|
Replies: 27
| visibility 301
|
110%er [9109]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5296
Joined: 9/3/03
|
Civil War movie and likelihood
Mar 15, 2024, 9:39 AM
|
|
I've heard many people say that they think there will be another civil war. There's a movie coming out soon that's about that, but never discloses the cause of the war, other than a president trying to claim a 3rd term (sounds kinda familiar, though...).
I don't see any likelihood of a real civil war. Civil unrest, yes. War, no. The country isn't as cleanly divided as it was back in the 1800s. The pockets of blue and red are all over. There is no Mason/Dixon line, or Trump/Obama line. You have blue counties in red states, and red counties in blue states.
But more importantly, the US military is far too large and complex for any civilian uprising to stand any reasonable chance. Technology and manpower would far outmatch anything that civilians could muster. Thoughts of military units rebelling and "joining sides" may happen a little, but not enough where it would make a difference. If nothing else, I think most military who were so inclined would simply refuse to fly/fight rather than directly rebel.
But unrest - definitely. Though that's nothing new. That's one of the prices of living in a country with freedom to dissent, free speech, and the right to bear arms. And a little unrest now and then can be a healthy thing.
|
|
|
|
 |
110%er [7210]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9446
Joined: 12/18/13
|
|
|
|
|
|
Heisman Winner [137981]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 63821
Joined: 10/22/00
|
I wish I could remember who the poster was, but we had a long thread some
Mar 15, 2024, 10:16 AM
|
|
years ago on the topic, and this (from what I remember, pretty sharp) poster INSISTED that the armed citizenry in the US could not only hold their own against the US military, but likely defeat them. It was wild. I think his argument was predicated on somebody on the military side not being willing to press the button against US citizens. I'm sure there would be some of those, but all it takes is one who is.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [97746]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 64879
Joined: 7/13/02
|
Yeah, the movie has lines drawn that would never exist
Mar 15, 2024, 9:49 AM
|
|
Historically, if we did have a civil war today the objective would not be succession and an independent country or state like the Civil War. The most likely scenario would be a war for control of the government. A revolution, and not a civil war.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9035]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9795
Joined: 4/27/13
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
1
Mar 15, 2024, 9:53 AM
|
|
not happening
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10900]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 15072
Joined: 8/6/10
|
I think it'll be more like 1990s USSR.***
Mar 15, 2024, 10:05 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10963]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7973
Joined: 10/18/16
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
1
Mar 15, 2024, 1:38 PM
|
|
I've heard many people say that they think there will be another civil war. There's a movie coming out soon that's about that, but never discloses the cause of the war, other than a president trying to claim a 3rd term (sounds kinda familiar, though...).
I don't see any likelihood of a real civil war. Civil unrest, yes. War, no. The country isn't as cleanly divided as it was back in the 1800s. The pockets of blue and red are all over. There is no Mason/Dixon line, or Trump/Obama line. You have blue counties in red states, and red counties in blue states.
But more importantly, the US military is far too large and complex for any civilian uprising to stand any reasonable chance. Technology and manpower would far outmatch anything that civilians could muster. Thoughts of military units rebelling and "joining sides" may happen a little, but not enough where it would make a difference. If nothing else, I think most military who were so inclined would simply refuse to fly/fight rather than directly rebel.
But unrest - definitely. Though that's nothing new. That's one of the prices of living in a country with freedom to dissent, free speech, and the right to bear arms. And a little unrest now and then can be a healthy thing.
