Clemson-Louisville game projections

Clemson's offense is rated as high as Top 5 by metrics.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Tuesday, October 29 2024

Former Atlantic Division foe Louisville is back on the schedule, and Clemson looks to keep its record perfect, in a couple ways.

The Tigers push for 6-0 in ACC action and 9-0 all-time against the Cardinals (7:30 p.m./ESPN), who missed Clemson in the scheduling last year and in the pandemic-affected 2020 season after playing each season from 2014-19 as division rivals.

For the first time since the Georgia opener, Clemson is not currently a three-score-plus favorite, given a 10.5-point advantage by consensus odds.

After a dominant three-game stretch after the opener, Dabo Swinney's Tigers have won comfortably but not covered the spread in two of the last three games. On the other side, Louisville has not covered the number in its last five games, but they did lose a shootout at home to No. 5 Miami, 52-45.

Projections for the matchup have arrived at similar scores, with FEI picking the Tigers 38-27, SP+ taking Clemson 33-25, and CFB-Graphs predicting a home team win 34-28.

The SP+ rankings assess its No. 14 Clemson with a Top 25 offense (10) and defense (25) but lacking on special teams (103). Louisville is not far behind at No. 22 overall, with a No. 19 offense, No. 38 defense, and No. 119 special teams group.

FEI's ratings have Clemson at No. 11 overall, with a No. 5 offense, No. 28 defense, and No. 71 special teams group. That's opposite a No. 26 Louisville, with a No. 16 offense, No. 51 defense and No. 23 special teams group.

So far this season as a road underdog, Louisville lost 31-24 at Notre Dame, but they did grab a win as a slight underdog at Miami last year, 38-31, in a season they made the ACC Championship Game.

Clemson has won eight in a row as a double-digit home favorite, stretching back to the 2022 regular season finale against South Carolina (14.5-point favorite; 31-30 loss).

Clemson-Louisville projections

FEI: 38-27 Clemson (76.9%)

SP+: 33-25 Clemson (69%)

ESPN FPI: 67.1% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Clemson 34-28 (65.9%)