PFF previews Clemson-Texas Playoff matchup, keys to Tigers' CFP run

Cade Klubnik holds much of the keys to Clemson advancing in the Playoff.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Friday, December 13 2024

Pro Football Focus has released its preview of 5-seed Texas (11-2) hosting 12-seed Clemson (10-3) next Saturday (4 p.m. ET/TNT-MAX; $).

Clemson is currently an 11-point underdog in Vegas, and PFF's projection has the Longhorns near that number, at 11.7 points in favor of the SEC runner-up.

PFF gives Clemson the edge in the team passing grade comparison (85.8-75.7), but the Tigers are up against it with the Longhorns' pass defense.

"Throwing into the teeth of the Longhorns’ defense has been nearly impossible this season. They lead the nation in coverage grade and have accrued the second-most interceptions. Their pass rush, led by true freshman star Colin Simmons, ranks third in the FBS in pass-rush grade. Texas is one of the few defenses in college football with premier talent at all three levels, and the Longhorns are incredibly dominant in the passing game," said PFF's Dalton Wasserman.

Cade Klubnik is a favorite of the outlet, however.

"Klubnik is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country this season. His 87.3 passing grade and 27 big-time throws both rank inside the top 10 among FBS quarterbacks. He’s made far more positive plays downfield than in 2023, while his legs have also been a major factor in multiple games this season. Klubnik’s improvement is the primary reason the Tigers have made it to this point," Wasserman said.

On the other side, PFF sees a matchup of a Texas weakness against a Clemson strength.

"Quinn Ewers' performance in big spots has become the biggest question mark on this team," Wasserman said. "Even though his rematch against Georgia was his highest-graded game of the season, it was a microcosm of his inconsistent performance. He earned a 92.4 grade in the first half of that game before posting a 60.6 grade after halftime. If Ewers protects the football, Texas could win a national title. If not, it could get bounced earlier than expected."

"Clemson’s defense does an excellent job creating advantageous opportunities for its offense. The Tigers are tied with Notre Dame for the second-best turnover margin in the nation. They are well above average in terms of creating negative plays and sacks. There are moments on tape when Clemson hasn’t consistently played its best, but Dabo Swinney’s brand of complementary football is still evident in the team’s play."

Two major factors are at work for Clemson to sneak out of Texas with a win and go deep beyond that.

"By nearly every metric, Clemson is the weakest team in the playoff field. However, any team armed with a top-10 passer and a defense that creates takeaways is a threat. The latter portion of that makes them a particular danger to Texas given Quinn Ewers’ struggles to protect the football. The Tigers have the talent to put a scare into anybody if they can execute at a consistently high level," Wasserman said.