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Valley Legend [12639]
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Top TigerNet [30602]
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Why does Xi wear lipstick ? Is that a commie thing ?***
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May 6, 2025, 6:11 AM
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 8:40 AM
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This is what I've been trying to tell you guys for awhile now.
That's the tip of the iceberg. China's in a truly insane amount of trouble. It's literally mind-boggling. Their housing crisis isn't the same as our housing crisis at all - we have a shortage. They're as much as 100% overbuilt...and China's population is sinking like a stone. So we're not just talking a mortgage crisis. If they default at scale - and they've been defaulting all over the country the past year - it becomes a bank crisis on a scale we've never remotely seen here in the US, even during the Great Depression. Eighty per cent - repeat, 80% - of their wealth is tied up in that.
Speaking of population, between urbanization - where population growth plummets all on its own anyway - the Chinese also added that 1-child-only policy. They didn't do the math and by the time they realized the pickle they'd put themselves in it was far too late. And so they now have more people over the age of fifty than under, and that work force is graying at an awe-inspiring rate. Within just a few years they'll have more people retired than working...and of course, thanks to the housing crisis, those retirees will have no savings.
That's far beyond terminal. And that's even before we get to their water crisis. Something like 400 million people are about to be without water in their west and north - including their capital of Beijing. The Gobi Desert is claiming the entire top half of the country. That's what happens when you drain your aquifers, overbuild your agriculture, and poison more than 70% of your fresh water by dumping industrial sludge in it.
There's a bunch of other stuff too. But it's beyond bad. There is almost zero chance China exists in its current form even ten years from now.
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Ring of Honor [22554]
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When times are really tough,
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May 6, 2025, 8:45 AM
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There's pretty much one action to take. 'Look what the world has done to us!'
Taiwan and Japan won't be tourist destinations for me anytime soon...if ever.
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Offensive Star [334]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 8:50 AM
[ in reply to Re: Tough times in China ] |
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If I was in that neighborhood I would be very leery, push comes to shove they would not be the 1st to go to war over resources.
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 9:05 AM
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Yeah, but where do they go to get what they need?
If they want to push into India they've got to go over the Himalayas. If they want to go north into Russia they're into almost uninhabited territory - there's only six million Russians in the entire Far East and that number is plummeting; their population is getting old almost as fast as China's and the kids are headed West to Moscow and St. Petersburg. The reason is simple - it's cold up there and will never support a big population. And both Russia and India have nukes anyway.
Taiwan? Well, if they want to take Taiwan, they've got load their army onto boats and then cross the Taiwan Strait, 100 miles of open ocean...which has turned into one giant drone kill box; Taiwan is copying Ukraine's defense plan and spamming cheap drones, and they're doing it with a tech and manufacturing base far, far bigger than any Ukraine's ever had. Even if the Chinese hit on some really clever plan and somehow take the island, Taiwan's worthless without supply-chain inputs made across the world. And it would get them embargoed and blockaded, instantly. That hurts China a million times worse than Russia...Russia is one of the world's biggest suppliers of food and energy. China's by far the world's biggest importer. They import half their food and three-quarters of their energy. Within six weeks their lights would be out, within three months there would be widespread famine across China.
South of them is Vietnam. They've tried that before, several times, most recently in the late '70's long after we pulled out. It went even worse for them than it did for us. And Vietnam is not exactly swimming in natural resources either.
Japan? If they go after Japan, they'll get massacred. Japan's long-range navy is far more powerful than China's. China can spam the South China Sea with small vessels in the corvette and frigate classes and that's about it. Outside that box Japan has a truly massive edge.
There's really nowhere to go. China's at the absolute natural geographical limits of their empire as it is. Any change in the size of their country is going to be wholly negative.
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Top TigerNet [30181]
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I'm so turned on right now***
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May 6, 2025, 9:10 AM
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Paw Master [16640]
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Interesting insights. Thanks. I have wondered if China
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May 6, 2025, 9:56 AM
[ in reply to Re: Tough times in China ] |
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would swoop in and claim a portion of Eastern Russia if the war, economy and demographic challenges of Russia lead to instability. And perhaps they will, but it sounds like it’s not the “win” it might look like.
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: Interesting insights. Thanks. I have wondered if China
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May 6, 2025, 10:13 AM
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I actually did a lot of digging for one of my clients on that a few months back, which led me down some pretty deep rabbit holes.
They'll probably try to soft-colonize the place and the Russians may even let them do it since nobody in Russia lives on that side of the country anymore. It's basically like Northern Canada.
The only area that might conceivably help them at all is Primorsky Krai, the area right around Vladivostok. That area is still chilly but it's not in permafrost. Look on a map at the top of Northern China and you'll see this stretch of Russian territory that sort of wraps around the top of China and then reaches down the coast. The two nations have squabbled over that region since time immemorial and Russia last took it in the 1850's.