And that's what they said when the farmers and working class took on the mighty British Military in something called a Revolution.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31520]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 10212
Joined: 1/28/15
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
Mar 15, 2024, 1:44 PM
|
|
The founding fathers were quite literally the elite of the elite. The most educated, the most travelled, and the wealthiest. They weren’t the “working class” anything.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4791]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 4832
Joined: 1/8/19
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
3
Mar 15, 2024, 1:50 PM
|
|
You act like the tens of thousands of militia members/soldiers who fought and died for freedom were anything other than the working class, or what passed for it at the time. Go read a book.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10963]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7973
Joined: 10/18/16
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
Mar 15, 2024, 2:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: Civil War movie and likelihood ] |
|
And the elite weren't militia and volunteers fighting anyone. How many of the elite were at Lexington and Concord, fought at Bunker Hill, spent the winter at Valley Forge, traveled the swamps of SC, fought at Cowpens and came from the foothills and mountains to fight at Kings Mountain?
Since I don't know anything about that time period 😉, I'll just have go with my family history. My 4th Great Grandfather fought and scouted throughout SC and was at Cowpens. He was a farmer from Union Distric. Although he was not of the "elite" class, he was elite in his belief of a free nation.
Message was edited by: saddis56®
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31520]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 10212
Joined: 1/28/15
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
Mar 15, 2024, 2:25 PM
|
|
So you don’t disagree with me about the founders, you’re saying something different that the people in the fields were farmers and patriots. I agree completely. My family fought and died in the Revolution too, probably most notably at Lenud’s Ferry by Banastre Tarleton’s dragoons.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9109]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5296
Joined: 9/3/03
|
Yeah, but some slight differences
Mar 15, 2024, 1:45 PM
[ in reply to Re: Civil War movie and likelihood ] |
|
High powered weapons, armored vehicles, drones, aircraft, helicopters, electronics jamming, eavesdropping, satellites - little things like that would do the farmers in.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [5694]
TigerPulse: 92%
Posts: 12169
Joined: 9/28/08
|
It is probably not a good
1
Mar 15, 2024, 1:50 PM
|
|
assumption the entire military will just happily take orders, especially if it means confronting/killing people they agree with.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26514]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20654
Joined: 9/2/02
|
Wasnt Robert E Lee a US soldier in 1860 ?***
Mar 15, 2024, 1:54 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10963]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7973
Joined: 10/18/16
|
Re: Yeah, but some slight differences
Mar 15, 2024, 2:23 PM
[ in reply to Yeah, but some slight differences ] |
|
I'm not advocating anything. History says different and don't underestimate anyone. All that sophistication defeated the Afghanistan fighters. Oh wait, no, my bad.
I'm sure Afghanistan has some military equipment for sale. If you don't believe, ask Biden, he can tell you. He left it there and gave them 13 lives in the process.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [27151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 15706
Joined: 1/26/22
|
The people talking civil war are a bunch of blowhard cowards, just like Trump.
1
Mar 15, 2024, 1:58 PM
|
|
Until they're ready to drag their neighbor into the street and put a bullet in their head, they're just calling for a dickmeasuring contest with a 2" schlong in their pants. They never have any intention in flopping it out, they just want to make you scared they will.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [24812]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42563
Joined: 7/31/10
|
Funny YOU brought that up...***
Mar 16, 2024, 9:20 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20542]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11688
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: Civil War movie and likelihood
1
Mar 15, 2024, 2:14 PM
|
|
The window for a potential civil war is closing, IMHO.
The MAGA's are basically a blue-collar worker movement that increasingly draws its numbers from people without college degrees. They're mad for one simple reason - the (correct) perception that their lot is getting worse while the lot of the "elites" continues to get better.
They are not wrong. Name a single blue-collar job that's gotten more lucrative over the last several decades. Factory work? Nope. Manufacturing had all but dried up in the US, outsourced to countries with cheaper labor. Agriculture? You're kidding, right? Farmers have been taking it in the teeth every which way, from the banks to the government to corporate farming. Mining? Lordy. If it comes out of the ground, it's likely happening somewhere else. Even mainstays like trucking have gotten steadily less lucrative and more exploitative. Basically we'd hollowed out our economy to the point we basically had crap service jobs at the bottom and tech and bureaucratic jobs at the top, and not much in between.
