Clemson's Playoff chances go up with ESPN projections

Clemson now has to watch and wait on ACC chances around facing two Palmetto State foes to close the regular season.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Sunday, November 17 2024

Clemson saw its College Football Playoff chances go up with ESPN's Playoff Predictor after a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh on Saturday.

The Tigers' number went up three percent to 20% now, which is 16th-best currently. Even if the tiebreakers don't provide Clemson a path to Charlotte's ACC Championship Game, the Playoff Predictor still gives the Tigers a 30% shot to make it as an at-large team with a 10-2 finish.

Up to 7-1 in ACC play now, ESPN's projection bumped the Tigers four percent in chances to win the league (13), which trails Miami (50%) and SMU (36%).

Clemson's easiest road to the ACC Championship Game is Miami losing one of its final two games (home versus Wake Forest or at Syracuse). SMU losing twice (at Virginia; hosting Cal) would also do the job, and an SMU loss just at Virginia next week would possibly make another tiebreaker viable if Louisville also loses to Pitt that same upcoming Saturday (It would give Virginia still a chance to out-rank Louisville in the ACC standings outright and be a better win for Clemson in a potential tiebreaker with SMU).

Given SMU's win over BC increasing their ACC chances, The Athletic projection dropped CFP and ACC title percentages for the Tigers from loftier numbers last week, falling from 38% to 25% this week for the CFP and 36% to 24% for the league crown.

That model has a projected final CFP seeding of Oregon (Big Ten champ), Texas (SEC champ), Miami (ACC champ) and Colorado (Big 12 champ), then 5. Ohio State v. 12. Boise State, 6. Penn State v. 11. Alabama, 7. Georgia v. 10. Ole Miss and 8. Indiana v. 9. Notre Dame in the first-round matchups. The quarterfinals through the national title game will be at neutral sites.

ESPN's Heather Dinich projects Clemson to move up three spots to No. 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings, with No. 10 Georgia being the last at-large team currently.

CBS Sports predicts Miami to win the ACC and Indiana to be the last at-large team, with a Duke's Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3) projection versus Minnesota undaunted for Jerry Palm. 247Sports' bowl call is Clemson facing Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27). College Football Network calls for a return to Orlando and the Pop-Tarts Bowl versus a familiar opponent there, Iowa State.

Clemson is up to No. 12 in ESPN's Football Power Index, a spot ahead of South Carolina. The Tigers are also a spot ahead of the Gamecocks in SP+ metric at No. 14.