CFB analyst makes double-digit Clemson-Alabama pick

Kelly Bryant will look to continue a strong run down the stretch and proves some national pundits right in New Orleans.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Sun Dec 31 15:44:05 GMT-04:00 2017

Both sides of the Clemson-Alabama Playoff rematch can claim some sort of underdog status.

The Tigers have the No. 1 ranking and beat the Crimson Tide the last time the two met with CFP stakes.

By Vegas odds, No. 4 Alabama is favored by three points to exact some revenge.

The national respect Clemson has gained in recent years is unmistakable in this matchup, however.

CBS Sports college football analyst Barrett Sallee was already down for Clemson covering the spread, but he took that a bit further Sunday in his final pick.

“The Tigers will put the Tide in third and medium (or worse) consistently,” Sallee writes, “which has been their biggest Achilles heel in 2017. They've converted 41.5 percent of their third down opportunities this year (No. 50 nationally), and 31.43 against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 (No. 64). Give me the Tigers to not only cover, but win by 10 or more points.”

Sallee isn’t alone among national pundits taking the Tigers. An recent SB Nation writeup tallied picks from a number of outlets and 72 percent of the media predictions went the Vegas underdog Clemson’s way. Of Sallee's CBS colleagues, four of the seven take Clemson.

Those picks run not only against the betting line, but also computer projections, which give the Crimson Tide a slight edge.

Former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman offered his thoughts to CBS Sports recently on why Alabama a popular Vegas pick and his go-to for Monday’s Sugar Bowl.

“There’s a much different dynamic here (than the previous two matchups),” Fuhrman said, “when these two teams have had over a month to prepare unlike the previous two engagements where they a week leading up to the contest. Alabama has to be foaming at the mouth. People asking if they are really deserving of getting into the playoff...Oh by the way, this is going to be a much healthier version of the Crimson Tide than we saw during the month of November.

“When I look at Clemson, I think this is where they miss Deshaun Watson’s ability to stretch the field vertically with the passing attack. Kelly Bryant is probably a better runner. He’s quicker and a little more physical between the tackles, but there’s a reason why Clemson is barely in the top half when it comes to yards per play on offense.

“I think ultimately Alabama gets enough stops, and with a low-scoring game, I’ll make a case for laying the three (points) with Nick Saban and company.”

Clemson is 47th in yards per play (5.96), while Alabama is eighth nationally (6.92). The Crimson Tide and Tigers rank 1-2 respectively in yards per play defense (4.04 and 4.29) with Clemson on top by a full yard on the nearest FBS team versus ranked opponents (3.4; Alabama, 4.66).