Vladivostok is kinda-sorta valuable to Russia because even though it's cold as he!! - it's got the same climate as Newfoundland, well above Maine - it's their only Far East port that doesn't freeze over in the winter. So it's where their Pacific Fleet - such as it is these days, it's in sorrowful shape - is anchored.
But Vladivostok only has 150,000 people, and it's dwindling. That gives you an idea how these former superpowers are already waning in a huge way.
China probably pushes in there at some point, most likely buys it off Russia with a combination of cash and tech assets. Technically it even breaks the first island chain that rings in China and has kept them in a naval box their entire modern history. But again...that region does not support a huge population, and it has almost no infrastructure. Even if the Chinese got it tomorrow - and they won't - it'd take a minimum of ten years to build it up to the point they could extract any real value from it...and they don't have ten years.
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Orange Elite [5246]
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Re: Tough times in China
May 6, 2025, 8:51 AM
[ in reply to Re: Tough times in China ] |
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Looks like they could use some immigration. BTW, what is the current US birthrate and how is it trending? 🤔
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: Tough times in China
May 6, 2025, 11:08 AM
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In the US? About 1.6 (each woman has 1.6 children) in the cities - 2.1 is replacement level.
It's about 1.9 in rural areas.
Trending down.
The good news is we have a good 40 years to figure out how to fix this, and see what works - and what doesn't. China, Russia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece - they're all four decades ahead of us and are already hitting growth walls because of it, and are now all losing population and are in the early stages of demographic collapse. Mathematically there is no way out for any of them beyond massive amounts of immigration...which their populations will absolutely not allow. France is in much better shape - they actually have young people, still have room to grow, and have geographical barriers that will protect them when the rest of Europe starts falling apart. And while it's been less than smooth their population is a lot more tolerant of immigration, especially from their former African colonies. So they probably have a future.
A lot of places don't. First-world - and even some developing nations - are about to start vanishing from the face of the Earth.
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Orange Elite [5246]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 1:16 PM
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Too funny. The future health of our country is reliant on immigration. Waiting for the MAGAts to chime in on this one. 😆 🤣 😂
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Gridiron Giant [15526]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 4:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Tough times in China ] |
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South Korea and Ukraine don’t look good either, at all. Canada isn’t very good either, well below the rates of the US.
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Top TigerNet [30181]
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their only shot of survival is the semiconductor industry
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May 6, 2025, 9:14 AM
[ in reply to Re: Tough times in China ] |
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they know it
we know it
errbody knows it
we're in an all out war, and I'd argue we have been for close to a decade and a half.
don't let up now. finish.
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National Champion [7692]
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Re: Tough times in China
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May 6, 2025, 8:51 AM
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Its also pretty telling that China has stopped reporting in hundreds of economic areas over the last few years, not that you could necessarily believe their reporting anyway. Must be pretty bad if they are no longer even trying to propagandize their numbers.
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Top TigerNet [30181]
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steady lads
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May 6, 2025, 9:11 AM
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let's drag these mother ####### down here in the mud and spot the MF ball
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: steady lads
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May 6, 2025, 9:22 AM
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There's actually several Chinas. The northern and western ones are totally effed, but I'd keep an eye on the Cantonese region - Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen, Guangdong. That's BYD, CATL, and Tencent, plus the Hong Kong finance system and Macao banks and entertainment industry. They have a very good chance of making it if they can shake off the CCP. They have water and young people. Little things.
What is it they say? Don't get mad, and don't waste your time getting even - get ahead. And an independent Cantonese region would be an entirely different animal than CCP-controlled China. They'd be a lot more like Singapore with about 100x the manufacturing capacity. Which is exactly why Warren Buffet didn't dump BYD even though he dumped nearly everything else Berkshire had in China.
If you're going to sit there and eat popcorn while you watch China burn, you might as well make money off it. Ghoulish? Yes. Justified? Maybe. Inevitable? Also yes, unless they discover the Fountain of Youth or viable cloning tech in the next five or ten years. Best of luck with that, Beijing.
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Ring of Honor [22554]
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Desperation and logical
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May 6, 2025, 11:37 AM
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Response seldom go hand in hand. I don't believe it's human nature to simply accept withering away. At some point, go big or go home becomes the order of the day, regardless its lack of orderliness.
FWIW, not discounting any of what you've just posited...but rational approach is scarce these days.
And as Disturbed penned some years back, the media desperately wants the Apocalypse on PPV, even if it is the final broadcast for humanity! 
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Paw Master [17171]
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Tariffs are working***
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May 6, 2025, 9:13 AM
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Ring of Honor [21656]
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Re: Tariffs are working***
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May 6, 2025, 9:39 AM
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This has absolutely nothing to do with tariffs. China did it all to their own stupid selves.
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Legend [6827]
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TRUMP HAS DEFEATED CHINA
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May 6, 2025, 1:44 PM
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Will be another great chapter in his legacy
LOL
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