Clemson-South Carolina game projections

Fortunes have changed on one side of the rivalry since last year's meeting, but will it make a difference Saturday in Death Valley?

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Nov 26, 2024, 4:16 PM

Big stakes and a big shift in the narrative.

Based on preseason expectations, Clemson (9-2) being in position to snag a College Football Playoff spot at this point wouldn’t have surprised many, but for the rival Gamecocks (8-3), they had a 5.5-win total over/under this offseason – and South Carolina could have a similarly viable CFP opportunity this Saturday in Death Valley (noon/ESPN).

Clemson is currently a 2.5-point favorite, and their respective metric rankings are very close overall:

Clemson-South Carolina by the numbers

Clemson SP+ (15 OVR): Off. - 12; Def. - 20; STs - 109
SC SP+ (14 OVR): Off. - 25; Def. - 14; STs - 42

Clemson FEI (14 OVR): Off. - 7; Def. - 25; STs - 101
SC FEI (12 OVR): Off. - 39; Def. - 6; STs - 17

Clemson FPI (11 OVR): Off. - 6; Def. - 20; STs - 127
SC FPI (19 OVR): Off. - 42; Def. - 8; STs - 75

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Looking through searchable past projections, FEI has South Carolina as a favorite in the series for the first time since 2013, where it had the Gamecocks covering a 2.5-point spread (30-23 projected score) – and they ultimately did, 31-17. FEI calls for a slim South Carolina win Saturday, 27-26.

The SP+ metric has the same score but Clemson’s way, and CFB-Graphs picks the Gamecocks by just two points. ESPN’s FPI has the widest disparity one way or the other, giving Clemson a 57.1% win projection, reflecting the higher ranking for Clemson in the FPI.

South Carolina is an impressive 8-3 against the spread this year, with seven of its games going over the point total as well.

In the series, the favorite (Clemson) has covered three of the last five meetings, but the last favorite defeat was in the 2022 Death Valley meeting, a 31-30 Tigers loss despite being a 14.5-point favorite going in.

This is only the second time since 2015 that the Gamecocks have been within single digits on the spread. Barring a midweek shift, they haven’t been favored since the 2013 matchup (2.5 points).

Clemson-South Carolina projections

FEI: SC 27-26 (51.6% SC)

SP+: Clemson 27-26 (52% Clemson)

ESPN FPI: 57.1% Clemson

CFBGraphs: SC 28-26 (56.4% SC)