National analysts make Clemson-SMU ACC Championship predictions |
At least one College Football Playoff spot is on the line Saturday in Charlotte's ACC Championship Game between No. 8 SMU and No. 17 Clemson (8 p.m./ABC).
It just feels right for Dabo Swinney's Tigers to be in Bank of America Stadium this time of year -- pushing for an 8-0 record in the site and situation under the longtime Clemson head coach. There are plenty of national analysts who like Clemson to do just that. "You're going to get a very motivated team," FOX lead college football analyst Joel Klatt said. "They're gonna rely on that culture. I think that they can slow down SMU's offense, although I do think this is going to be a high-scoring affair. Here's what I've got on this one, SMU is favored by 2.5, I'm going with the outright upset here. Clemson wins this game, they cover that 2.5 and they get the win outright, 35-31, in a high-scoring game." He then projects a CFP bracket where Clemson ends up as the last conference champ in the 12-team field, heading to Notre Dame for a first-round matchup where the winner faces a projected Big 12 champ, Arizona State.
Only two of CBS Sports' seven expert picks are taking Clemson to pull off the slight upset, with three picking the Tigers to cover the 2.5-point spread.
In the Cover 3 Podcast, in addition to his CBS picks, Tom Fornelli does have Clemson covering the spread (and winning) as his lock of the week.
"To this point, the best defense the Mustangs have faced is Duke, and -- surprise! -- they had their worst performance of the season that day," Fornelli said. "They turned the ball over six times but somehow won by a point, thanks in part to two missed Duke field goals. It's doubtful we'll see six turnovers here, but we should see SMU struggle to move the ball.
"I know Clemson lost to South Carolina last week, but it's not as if the Tigers were overmatched. They simply came up short in a rivalry game. Toss in the fact that this 'neutral' site is much more of a home game for the Tigers, and since they absolutely have to have it, I'm going with Dabo Swinney and the boys."
Fornelli is joined by Cover 3 Podcast panelists Chip Patterson and Danny Kanell in taking Clemson with the spread.
247Sports' pick'em duo also both like the Tigers to both cover the spread and win:
Hummer (Clemson +2.5) — I can't quit Clemson! The evidence says this is a good but not great Tigers team. They lack elite wins. They've lost to the best teams on their schedule. SMU is a freaking wagon that scores on anyone. But I just can't quit the Tigers. SMU's offense is explosive but not necessarily efficient – 22nd in yards per play but 50th in success rate – which puts Clemson in a decent spot defensively if it can avoid busts. I also think Cade Klubnik is so good with pressure in his face he can mitigate what's been an elite SMU defensive front. Give me the upset in the ACC as Clemson steals a bid. … Clemson 24, SMU 21.
Crawford (Clemson +2.5) — Dabo Swinney's team is playing with house money, here. The Tigers' playoff hopes should've ended following Saturday's loss to South Carolina, but Syracuse came through in the clutch and now, Clemson has an opportunity to play its way into the 12-team bracket. They're playing in familiar Charlotte as well, where the Tigers have won a number of conference titles in recent years. I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. ... Clemson 27, SMU 20.
On the ESPN broadcast for the game Saturday, ESPN's Greg McElroy didn't make a prediction in his podcast, but he did point out the discrepancy in the teams when it comes to transfer portal use.
"In the event that SMU beats Clemson, we'll get back to the age-old conversation, 'Why doesn't Clemson go into the portal?' I think it's a fair debate," McElroy said, "especially when you take into account that 85% of SMU's total starts this season come from transfers. The only FBS team in the country who has more is Texas State. Clemson has zero starts from transfers this year. The only teams that join them in that are the academies."
ESPN's SportsCenter anchor Scott Van Pelt takes the Tigers +2.5 points: "This one's spooky. The line swung heavy in the direction of SMU after it was posted. We're on Clemson in a spot that they are very familiar with, in Charlotte, ACC title game."
National picks on Clemson-SMU
FOX's Joel Klatt: 35-31 Clemson
247Sports: Clemson 24-21 (Chris Hummer), Clemson 27-20 (Brad Crawford)
CBS Sports: Two for Clemson straight up (Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli), five for SMU SU (Richard Johnson, Brandon Marcello, Jerry Palm, Shehan Jeyarajah, Dennis Dodd), three for Clemson spread (Patterson, Fornelli, Johnson).
Cover 3 Podcast: Danny Kanell - Clemson +2.5
ESPN's Scott Van Pelt: +2.5 Clemson
ESPN's Pam Maldonado: +2.5 Clemson
Metric projections: FEI - 29-27 SMU (56.3%); SP+ - 30-25 SMU (63%); ESPN FPI - 53.7% SMU; CFBGraphs - 33-26 SMU (68.9%).
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