Metrics mixed over change in Clemson Playoff odds


by - Staff Writer -
It's still very much win and in the CFP for the Tigers moving forward. (USA TODAY Sports-Neil Redmond)
It's still very much win and in the CFP for the Tigers moving forward. (USA TODAY Sports-Neil Redmond)

However you rank Dabo Swinney's Tigers through five games, they are: 1) Undefeated still. 2) Well-positioned to make a fifth-straight College Football Playoff.

Have those odds dipped some in metrics after the 21-20 win at UNC? Yes.

After having firm top projections to make the CFP earlier this year, Clemson is now third behind Ohio State (71) and Alabama (68) with still solid 66 percent Playoff odds. With that shift, however, the Tigers' projection as a repeat national champion has dropped over 20 percent from preseason to now (37 to 16 percent according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor).

Not all metrics have Clemson needing to make up ground, FiveThirtyEight still gives the Tigers the best CFP appearance odds by far (73), ahead of Ohio State (50), Alabama (47) and Oklahoma (44). If the favorites among CFP contenders win this weekend, that shifts only slightly with it Clemson (73), Ohio State (53), Alabama (45), Oklahoma (43), Georgia (32), Auburn (27), LSU (21), Wisconsin (16) and Penn State (15), with the ACC's Tigers (18) and Big Ten Buckeyes (18) just ahead of Alabama (17) in national championship chances.

ESPN's Playoff eliminator has all of that group and also Florida, Iowa, Notre Dame, Oregon and Texas still in contention for a CFP bid.

With ESPN's Power Index, Clemson was actually given its third-highest game score of the season for the UNC win (79), behind Texas A&M (94) and Syracuse (88). It gives Swinney's group a 93.9 percent or better win chance in the next six games, with the South Carolina finale being the toughest game (relatively) to close out the regular-season slate (83.9).

Print   
Send Feedback to Brandon Rink: Email | Comment
Three former Tigers selected in XFL draft
Three former Tigers selected in XFL draft
WATCH: Dabo Swinney after Wednesday's practice
WATCH: Dabo Swinney after Wednesday's practice
Advanced outlook: Clemson-Louisville projections
Advanced outlook: Clemson-Louisville projections
WATCH: Clemson-Louisville Preview
WATCH: Clemson-Louisville Preview
Sign Up for E-Mail News Alerts
Features
Breaking
Daily Digest