With 99 days to kickoff, what would it take for Clemson's return to the Playoff? |
Just ninety-nine to go, and it’s time to talk about football.
That’s right, the Tigers kick off the 2024 football season in 99 days against Georgia in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. We’ve talked golf, basketball, and baseball this week, and it’s time to throw a little football back into the mix. And no, not the transfer portal, NIL, Dabo-might-be-done talk. We were driving to Charlotte early Thursday morning to cover Clemson’s ACC Tournament game against Miami, and the sun-drenched miles gave me a chance to sit back for the first time in a while and ponder what this season might look like for the Tigers. What prompted it? Because it’s just 59 days until the ACC Football Kickoff in Charlotte, and I was thinking that while it seems like the season is still an entire summer away, it will be here before you know it. And this year will look a lot different with the 12-team College Football Playoff. Let’s look at that first. As mentioned before, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded Nos. 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round. The higher-seeded teams will play host in their first-round games. Here's a breakdown of the first-round matchups: No. 5 vs. No. 12 No. 6 vs. No. 11 No. 7 vs. No. 10 No. 8 vs. No. 9 New Year's Six bowl games will be introduced in the quarterfinal round. The semifinals will be played in bowls rotating while the national championship host site is determined through bids by prospective host sites. The 2024 quarterfinals will be held at the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. The 2024 semifinals will be held at the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl, and Atlanta and Mercedes-Benz Stadium will host the National Championship Game. The Tigers' goal must be to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and earn that bye by being ranked among the top four. We all know that teams tend to be a little beat up at the end of the year, and seeds 5-12 (seven at-large teams and one more conference champion for sure) will have to endure an extra week of play while those top four seeds will have earned a rest. If Clemson goes 10-2 and wins the ACC, you have to figure they’re in the four byes easy. Would 9-3 and an ACC title do it? That’s hard to say. And if they don’t win the ACC, they would have to be among the other highest-ranked teams to be in the mix. Even though the field is 12, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for error. We plan to write another piece analyzing Clemson’s schedule and predicting its wins and losses. But for right now, I look at the schedule and feel like a 9-3 regular season is the floor to make the Playoff byes, while 10-2 makes you feel good, and 11-1 or 12-0 is the ceiling. And yes, it’s no surprise to anyone that the Oct. 5th date at Florida State might be the one to tell the tale. Brandon Rink: It's interesting to consider the narratives around the program if this expanded CFP had been in place in 2022, retroactively resulting in seven playoff appearances in nine seasons for Clemson football. With another Clemson-Georgia neutral site matchup ahead, it's also worth noting that Swinney's Tigers were a 3-point favorite over the Bulldogs in 2021, in Charlotte, ahead of two consecutive national title runs for Georgia. Now, there's a 13.5-point line in the SEC border rival's favor this time around. I present those contrasts because for a proud program that Swinney has built, which is undoubtedly taking a barrage of arrows from critics over the lack of transfer portal use, there are a couple key ideas at work. Clemson doesn't want to be seen as a double-digit dog to a team it was a favorite on not all that long ago, and it looks to show the program is ready to return to the thick of the national championship contenders race. That said, the ACC Tigers don't need to completely flip that big spread in the opener to make a much-needed CFP return for the program's prestige. Winning the conference will be enough and likely enough to be a top-four seed for that bye come December. Then it's just a matter of playing your best at the right time to make a run in the varying neutral site venues. Swinney and the Tiger faithful will take having the pie and eating it too on returning to undefeated campaigns deep into December, but now five years removed from such a season, 2024 could very well set the standard going forward. Is Clemson a national contender or just an ACC contender? And what form does that take in the shifting conference picture ahead?
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