BCS expert: Tigers need to become Oregon fans

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Thu Nov 15 23:14:22 GMT-04:00 2012

The path to a BCS bowl game is plain and simple, according to CBS Sports’ BCS/Bracketology expert Jerry Palm – win the remaining two games on the schedule and hope that Oregon wins out.

We spoke with Palm on Wednesday about Clemson’s chances for earning a BCS bowl berth, and Palm said it starts with winning the season’s final two games – the Tigers host N.C. State this weekend and finish the season with a home date against arch-rival South Carolina the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Palm said that Clemson needs to pull for Oregon to win out and win the Pac-12 championship.

“That is based on the Pac-12 not having another eligible team after Oregon wins the Pac-12 championship,” Palm told TigerNet. “That is a possibility that they have another eligible team. And if they don’t, then the Rose Bowl won’t take one. If they do have an eligible team and the Rose Bowl takes one, then Clemson is probably out. It is almost that simple – Notre Dame, the Big 12 and SEC will probably get the at-large teams as long as they have one, while the Pac-12 is shaky and probably won’t have one as long as Oregon continues to win.”

In other words, Clemson fans need to be fans of the Ducks as the season draws to a close.

“That is better for Clemson for Oregon to keep winning out,” Palm said. “If Oregon doesn’t win the league, then they are still probably going to the BCS. If someone were to beat Oregon – say in the Pac-12 title game – then Oregon is still probably going to the BCS. If someone beats Oregon and Oregon still wins the league, then that is a little different situation because Oregon is probably going to the Rose Bowl. So, Oregon going undefeated or winning the Pac-12 is the best possible scenario for Clemson.”

Palm said it has been unusual for teams like Florida St. and Clemson to have just one loss, and still have the computers not like them.

“A little. It is unusual to see such a disparity this time of year,” he said. “The reason that happens is because the league [the ACC] just isn’t that good. The league is really down. And the non-conference schedules for both of those schools – FSU especially – are just not good enough and a lot of that has to do with what happened to Auburn. The schedule is so bad you almost have to plan to have it that bad, even though you can’t control how your league turns out. And they both now have one quality non-conference opponent, and they haven’t played those teams yet. Even if they lose, they might actually move up in the computers a little bit. But, if Clemson beats South Carolina then they are in the BCS mix.”

And style points – aka winning big – only matters in the human polls, not to the computers.

Unfortunately no,” he said. “Computers aren’t allowed to consider margin of victory - it is all strength of schedule. That is the biggest flaw in the computer rankings is that margin of victory is not considered. That would certainly help Clemson and even FSU – but not enough where they would be considered for the national title.”

Palm said the Tigers are the best fit for the Sugar simply by process of elimination.

The ACC champ – most likely Florida St. – goes to the Orange Bowl, and Palm says the Sugar Bowl is likely Clemson’s destination because the Fiesta picks first and would take someone else before they take Clemson.

“I really don’t think they would end up in the Fiesta Bowl,” he said. “The Fiesta would want to take a Big 12 team or a team from the west or Notre Dame. I don’t see a scenario where Clemson is one of the first four teams picked [including the national championship game teams]. At that point, you would be talking about Clemson being a third or fourth choice.”