Clemson-Wake Forest game projections

Clemson should be able to put up some points in Winston-Salem this weekend.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Tuesday, October 08 2024

Clemson football looks to wrap its October road trips in style at Wake Forest this weekend.

What's on order in Winston-Salem Saturday? Apparently points.

There is a 60.5-point total over/under set currently, which is the highest in a Clemson game yet this season, to go with the No. 10 Tigers (4-1, 3-0 ACC) being a 20-point favorite on the Deacs (2-3, 1-1).

According to CFB Graphs, Wake Forest is next to last of all FBS teams (133) in success rate allowed (48.6%) and dead last versus dropbacks (49.4%). They are 85th in defensive SP+ and 56th on offense, compared to a No. 17 Clemson offense and No. 23 Clemson defense rating.

The metric projections do not see quite as large a margin as the Vegas spread so far, but they all give at least an 83% win projection for the Tigers on the road. The FEI is near 90% for Clemson (89.5).

Clemson covered the week's opening line but not the one at kickoff for last week at Florida State, which settled at 16.5 before a 29-13 Tigers win.

Clemson went 1-3 on the road in the ACC last year, falling as a 12-point favorite at Duke (28-7), a 6.5-point favorite at Miami (28-20 in 2OT), and a 10-point favorite at NC State (24-17).

The Tigers were a 21-point favorite over Wake Forest last year and won 17-12. Dabo Swinney's team last covered a number in the series against an Atlantic Division-winning Demon Deacons team in 2021, a 48-27 victory.

The Tigers have won each meeting over Wake Forest since a 2008 defeat ended the Tommy Bowden era, but under Dave Clawson since 2014, Wake Forest has covered the spread in 7-of-10 matchups.

Clemson-Wake Forest projections

FEI: 40-22 Clemson (89.5%)

SP+: 36-21 Clemson (83%)

ESPN FPI: 87.4% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Clemson 38-25 (83.5%)

🫡😤 WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS 😱😼

Ohio State 29, Oregon 26
Texas 33, OU 19
Ole Miss 34, LSU 28
PSU 33, USC 24
Utah 28, Ari St 22
Vols 34, Gators 23
BYU 30, Arizona 26
Iowa St 29, WVU 26
K-State 34, Colorado 25

It's Football Every Day time!https://t.co/w7ALlZmRqT pic.twitter.com/TesaEVmxwU
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 6, 2024