National College Football Playoff predictions for Clemson

Clemson is playing with 'house money' in Austin after a surprise late surge to an ACC title.

by TigerNet Staff - Dec 9, 2024, 4:00 PM

The College Football Playoff national champion could start their postseason path on a college campus for the first time.

Clemson (10-3) is in one of four games hosted on campus. It will take on the highest-ranked team by seeding in the round, SEC runner-up Texas (11-2). The Longhorns are an 11.5-point favorite (4 p.m. ET/TNT on Dec. 21).

The Athletic gives Clemson a 5% chance to make it to the Jan. 20 national championship in Atlanta ($) and a 28% shot to leave Austin happy with a win and a second trip to Atlanta this season, to face 4-seed and Big 12 champ Arizona State in the Peach Bowl (1 ET/ESPN on Jan. 1). ESPN's FPI gives the Tigers only a 19.5% win projection against the Longhorns, which are No. 1 in the FPI rankings overall.

All of ESPN's panelists in this prediction take Texas, from by four points to as much as 19. Adam Rittenberg picks the home side by eight points, 24-16.

"Coach Dabo Swinney's Tigers are the rare conference champion playing with house money -- a three-loss team that many (including me) wrote off after a 12-point home loss to Louisville," Rittenberg said. "But Clemson won another ACC title and will head to Texas behind quarterback Cade Klubnik, an Austin native who would love nothing more than to end the Longhorns' season. Texas certainly will need more from its own quarterback, Quinn Ewers, who has more interceptions (three) than touchdown passes (two) in his past two games. How much Arch Manning will we see against a Clemson defense that has fallen off a bit this season?

"Texas ultimately has home field and the best unit: a defense that can stifle Phil Mafah and Clemson's run game and pressure Klubnik. The Longhorns allow only 12.1 points per game and 4 yards per play. Clemson grabs the early lead before Texas clamps down, as Gunnar Helm hauls in two touchdowns from Ewers."

ESPN bet analyst Pam Maldonado likes Clemson to at least cover +11 points.

"The 11-point spread appears to underestimate Dabo Swinney's talented Clemson squad," Maldonado said. "Quarterback Cade Klubnik, having already proved himself capable against top-tier defenses, is the key to the Tigers' competitiveness. Texas' defense, though strong, hasn't encountered a passing attack as formidable as Clemson's this season. Klubnik's ability to extend plays and make accurate throws on the run will challenge the Longhorns' secondary. The spread seems to overlook Clemson's championship experience and Klubnik's knack for elevating his game in crucial moments, utilizing his mobility when needed. Covering this spread is a realistic possibility for the Tigers."

USA TODAY takes the Longhorns to hold the home field and advance. Texas is picked to eventually fall in the semifinals to Oregon.

"Texas will benefit from the payoff for losing the SEC: the No. 5 seed," Paul Myerberg writes. "That results in a draw of three-ranked Clemson and then Arizona State, the lowest-ranked conference champion in the quarterfinals. The Tigers can pull the upset here but it starts with putting the game in Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers’ hands and demands error-free football from quarterback Cade Klubnik. Look for the Texas talent level to eventually win out with a higher level of overall consistency and key a double-digit win."

FOX Sports also takes the Longhorns.

"The Longhorns are coming off an emotional loss to Georgia, while the Tigers are coming off a brilliant ACC title win against an SMU team that also made the 12-team field. Texas’ defense will need to show it can stop Klubnik from escaping the pocket and hurting them in the run-game like Georgia backup QB Gunner Stockton did in the SEC Championship Game," RJ Young says.

Sporting News picks Texas as well.

"This could be a shootout if Clemson brings its “A” game, but only if the Tigers can establish a running game with Phil Mafah against a Texas defense that allows just 3.1 yards per carry. Texas is 0-2 when Quinn Ewers has a completion percentage of less than 60%. Can Clemson make enough plays in the secondary?" Bill Bender asked.

Both SI national analysts take Texas also.