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Replies: 24
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Redshirt [94]
TigerPulse: 88%
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Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 12:24 AM
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Clemson has the toughest remaining schedule Louisville, @ Pitt, @ VT, Citadel, South Carolina
Miami: FSU, Duke, @ GT, Wake, @ Syracuse
SMU: @ Duke, Pitt, BC, @ UVA, Cal
ESPN has Clemson 1st in ACC Standings with loss to #2 UGA
Miami is undefeated
SMU lost to undefeated and 11th ranked BYU
Maybe SMU and Miami will play in ACC champ game guaranteeing clemson spot in CFP - probably hosting a playoff game as 7-8 seed.
12-0 Miami
11-1 SMU
11-1 Clemson
All undefeated in conference play
Things could get messy
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Top TigerNet [31043]
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 12:41 AM
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it all depends on if the acc decides to quit protecting da U. They have rescued the ibis twice now.
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Gridiron Giant [15914]
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 1:31 AM
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No love for Pitt? They are undefeated too. They could take us out of The ACCCG and the CFP.
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TigerNet Immortal [174491]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Yep....one game at a time. This young man gets it.
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Oct 24, 2024, 7:24 AM
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grrowl
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110%er [3807]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Top TigerNet [30051]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Game Changer [1787]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 7:35 AM
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Went through this yesterday with a friend. My understanding is that since neither Clemson nor SMU play Miami or one another and end in a tie, the tie-breaker is the winning percentage of Clemson and SMU opponents. Is that ACC opponents or all? We could win out the regular season and be left out of the ACC Championship based on what Nevada does (on SMU's schedule for example). Is this correct?
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Top TigerNet [30051]
TigerPulse: 100%
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It is the winning pct of the conference opponents for all three teams.
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Oct 24, 2024, 8:09 AM
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Miami won't automatically be ranked ahead of SMU and Clemson just because they are 12-0.
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Dynasty Maker [3283]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Not just Clem and SMU, but Miami included . . .
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Oct 24, 2024, 9:27 AM
[ in reply to Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC ] |
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the winning percentage of Miami's opponents would be calculated for the tie-breaker as well. It's possible any three of those teams could be on the bottom rung of that calculation and get left out.
As for whether the winning percentage includes only ACC opponents or all opponents, the official rule doesn't specify that it's their conference winning percentage, but the implication seems heavy. Therefore, I think there's some confusion amongst fans as to what the rule really is. I think it's conference winning percentage, but I think that's a heavy, contextual implication, and I acknowledge that it isn't explicitly stated that way.
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National Champion [7790]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 7:37 AM
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I'd say there's almost no chance all three end the season undefeated.
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Dynasty Maker [3283]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Really?
Oct 24, 2024, 9:34 AM
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Miami and SMU are probably going to be heavy favorites in every one of their remaining conference games. For instance, ESPN's circle graph has neither team with less than a 72.5% chance to win in any of their remaining conference games - and in some cases it's substantially or much higher.
Clemson's isn't as high, but even our games against Pitt, VT, and Louisville peg us as a 67/68% chance of winning.
I don't think all three teams finishing 8-0 is a near-certainty, but the chances are pretty solid at this juncture.
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Rival Killer [2859]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
Oct 24, 2024, 4:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC ] |
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I agree.
SMU and Miami both have 5 remaining ACC games. I'd think < 25% chance that either of them finishes those 5-0.
Clemson just has 3 remaining ACC games so I think we have a much better chance - around 50/50.
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Top TigerNet [30051]
TigerPulse: 100%
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As long as we are talking messy,...
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Oct 24, 2024, 8:05 AM
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...consider this scenario.
Disclaimer - I am not predicting it to happen. I don't want it to happen. (It has Clemson losing to the coots. I'm certainly not pulling for that.) I'm just posting it as a purely hypothetical that would create the "messiest possible situation."
Final record and ranking by the committee before the conference championship games
Miami 12-0, ranked 4th.
SMU 11-1, ranked 10th.
Clemson 10-2, ranked 15th.
By using the ACC tiebreaker in this situation they would be ranked by the ACC according to the overall conference record of all their ACC opponents. That would be
1. Clemson
2. SMU
3. Miami
Clemson wins in Charlotte.
So Miami would be 12-0, ranked 4th, and not go to the conference championship.
