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CU Medallion [55787]
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For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 11:09 AM
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do you think the US manages the wars/proxy wars on three fronts?
As Fiona Hill said at the beginning of the Ukraine invasion, we are in WWIII. Now we are beginning to see how it will shape up globally - Ukraine, Middle East, South China Sea.
One argument, the one Biden will make to the nation, is to provide support for our allies. Almost an open checkbook as well as direct military support. This will serve as a deterrent and protect US interests.
Another argument is to not fund the wars. If Ukraine knows the US will cut off the aid, it will be forced to do what it will eventually have to do anyhow, which is sue for peace and make concessions to Russia. Not ideal, but better than losing an entire generation of your people.
If not funded and defended, Israel will have to think differently about destroying Gaza, which will only strengthen Hamas and its allies anyhow.
And as for Taiwan, it becomes an economic as well as nationalist concern as to how far we go to defend it.
Meantime, our enemies see an feeble, elderly President and a House of Representatives that can't even elect a Speaker so Congress can do the work of government. They also see a country tired of war after losing two since 2001. In other words, they smell blood and are pouncing.
What to do?
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All-In [26514]
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The US shouldn't ... we're not the world's police.
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Oct 19, 2023, 11:27 AM
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What is the purpose of the U.N. again ? Besides cashing big fat checks from the U.S. ?
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All-TigerNet [13360]
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Its almost like our govt wants to be in the middle of every
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Oct 19, 2023, 11:31 AM
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Conflict.
The question is why?
Money is the answer. Where and how is what needs to be uncovered for the American people.
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Orange Blooded [4018]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 11:36 AM
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Yeah, lots a weighty decisions
Fund and supply 2 foreign militaries’ war efforts?
Replenish our own military supplies to deter direct conflict?
Cut entitlement spending to pay for it?
Or print more money to pay for it (and send ourselves spiraling into hyper inflation)?
My money is on weak short sighted leadership that chooses to neglect our own defense spending and that prints money to preserve value sucking entitlements at the cost of hyper inflation and long term economic weakness. Glass half empty !
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 12:08 PM
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Supporting Ukraine against Russia is a no-brainer. At one point the Soviet Union had more than three times the number of tanks the NATO nations combined had in Europe...and NATO's biggest member was across the Atlantic Ocean. Putin has openly stated he's trying to rebuild that empire. And history tells us imperial ambitions are best stopped early, and once they get rolling and can get their whole country on a war footing while looting their occupied territories to the walls to keep the money pouring in, they get very, very hard to stop. See the Soviet Union. See the Nazis before that...and a whole mess of empires dating all the way back to Alexander.
Supporting Ukraine, and using them to bleed the Russians dry with what largely amounts to our garage-sale items and sort of a NATO GoFundMe campaign is an easy call. Unless we want to be facing down a hostile superpower that's bigger and more powerful than we are yet again.
I'm less crazy about supporting Israel, though I have little sympathy for the Palestinians, because the Israelis are big boys and can take care of themselves. IMHO the US would be better-served standing well away from that mess...and letting Israel do what Israel has to do to sort it out. But while Jews are certainly not the Master Puppeteers of the World the way some conspiracy theorists suggest, the Jewish community inarguably represents an extremely wealthy and powerful lobby here in the US and few politicians can stay in office without that lobby's support. Which is why there are two US carriers now parked in the Med.
The Far East is a different problem. Right now we can't let go of Taiwan or the loss of its semiconductors would absolutely wreck our economy. But we're reshoring those industries at a rate apparently higher than we were building factories in World War II...so Taiwan becomes less and less important to us with each passing year. And also, if the Chinese try to take it they'll just wind up blockaded, and they choke to death pretty much instantly. It's kind of hard to be both an imperial power and a trade power, and the Chinese rely so much on trade they need the world far more than the world needs them. (They import 75% of their oil, for instance, and the vast majority of it comes from the Middle East.) And China's got its own problems anyhow. Their economy is in dire, dire trouble...and it's supposedly just the start, if the geopolitical guys are right.
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All-In [47750]
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While I rarely agree with you this is well written.
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Oct 19, 2023, 12:10 PM
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I think you're spot on.
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All-TigerNet [11207]
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This is sound foreign policy and is exactly what the
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Oct 19, 2023, 12:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how ] |
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US will do going forward. It’s the reality between the extremes of those who want to pull back everything and isolate and those who wanna go in full blast and start shootin’.
I don’t think our enemies see a feeble administration at all. China and Russia see America doing what America is supposed to do…much to their chagrin. Your ME players see an administration that won’t be manipulated…again, much to their chagrin. And MBS hates our guts now that his toy boy isn’t in office.
