ESPN ACC preview pits Tigers versus Seminoles for conference championship |
Brandon Rink
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- Tuesday, July 02 2024
ESPN did a deep analytical preview of the 2024 ACC football season, which has two very familiar names competing for the conference crown.
Florida State is given a 27.5% shot at an ACC Championship, which is followed closely by Clemson (23.8%), with only Miami also in double-digits (11.7). Facing a likely preseason No. 1 Georgia out of the gates in Atlanta, Clemson's odds at winning 11+ games in the regular season is at 12.4%, compared to 17.1% for Florida State. "It's basically FSU and Clemson (combined: 51.3% chance of winning the ACC) versus the field," ESPN's Bill Connelly said. "That's a little bit more aggressive than what ESPN's FPI has (45.5%) and quite a bit more confident than the ESPN BET odds that have more confidence in Miami and NC State, among others. But the general vibe here is set. Can FSU sufficiently hit the reset button after last year's awful ending? Can Clemson rebound as projected? Among the quintet of other challengers, who stands out?" The ESPN SP+ odds rank FSU No. 12 nationally and Clemson No. 14, with essentially a two-point spread in the Seminoles' favorite on a neutral field. The next tier is Miami (19), SMU (23), Louisville (28), NC State (29) and Virginia Tech (32). Clemson faces the latter three of that group with home dates versus the Cardinals and Wolfpack and a November trip to Virginia Tech, which joins Clemson-FSU in Connelly's Top 5 ACC games this season. "The last time a ranked Virginia Tech hosted a ranked opponent in front of a packed Lane Stadium was 2018 (No. 6 Notre Dame 45, No. 24 Tech 23). Obviously the Hokies have some work to do if they plan on being ranked in early November, but it's on the table. This one could be dynamite," Connelly said. Connelly said back in May that he doesn't see Clemson competing for national titles with its lack of transfer portal use. He had that in his critiques of the Tigers going into 2024 as well, but he also sees some positives. "Without transfers, Clemson has become far less nimble than other top-15ish schools when it comes to addressing weaknesses. Case in point: the offense. After averaging a No. 50 ranking in offensive SP+ in 2021-22, Swinney hired TCU's Garrett Riley as coordinator and handed the full-time reins to five-star sophomore Cade Klubnik. The Tigers ranked 51st in offensive SP+. Meanwhile, an inexperienced defense was still good, but it fell to 21st in defensive SP+, the worst in nine seasons," Connelly said. "This is a rubber-meeting-road season for Swinney and his methods. Now that he's let a new OC and quarterback get to know each other for a year, and now that he's allowed exciting young defenders to get their feet wet, it's time for both units to take solid steps forward in 2024. And they might, even if the season begins with an immediate setback against Georgia... "The pass rush didn't get home quite as much as it should have considering their 46% blitz rate (second-highest in the country), but the Tigers still ranked second in passing success rate allowed and sixth in raw QBR. But there were some breakdowns in an all-or-nothing run defense. That's not guaranteed to improve without leading tackler Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and four of last year's top five linemen, but it's hard to look at the defensive two-deep and not think, 'Yeah, they're going to be fine.'"
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