Advanced outlook: Big plays guide run game, offense; Clemson-WF projections

Etienne has seven runs of 20-plus yards through five games, which is already one short of his total last season.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Thu Oct 04 13:08:15 GMT-04:00 2018

The Clemson offense hits the road to Wake Forest this Saturday (3:30, ESPN) ahead of most any metric from last season.

While the passing game has drawn the attention under Trevor Lawrence’s leadership, the improvement in the ground game around that spark has Clemson just outside the top-15 nationally in yards per game (497.6).

Led by a standout sophomore campaign by Travis Etienne, Clemson is averaging nearly 50 more rushing yards a game this season (242.8) and is making the carries count - 10th nationally in yards per rush attempt (6.1; ranked 42nd last season, 4.7).

With Etienne accounting for over half of them (7), Clemson ranks 10th nationally in 20-yard runs (13). The Tigers are hitting almost three more chunk-run plays a game this season (10+ yards; 8.2) to go with an increase of 20-yard-plus pass completions (3.6; 2.8 last year; already halfway to last season’s total of 20-yard-plus TD passes with 5).

A 7.03 yards per play average overall ranks 13th in the nation and is well ahead of a Clemson school-record pace (6.5, 2006).

They face a Wake Forest defense this week that ranks 97th in rush defense efficiency (SBN) - struggling against explosive runs (80th) and containing attempts around the line of scrimmage (82nd in stuff rate).

And therefore by the numbers, the projections don’t think this game will be close Saturday.

The Football Outsiders metrics see Clemson covering the now 19-point spread, with the FEI taking the Tigers 39-12 (95.2 percent win projection) and the S&P+ picking Clemson 42-18 (92). TeamRankings sees a slightly closer game (39-22; 90.9 projection) and another ESPN-used metric has the Deacs closing the gap to two scores (39-27).

Advanced metrics profile

Clemson

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 33. Defense – 3. Special teams – 101.

Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 12. Defense – 7. Special teams – 65.

Success rate (Per SBN): Offense – 13 (50.5). Defense – 10 (33.3).

Wake Forest

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 52. Defense – 91. Special teams – 34.

Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 64. Defense – 84. Special teams – 79.

Success rate (Per SBN): Offense – 50 (44.9). Defense – 56 (39.1).

Metrics outlook: Clemson-Wake Forest

FEI: Clemson 39-12

SBN: Clemson 42-18

TeamRankings: Clemson 39-22

numberFire: Clemson 39-27

Looking at the ACC picture and beyond, ESPN tabs the Tigers with the best odds to win its conference of any Power 5 team (64.6) and the third-best odds for a P5 to win out (29.9) - trailing Alabama (38.2) and Ohio State (35.8). That’s likely because ESPN projects a slightly tougher road ahead, with a No. 29 remaining strength of schedule to Alabama’s No. 38 and Ohio State’s No. 39.

TeamRankings gives Clemson by far the best odds to win its conference (52.3; Miami next at 25.3) and a 39.5 percent chance of going undefeated.

The current toughest-projected game ahead comes at Boston College on Nov. 10 (80.1, ESPN FPI; 78.1, TeamRankings).

ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives Clemson the third-best chance at making the Playoff currently (57), ahead of Georgia (52) and Notre Dame (46) and behind Ohio State (75) and Alabama (75). The Crimson Tide (51) and Buckeyes (45) are both given around a 50 percent chance at making the title game with Alabama favored to go back-to-back (32).