Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Miami projections

Clemson's defense will likely face another dual-threat QB challenge.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 16 10:43:48 GMT-04:00 2022

Saturday’s action in Death Valley features two teams that went from lows to highs over the previous two weeks, but there’s just one side here that’s had a lot more of the highs this year.

Miami has scuffled in year one under Mario Cristobal to a 5-5 record, losing those five within a seven-game stretch to a 45-3 home rivalry defeat at the hands of Florida State to start the month.

In a two-week span, the Hurricanes have posted their worst (55.1) and best (84.4) Pro Football Focus game grades against FBS competition, recovering to grab a road win at Georgia Tech last week, 35-14.

Clemson (9-1) can sympathize with its worst game grade also on Nov. 5, at Notre Dame (55.3), and an improved effort last week topping Louisville (77.2).

Here’s where the teams rank over the season:

Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (14): 29 | 24 | 30

MIA SP+ ranks (72): 79 | 56 | 5

CU FPI ranks (9): 27 | 21 | 31

MIA FPI ranks (63): 85 | 67 | 67

CU FEI ranks (19): 42 | 17 | | 22

MIA FEI ranks (87): 93 | 59 | 24

–

The Hurricanes ended a nine-quarter run without an offensive touchdown with an 11-play, 75-yard and 6:16 touchdown drive to set the tone in Atlanta last week. Miami went to the strengths of third-string freshman QB Jacurri Brown, who totaled three runs and had his second pass attempt connect with talented tight end Will Mallory for a 22-yard score.

Jacurri Brown 1st Career Touchdown!

Canes up 7-0 pic.twitter.com/JjLZlpQASV
— Grant (@NMDgrant) November 12, 2022

Brown went on to complete 14-of-19 passes for 136 yards and three TDs, adding 87 rushing yards on 19 carries (long of 24).

Jacurri Brown making something out of nothing pic.twitter.com/Ikk0RYWaNU
— Grant (@NMDgrant) November 12, 2022

In his first career start, Jacurri Brown was responsible for 3 touchdowns in the 35-14 win!@CanesFootball pic.twitter.com/8s84GCr0GK
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 13, 2022

Starter Tyler Van Dyke came into the season with some hype but missed last week with a shoulder injury. He didn’t finish out the FSU loss and has overall underwhelming numbers this season (63.7 CMP%/7.2 yards per pass/10 TD-4 INT in eight games). Redshirt freshman Jake Garcia has also started a 2022 game, the 14-12 four-overtime victory at Virginia, where he completed 15-of-31 passes for 125 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.

As you can see above, Miami’s defense is as average as it gets and the offense has been one of the worst at the Power 5 conference level over the year (only five worse according to the FEI). Brown brought a different look last week that was much needed, and it’s an understatement to say he’s their best chance to move the ball on Clemson Saturday.

Three Miami players to watch

1. S Kamren Kinchens - Kinchens is the top-rated safety in college football by PFF grade (90) with a nation-leading six interceptions (three coming last week at Georgia Tech) with only 52.9% of passes thrown his way being completed.

2. RB Henry Parrish Jr. - Parrish missed last week at Georgia Tech due to injury, but he’s been an impact player in Miami wins, topping the 100-yard mark in three that he played in with four touchdowns. Cristobal said this week they expect him back for Saturday.

3. CB Tyrique Stevenson - Stevenson joined Kinchens on PFF’s team of the week with an interception and a pass breakup. He has two picks on the season and four pass breakups.

Odds

Clemson -19; 48 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 35-17 (86% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 90.7% Clemson projection

TeamRankings*: 33.5-13.9 Clemson

FEI: Clemson 31-13 Clemson (89.3% Clemson projection)

MIAMI @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/zYTDd8m9IV
— parker, u n v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) November 15, 2022

*In the above link as well.

Analysis: Clemson has been a hard team to nail down projections-wise and that’s evidenced in the spread picks, where they are 5-5 against the final number. The numbers are a little worse as a double-digit favorite, going 2-3 overall and 0-3 at home against the spread. The last one was a comeback thriller against Syracuse as a two-touchdown favorite that resulted in a 27-21 win. Metrics are in agreement generally that the Hurricanes will lose by double-digits but not quite by 19. How each team bounced back last week gives me some pause, but the odds have tended to overvalue Miami this year (2-8 ATS), so I cautiously take the Tigers here. Pick: -19 Clemson (5-5 on ATS picks; 8-2 on O/U this year – game score picks in TigerNet’s weekly predictions story).

What’s left after this weekend

11/26 v. South Carolina: 6-4, were rolled at Florida, 38-6, and host No. 5 Tennessee on Saturday before heading to Clemson next week. SP+ - 46. FPI - 62. FEI - 60.

12/3 v. North Carolina: 9-1, clinched an ACC Championship berth with a 36-34 road win at Wake Forest and host Georgia Tech this week. SP+ - 31. FPI - 29. FEI - 47.