Clemson-Florida State game projections

Cade Klubnik looks to get a fourth career win as a starter away from Clemson versus the Seminoles.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Tuesday, October 01 2024

What ten months can do to a game's perception.

Entering 2024, Florida State came off a 13-0 regular season, and also a thorough beating with an opt-out-ridden roster versus Georgia in the Orange Bowl. The Seminoles were still the ACC favorite and the lone Top 10 team for the league, sporting a new transfer QB and a familiar face to Tiger fans with DJ Uiagalelei (who might not play this week now).

FSU was installed as a 4-point favorite over the Tigers in the offseason and had a 61% projection with ESPN's Football Power Index.

After a 1-4 'Noles start -- and 3-1 for the Top 15 Tigers, Clemson is a 14.5-point favorite with an 80% FPI projection in the matchup.

In the metrics we track here, at least one likes the Tigers to cover that new Vegas number, with the FEI taking Clemson by 16 (86.6% projection).

The Tigers are up to No. 13 in the SP+ ratings, with a No. 17 offense and No. 28 defense, but the Seminoles are not as big an underdog there, at just eight points.

FSU is hanging in the SP+ Top 50 with a No. 75-rated offense, No. 31 defense and No. 1 special teams group.

Clemson has covered the spread in regulation time each matchup with Mike Norvell at FSU, but with the Tigers a 1-point favorite last year, the Seminoles pulled out a 31-24 win in overtime.

FSU is 1-4 ATS this season and haven't been close to it in the losses (20 points from the spread on average in those games).

Clemson has covered the number in each of the last three games after the tough opener with Georgia.

Clemson-Florida State projections

FEI: 35-19 Clemson (86.6%)

SP+: 30-22 Clemson (68%)

ESPN FPI: 80% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Clemson 33-23 (78.3%)

😍🧐 WEEK 6 SP+ PICKS 🤩😼

Mizzou 29, A&M 24
Ohio St 29, Iowa 12
Louisville 30, SMU 24
UGA 34, Auburn 20
Clemson 30, FSU 22
Miami 33, Cal 23
Ole Miss 32, S Caro 21
Huskies 24, Wolverines 23
Ducks 39, Spartans 11

Last 2 weeks: 55.7% ATS, 59.4% O/Uhttps://t.co/w7ALlZmRqT pic.twitter.com/rJD8fjMjo0
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 29, 2024