Clemson's move in the latest College Football Playoff rankings

Barrett Carter and the Tigers look to be in Playoff position one way or another after Saturday.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Nov 26, 2024, 8:32 PM

A chaotic college football weekend opened up the possibilities for a Clemson at-large College Football Playoff bid. The CFP committee weighed in on just how viable that option is with Tuesday’s latest rankings.

After six teams in the CFP Top 16 lost last week, Clemson moved up five spots to No. 12, ahead of Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina in the new Top 15.

"If Clemson's going to get in the mix for an at-large, it won't affect further if they make the ACC Championship Game - but if they can beat South Carolina at home on Saturday, then Dabo Swinney's Tigers, regardless if they play for the conference title, really have a chance," CFP rankings show host Rece Davis said.

According to ESPN’s metrics, Clemson is 18th in strength of record, 12th in game control and 57th in strength of schedule. In that at-large mix and unable to make a conference title game, a three-loss Alabama is No. 11 in strength of record, fifth in game control and 11th in strength of schedule, and three-loss Ole Miss is No. 19 in strength of record, No. 12 in game control and No. 27 in strength of schedule. One-loss Indiana is No. 7 in strength of record, No. 7 in game control and No. 51 in strength of schedule, and two-loss Tennessee is No. 8 in strength of record, No. 11 in game control and No. 22 in strength of schedule.

Clemson of course finishes up the regular season with South Carolina at home on Saturday (noon/ESPN). Ole Miss closes at home with Mississippi State on Friday (3:30 p.m./ABC) and Tennessee heads to Vandy (noon/ABC), Alabama hosts Auburn (3:30 p.m./ABC) and Indiana hosts Purdue (7 p.m./FS1) on Saturday.

In the traditional polls, Clemson was ranked No. 12 in both the Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. The SP+ metric ranks Clemson 15th and the Football Power Index and FEI rank it 14th.

As it stands from this week's rankings, the CFP field would be seeded as: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Miami 4. Boise State 5. Ohio State 6. Penn State 7. Notre Dame 8. Georgia 9. Tennessee 10. SMU 11. Indiana 12. Arizona State.

After Saturday's action, The Athletic's CFP projection model bumped Clemson up to a 47% chance to make the playoffs, as the last team left out currently and Tennessee getting the last at-large spot (74% CFP chance for the Vols). ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives the Tigers only the 17th-best shot at making the Playoff, a percentage point above rival South Carolina (24% to 23%). With a win Saturday but no ACC Championship berth, that moves to 37%.

Clemson’s only path to that conference title game is Miami losing to Syracuse on Saturday (3:30 p.m./ESPN). They are a 10.5-point favorite.

The College Football Playoff field will feature 12 teams, with the Top 4 seeds going to the four highest-ranked conference champions for a first-round bye and the remaining spots going to next highest-ranked teams by the CFP committee, with one more conference champion guaranteed a spot in that final eight according to their ranking.

The CFP will play the first round on campus sites, with seeds 5-8 hosting seeds 9-12. The quarterfinal round will be hosted in bowl sites, with the Rose, Peach, Sugar, and Fiesta bowls, and then the semifinals will be in the Cotton and Orange bowls. The national championship will be held on Jan. 20 in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

2024 CFP committee: Chris Ault (former head coach and athletics director, University of Nevada), Chet Gladchuk (athletics director, U.S. Naval Academy), Jim Grobe (former head coach, Ohio University, Wake Forest and Baylor), Warde Manuel (chair) (athletics director, University of Michigan), Randall McDaniel (College and Pro Football Hall of Fame member and former All-American offensive lineman, Arizona State University); Gary Pinkel (former head coach, University of Toledo and University of Missouri); Mack Rhoades (athletics director, Baylor University); Mike Riley (former college head coach, Oregon State and Nebraska, as well as head coach in the NFL, CFL, WLAF, AAF and USFL), David Sayler (athletics director, Miami University, OH), Will Shields (College and Pro Football Hall of Fame member and former All-American offensive lineman, University of Nebraska), Kelly Whiteside (professor in Sports Media and Journalism, Montclair State University; longtime sportswriter, USA Today, Sports Illustrated and Newsday), Carla Williams (athletics director, University of Virginia) and Hunter Yurachek (athletics director, University of Arkansas).

CFP Top 25 - 11/26

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Notre Dame

6. Miami

7. Georgia

8. Tennessee

9. SMU

10. Indiana

11. Boise State