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All-In [27151]
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APM this is by no means directed at you personally,
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Oct 19, 2023, 5:45 PM
[ in reply to Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how ] |
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but I don't see how after Russia already did the same thing back in 2014, one can think carving off more of Ukraine will do anything more than allow Russia to regroup, rebuild, and come back again. Russia can't allow Ukraine to exist. Not because it is a military threat, even in NATO, but because Ukraine's freedom and prosperity outside Russia control is a direct and existential threat to the Putinesque regime. We have to help Urkaine finish what Russia started. Because it is the only moral option, and because Russia will continue to use world destablization as a weapon against the U.S. and the Western world, and hundreds of thousands, if not millions, will die as a result. That is both the moral and objective interest we have.
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110%er [7155]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
Oct 20, 2023, 10:03 AM
[ in reply to Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how ] |
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In full agreement with you re: Israel / Hamas and Taiwan / PRC.
Ukraine? They will never recapture any significant part of what is currently lost unless NATO troops intervene with the full slate of modern NATO weaponry (not the old stuff that we are dumping off on them). As with you, I follow Peter Zeihan’s clips. He has cited Ukraine’s terrible birth rate problem and the mass exodus of their fighting age men. Then, there is also the high rate of attritional death of Ukrainian troops during the protracted (and now, with the rainy season in its early stage to restrict off-road movement) failed counteroffensive. (Attacking forces always suffer a higher proportion of casualties than the defenders until the break through is achieved; the long awaited breakthrough didn’t … and won’t happen.
Ukraine will bleed out long before the Russians. Ukraine is close to being out of blood already.
The correct plan is:
Step #1. Negotiate a peace which does not cede any more territory than had been lost. This saves Ukraine from losing even more of their young men -&- allows Putin to save face.
Step #2. Ukraine establishes formidable defenses across its new border with Russia -and- Belorus (Belorus can’t be trusted). Mobile backup defense units to be based at appropriate distances behind the border and at appropriate distances from each other mobile back up defense units. THIS is where where NATO and … gulp … the USA needs to focus financial and materiel support to Ukraine.
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Oculus Spirit [97746]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 12:59 PM
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Orange Blooded [2021]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 1:09 PM
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The honest answer is the Deep State are trying as hard as possible to start WWIII to usher in the New World Order with a one world digital currency, one world military and one world religion. They tried and failed in Ukraine so now they will try in Israel and SE Asia. They want to destroy America and the West.
The Governments of America, Israel, Canada, Great British, Australia, France, Germany, China, Ukraine, New Zealand....are all run by the DS.
There was a 16 yr plan to destroy America. 8 yrs of Obama followed by 8 yrs of Clinton. They never thought she would lose. War will allow them to do monetary reset as current central banks (Rothschild) worldwide collapse.
It will get ugly and close but there will be no WWIII
Constant wars and fighting ALL over the world since NATO and UN came in to existance, but somehow the Antarctic treaty has never waivered. Strange huh?
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All-TigerNet [11207]
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Do you even read what you write?***
Oct 19, 2023, 1:37 PM
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Orange Blooded [2021]
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Re: Do you even read what you write?***
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Oct 19, 2023, 1:55 PM
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If you would actually open your brain you can see it ALL fits exactly
but, but, but the "Tell-a-vision" told me on their "programs" that you are a conspiracy nut and I believe ALL those coincidences and the Government has never lied to me.
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All-TigerNet [11207]
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Eye roll. Go find another Bigfoot.***
Oct 19, 2023, 2:03 PM
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All-In [25011]
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I'm starting to think that China won't actually do anything
Oct 19, 2023, 2:05 PM
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against Taiwan. They have clearly been trying to position themselves as world mediator recently and being the "more stable" alternative to the US. At least that's how they are trying to spin it to the rest of the world and turn world opinion to favor them.
Invading or blockading Taiwan of any type would immediately lose that mediator role they are aiming for and lose popular opinion worldwide.
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All-In [42197]
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They will, but not until they think they're ready
Oct 19, 2023, 2:08 PM
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At the moment, they know they will lose.
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Orange Blooded [2021]
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All-In [31520]
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Re: I'm starting to think that China won't actually do anything
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Oct 19, 2023, 3:43 PM
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All-In [42197]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 2:07 PM
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-I'm not sure I'm ready to call this WW III yet. But it certainly has potential if some things turn south.
-I'm certainly not a big World Police fan, but we also have to consider that Russia and China are hungry to make big moves (especially if you saw their joint announcement yesterday). They're hoping for a weak, unresponsive U.S. Now's the time to keep them at bay however we can.
