Clemson-Virginia game projections

Phil Mafah and the Tigers have been impressive in ACC action at home lately.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Tuesday, October 15 2024

Clemson aims for 5-0 in ACC action hosting Virginia Saturday (noon/ACCN) before an open date to come next week.

For a second consecutive week, the Tigers are a three-touchdown favorite, but there isn't unanimous agreement on such a wide margin.

There certainly isn't a wider gap in projections this week than to CFB Graphs, which only picks the Tigers by three points.

While the FEI, SP+ and FPI each have Top 20-rated units for Clemson's offense and defense, Clemson is 39th in the expected points added metric on offense and 59th on defense, for a 49th overall margin. Virginia isn't far behind there at 55th in EPA margin, struggling particularly in net points per drive offensively (85th; 1.57) compared to Clemson's No. 22 ranking there (2.56).

Even as high on Clemson as they are, with the FEI giving the Tigers a 91.5% win projection this week, the other metrics tracked here don't favor the Tigers covering a 21-point spread.

Clemson improved to 4-2 against the final spread number by easily covering the 21 points at Wake Forest last week, 49-14.

The over/under grew to 63 points, which was hit on the money. This week, it's slightly lower, currently at 57.5 points.

Virginia is 4-1-1 against the spread this year, covering the number in three games in a row with two straight-up wins -- including on the road at Coastal Carolina, 43-24, as a 4-point favorite.

At home in ACC play, Clemson has both won and covered the spread in four consecutive games, and you could make it five with quasi-conference opponent Notre Dame also in that stretch. That's after starting the 2023 season 1-3 ATS at home.

Virginia is 57th in the FEI ratings compared to Clemson at ninth, matching a 76th-best offense and No. 41 defense against Clemson's No. 9 offense and 16th-best defense.

Clemson-Virginia projections

FEI: 38-19 Clemson (91.5%)

SP+: 35-18 Clemson (85%)

ESPN FPI: 89% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Clemson 31-28 (60.5%)

🏃‍♂️😤 WEEK 8 SP+ PICKS 👯💁

Texas 32, UGA 25
Tide 29, Vols 26
Miami 32, Louisville 26
Ducks 43, Boilers 17
LSU 32, Hogs 27
ND 33, GT 22
A&M 36, Miss St 19
Michigan 26, Illinois 21
Iowa St 30, UCF 21
K-State 32, WVU 27
BYU 32, Okla St 23
Duke 26, FSU 18https://t.co/w7ALlZmjBl pic.twitter.com/7Fiqh36sWz
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 13, 2024