ESPN 'BCS-style' ranking has Clemson higher, updated ACC odds

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Everybody is trying to get a handle on configuring the new 12-team College Football Playoff, including the committee itself.

One ESPN predictor of CFP committee behavior in recent years is not holding true in the new format so far, which will seed the top four-ranked conference champions 1-4 for an automatic bye, then include at least one more conference champion and up to seven at-large teams.

Clemson is one of the teams that is lower than the committee usually projects, where the ESPN 'BCS-style' (Bowl Championship Series formula used from 1998-2003 for a national championship game) ranking would have the Tigers No. 16 instead of where they are currently, at No. 20. Conversely, Miami is three spots higher than that BCS-style ranking would have them (9th instead of 12th).

Clemson being underrated is counter to ESPN analyst Greg McElroy's idea that the Tigers are up at No. 20 because of "brand bias."

"The team benefitting most from brand bias I think is Clemson. Their best win right now is versus a 5-4 Virginia team. Their two games versus teams with a pulse are both losses and convincing ones at that," McElroy said.

The BCS-style Top 3 would be the same as the CFP ranking (Oregon, Ohio State and Texas) but Tennessee is three spots lower with the CFP than expected (7th instead of 4th) and 9-0 Army is a whopping seven spots below expectation (24th instead of 17th).

The SP+ ACC forecast in that same article gives Clemson a 9.3% chance to win the league, behind Miami (48.1%) and SMU (39.7%). Miami losing to Georgia Tech last weekend did affect the race though.

"The result of this upset? We have an ACC race again! Sort of! Miami's title odds fell by 14.0 percentage points to back under 50%," ESPN's Bill Connelly writes. "But the Canes are still the team most likely to reach the ACC championship game, and they'd be at least slight projected favorites over either SMU or Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina. Regardless, the gap closed a lot: Miami had a lead of about 30 percentage points over SMU in the title odds a week ago, and now it's an advantage of about 8.4 percentage points.

"Why is Clemson so far back when the Tigers have the same number of conference losses as Miami (and when SMU still has quite a bit of work to do in conference play)? Because the "record against common opponents" tiebreaker strikes again. Miami and SMU beat Louisville, Clemson did not, and now the Tigers have to hope that either Miami loses again or SMU loses twice so they can get into the ACC title game. SMU still has three more games to win, and Miami still has to win at Syracuse, but it's clear who the odds favor right now."

Assessing the ACC's most complete team, Clemson got some interest from industry sources according to another ESPN article:

(Via Heather Dinich): In the ACC, Miami, SMU -- and Clemson -- can still make it to the conference title game, and one coach told me that "when Clemson is on, I think they're the most complete team." Miami and SMU would follow, he said, but unless they play each other, they're hard to sort out. If the coach had to pick, though: "SMU might be the more complete team."

(Adam) Rittenberg: Clemson's surprising shakiness on defense has most ACC coaches I've talked to choosing between Miami and SMU. "Miami's the most talented team we've played against," one coach said. "Their offense is probably by far better than anything else we've seen."

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