-I don't think Russia lets them sue for peace; Putin wants the whole thing, and if he gets it, he'll move on to another former Soviet state.
-We have to defend Israel at all costs. Failure to do so will result in a second Holocaust. If that means backing them while they level Gaza, so be it. I think they and we need to send a pretty clear message that there will be a presence of democracy and freedom in the Middle East.
-China doesn't want to strike Taiwan--yet. They know they still would lose to us in a naval/air battle at the moment and working harder to get to a better spot. We are two gens ahead of them in tech (that's quoting our admiral over the Pacific fleet), but we've also had some tech missteps. As of now, we'd beat them but would take losses. China's target year is 2027; they said that publicly, so I'd bank on 2025 instead.
-Of course, to your last point, that's why it's crucial that a young Republican like Haley or the like take over the White House. Biden is too weak and Trump is too evil/corrupt; he'll sell out our allies to the bad guys.
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All-TigerNet [11961]
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Irony
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Oct 19, 2023, 10:53 PM
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Trump, not Biden is corrupt.
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All-In [42197]
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Re: Irony
Oct 20, 2023, 12:47 AM
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It’s not surprising that’s the only thing you interpreted (and falsely) out of my post. You only seek stupid arguments, not actual discussion.
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 20, 2023, 6:47 AM
[ in reply to Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how ] |
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I'm actually not certain China will go on Taiwan. They might because who knows what the control-freak absolute megalomaniac dictator of an aggressor nation will do, but rationally it's a horrific idea. They're extremely vulnerable to blockades and sanctions in a way Russia is not...Russia lacks manufacturing and tech, but the Russkies are also massive producers of oil and food and so they can keep the lights on and their people fed even if their economy tanks in many other areas.
This is apparently not remotely true of China. Peter Zeihan, that geopolitical guru whose podcasts and videos many of us here are getting addicted to, pointed out that China imports 75% of its energy, 50% of its food...and more than 50% of the inputs needed to make food - meaning: fertilizers, farm equipment, etc. This is a particular problem for them because their soil is some of the worst in the world for growing any kind of major crop except rice and so they are particularly vulnerable to a fertilizer shortage.
And while China can get a bit of oil, food, and fertilizers from Russia via rail, it's massively more expensive to send stuff overland by rail than it is to ship it by sea...and with the limited rail infrastructure that exists between the two nations, they're not going to be able to ship much overland anyway. So while the Chinese are pumping out small ships in the frigate and corvette classes and obviously intend to spam the South China Sea with them in the event of hostilities, those ships have less than 1,000-mile ranges and absolutely no "blue water" ability...outside the South China Sea they're useless. We control the open waterways and are a hundred years ahead of them there.
Which means it'd be child's play for us to blockade them. Zeihan also pointed out it'd take all of two US destroyers parked in the Persian Gulf to cut off 75% of their oil supply...and out go their lights, in probably six weeks or less.
Then there's the other problem: it's really, really hard to trade with people you're shooting at anyway, and China's entire economy is geared towards exports. So what good is Taiwan to them if they can't sell anything they get from it? And it'd be 20 years, minimum, before we even considered letting China back into the international market that we built and control if they're dumb enough to start a war with us.
So...who knows what Xi will do, but it'd be the worst idea he's ever had. And he's had some really, really bad ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8LdgsI9vyk
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110%er [7155]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
Oct 20, 2023, 10:17 AM
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P.R.China has a marked military inferiority to us (and FWIW) to Russia with respect to submarine numbers and submarine technology. (This info was provided to me by a young dentist who is a naval reservist.)
P.R.China does not have nuclear powered subs; their diesel powered subs are the metaphorical equivalent of giant parade circus clowns. They are therefore exceedingly easy to find. And destroy.
Our nuclear subs are not so easy to find. In the event of a tactical weapons war against P.R.China due to them invading Taiwan, they know that they are deficient as far as protecting their carriers from our submarines. Our subs could also clog P.R.C’s ports by sinking merchant ships in their harbors.
Regardless of what P.R.C. knows that WE know, they will continue to play the ‘bluff’ game. We have to be smart enough about how to play the counter-bluff correctly. I sure hope that our political leadership has been thinking deeply about how we will play the ‘bluff’ game. Blustery speeches for the consumption of America’s voters is not what I mean.
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All-TigerNet [10134]
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Re: For those in here who can have an actual discussion, how
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Oct 19, 2023, 5:42 PM
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You get what you vote for.
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All-TigerNet [10900]
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Listen to Ron Paul***
Oct 19, 2023, 9:28 PM
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