Updated Clemson Playoff ranking projection, CFP chances on ESPN after insane Saturday

It was a very good day for Clemson's at-large CFP bid chances.

by TigerNet Staff - Nov 24, 2024, 12:40 AM

Total chaos.

It's what No. 17 Clemson needed for a College Football Playoff at-large bid chance, and it's exactly what the Tigers got with one weekend of regular-season action to go in the sport.

Saturday's upset count in the CFP Top 16? Five, in No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma (24-3), No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (24-17), No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (28-23), No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn (43-41 in multiple OTs) and No. 16 Colorado at Kansas (37-21).

For any Clemson at-large bid, however, the most necessary result is a win over rival and No. 18 South Carolina on Saturday in Death Valley (noon/ESPN). Clemson is a 2.5-point favorite currently.

ESPN's projection for the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday doesn't move Clemson up as much as you might think -- just slotting the Tigers up one to No. 16, keeping Texas A&M at No. 15, and moving a team that beat the Aggies, South Carolina, to No. 14.

That projection's call for the six Top 16 teams that lost Saturday: No. 11 Indiana (last at-large spot), No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 18 BYU and No. 20 Colorado.

The Athletic's model bumped Clemson up to a 47% chance to make the CFP, as the last team left out currently and Tennessee getting the last at-large spot (75% CFP chance for the Vols).

If Clemson were to jump all five upset teams from Saturday, the Tigers would still need to move up at least one more spot for an at-large position if they cannot get a No. 8 Miami upset at Syracuse, which would clinch an ACC Championship spot for Clemson. An ACC Championship spot and win would mean an automatic bye and Top 4 seed if the Tigers finish in the Top 4-ranked conference champions.

One ESPN Playoff projection did include Clemson as an at-large team late Saturday, with David Hale's call: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. SMU 4. Boise State 5. Ohio State 6. Notre Dame 7. Georgia 8. Miami 9. Tennessee 10. Penn State 11. Clemson 12. Arizona State. That projection coming true would mean a first-round trip for the Tigers to Notre Dame and then the winner facing SMU in the next round.

CBS projects Clemson to move to No. 13 in Sunday's AP Top 25.

"No major changes expected after improving to 9-2 with a win against The Citadel. There's no really bad losses for Clemson (Georgia and Louisville), but with Pitt perhaps being the 'best win,' a lot rides on next week's game against South Carolina if we're going to discuss a path for Clemson to finish significantly higher in the rankings," said Chip Patterson.

NBC projection