Clemson-Virginia Tech game projections

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It's safe to say that no one is feeling great going into Clemson's trip to Virginia Tech this Saturday (3:30 p.m./ESPN).

The Tigers are coming off a listless effort in a 12-point upset loss under the Death Valley lights to Louisville, while Virginia Tech lost in overtime for the second time and by a single possession for the third time on the road this season, 38-31 at Syracuse.

A common refrain in recent seasons, the Tigers must reset expectations and bounce back with greatly diminished dreams. The Hokies are just looking to get healthy (they were down a starting QB and RB last week) and bowl eligible after their dark-horse ACC bid ended.

Clemson is currently a 6.5-point favorite for coming out of Lane Stadium with a win. The line hasn't moved a tremendous amount from offseason lines that had Clemson with a 5.5-point edge.

The metrics display a better Clemson team than the overall vibes, and certainly, the Louisville performance show, while Virginia Tech is seen as better than a 5-4 record currently:

Clemson-Virginia Tech by the numbers

Clemson SP+ (15 OVR): Off. - 11; Def. - 25; STs - 124
VT SP+ (27 OVR): Off. - 31; Def. - 37; STs - 24

Clemson FEI (14 OVR): Off. - 8; Def. - 28; STs - 98
VT FEI (28 OVR): Off. - 60; Def. - 20; STs - 42

Clemson FPI (16 OVR): Off. - 7; Def. - 30; STs - 130
VT FPI (25 OVR): Off. - 48; Def. - 17; STs - 40

Compared to Louisville, Virginia Tech trends a little lower offensively, a little better defensively and a little better on special teams.

The game projection metrics mostly favor Clemson but not against the spread, but CFB-Graphs does see the game as a virtual toss-up (50.4% to VT).

Of note in that model, Virginia Tech is 101st in offensive success rate but 56th in Expected Points Added (EPA) margin*, while Clemson is 38th in defensive success rate and 37th in EPA margin. Clemson is 22nd in offensive success rate and a respectable 32nd in EPA margin. On defense, Clemson is eighth in third/fourth down success (29.7%) against a Hokies offense that's 87th there (39%).

Clemson-Virginia Tech projections

FEI: 31-26 Clemson (63.9%)

SP+: 30-27 Clemson (58%)

ESPN FPI: 62.4% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Virginia Tech 30.1-29.98 (50.4%)

(From College Football Data: *Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game. Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).

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