Results -
1. ACC would get two teams in playoffs.
2. Conference champion would be "tainted" in the eyes of the public.
3. SEC would be ticked off because they would lose an at large bid.
4. 11-2 Clemson would get a bye in the playoffs. (In my hypothetical they would be seeded #3).
5. Miami would be seeded #5.
6. Miami would host the G5 team that got in and is seeded 12th.
7. In the next round, Miami would play the #4 seed team which would be the Big 12 champ.
8. Clemson would play the #6 seeded team, which in my purely hypothetical would be Georgia.
Once again, I'm not predicting it will happen. I don't want it to happen. But, in keeping with the topic of this thread, it is "messy."
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CU Medallion [19922]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: As long as we are talking messy,...
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Oct 24, 2024, 9:58 AM
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Anything cans and does happen. Just win.
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Varsity [115]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
Oct 24, 2024, 9:29 AM
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People often times worry about these "everyone is 8-0" scenarios but they are very rare. I think it is more likely that all 3 finish 7-1 in ACC play than 8-0... in which we would have the same issues but the tie breakers may be easier if there are some common opponents.
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CU Medallion [18901]
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Not a chance. Everyone forgets about what they forget about every year
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Oct 24, 2024, 9:30 AM
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November.
EDIT: obviously there is a chance, but highly unlikely.
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Valley Legend [13021]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Re: Not a chance. Everyone forgets about what they forget about every year
Oct 24, 2024, 10:07 AM
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November.
EDIT: obviously there is a chance, but highly unlikely.
This person ^^^^^ understood the assignment!
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Tiger Spirit [10020]
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Joined: 2003
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Not likely!!***
Oct 24, 2024, 9:46 AM
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CU Medallion [19922]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 9:56 AM
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I agree. Our road is muddied. We have to beat Pitt. No one is talking about them. They should be. Narsnoozi is a pretty decent coach. Just win. That’s it. We’re in.
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Clemson Sports Icon [53321]
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 10:08 AM
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Miami will lose to FSU Saturday, it’s going to happen, they haven’t faced a tough defensive line yet.
It’ll be close!
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Dynasty Maker [3283]
TigerPulse: 94%
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I hope you're right . . .
Oct 24, 2024, 10:20 AM
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. . . but I have a hard time believing that FSU can score enough to get it done even if their D rises to the occasion.
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National Champion [8071]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
Oct 24, 2024, 12:37 PM
[ in reply to Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC ] |
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Miami will lose to FSU Saturday, it’s going to happen, they haven’t faced a tough defensive line yet.
It’ll be close!
If the FSU defense hasn't checked out; I think you are 100% correct in terms of how I think Miami will struggle.
For everything FSU isn't on offense; their defense is pretty good. They just get worn down with the lack of rest due to a poor offense and having to face so many snaps against them.
FSU needs to "do enough" on offense; and I think you could very well be right. I don't think Miami is "BACK" like they proclaim yearly.
I think they are an imposter waiting to be unmasked!
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Orange Phenom [14616]
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If by "good" chance you mean ~5% then sure
Oct 24, 2024, 12:07 PM
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Per ESPN's matchup predictor (which i assume uses the FPI ratings) these are the odds for each team to win out:
Miami: 47.7%
Clemson: 32% (ACC) 22.6% (overall)
SMU: 31%
We only have 3 conference games left, but they are easily the 3 most difficult games on our league schedule and we are around ~70% to win each of them. We're also around 70% to beat USCjr. Miami and SMU only have conference games remaining.
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All-Pro [729]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: If by "good" chance you mean ~5% then sure
Oct 24, 2024, 12:30 PM
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There's actually a 50% chance because it'll either happen or it won't
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Ring of Honor [21676]
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Re: Good chance Clemson, Miami and SMU finish Undefeated in ACC
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Oct 24, 2024, 12:44 PM
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Somebody always stumbles. Miami's gotten incredibly close twice. It could well be us...our defense is, uhm, suspect, and all it takes is for the O to have a bad day and a few turnovers, and that's that.
Also, the closer teams get to the end, the more the pressure seems to build on them, and you always tend to see the programs that haven't been there before (or in a long while, anyhow, which certainly applies to Miami) start staggering under it.
Be glad we have Dabo in that regard. Clemson, at least, has assuredly been there and likely won't buckle under the pressure because the program has lived at those altitudes in recent years...and Dabo's as cool under pressure as coaches in football get. The others...well, if they make it, more power to them, but 1-year-wonders rarely do.
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