Populists prey on anger, and there's a ton of that lying around. The problem the populists are about to have is that manufacturing is flooding back to North America at a truly astounding rate...bringing with it far better-paying blue-collar jobs than have largely existed the last two decades. And that's going to have a steady corrosive effect on populism. People making money aren't much interested in burning the house they live in down.
For the moment, though, there still are some flashing yellow warning lights on the board. Hopefully we get through this period without screwing things up too badly.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3720]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 6090
Joined: 10/20/00
|
plumbing
Mar 15, 2024, 3:59 PM
|
|
Those jobs get mostly whatever they want
A/C workers here in Florida too
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [13156]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14149
Joined: 11/2/15
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [13156]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14149
Joined: 11/2/15
|
Why can't a state leave the union without war?***
2
Mar 15, 2024, 2:46 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3520]
TigerPulse: 94%
Posts: 4253
Joined: 12/5/06
|
Re: Why can't a state leave the union without war?***
2
Mar 15, 2024, 3:52 PM
|
|
Because it’s a silly notion that only non-serious people talk about…plus, there is no constitutional right to leave the union…even the great liberal justice Antonin Scalia agreed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3600]
TigerPulse: 94%
Posts: 750
Joined: 9/18/20
|
Re: Why can't a state leave the union without war?***
2
Mar 15, 2024, 11:07 PM
|
|
accidental td, I disagree with you but never td on a political topic unless someone is literally making a threat. I apologize.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10900]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 15072
Joined: 8/6/10
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9035]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9795
Joined: 4/27/13
|
Re: Because it's an empire, not a union.
Mar 15, 2024, 4:05 PM
|
|
fundamentally changed
the commies believe THEY will rebuild it as they desire
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3520]
TigerPulse: 94%
Posts: 4253
Joined: 12/5/06
|
Re: Because it's an empire, not a union.
Mar 15, 2024, 4:22 PM
|
|
Not if the MAGAt’s get to it first…totalitarianism or authoritarian theocracy…which will it be?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [12253]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5398
Joined: 9/12/04
|
I spent some time in Colombia and Bosnia/Croatia and have a little experience
2
Mar 15, 2024, 8:47 PM
|
|
with an internal civil conflict. In Colombia it was more of an insurrection led by the FARC (as opposed to what many on the left call an "insurrection") than a full blown civil war. The time I spent in Bosnia and parts of Croatia as part of IFOR was most definitely in the aftermath of a full blown civil war....
Things can start as an insurrection and turn into a full blown civil war but either way - none of us should ever want a civil war and do everything in our power to avoid it. As much as I disagree with some people in this country, I would never wish the horror and destruction upon my countrymen that comes with a civil war. Additionally, there is never a guarantee that the outcome of a civil war will produce a better result than what exists before the shooting starts. In many cases, the result of a civil war ends up being even worse with a more dysfunctional society/government with the added misery of a torn to shid country that may never be fully functional again.
I've often thought that if we went down this civil war path it would largely be an affair kind of like what I saw in Bosnia where literal neighbors living beside one another could end up pointing guns at one another.
The American Civil War was an affair where the ideological split also happened to largely mirror State boundaries. I just don't see that being the total case today. The geography of sides in a modern US civil war would be a real mess (at least initially) in a lot of places. For instance, Charlotte would be ideologically opposed to all the counties surrounding it as would Asheville and Raleigh/Durham. There would be a lot of internal fighting in NC as there would be in many States. In the suburbs where there is a mix of left and right folks living beside one another in the same neighborhood there could be some real bloodletting like I saw in Bosnia. In Bosnia, I saw neighborhoods where Muslims and Christians had lived peacefully beside one another for decades, some even in the same darn building, only to end up slaughtering one another in the night. It was insanity....
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20542]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11688
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: I spent some time in Colombia and Bosnia/Croatia and have a little experience
Mar 16, 2024, 8:57 AM
|
|
100% agree.
Everybody - everybody - loses in a civil war. The houses you burn down are your own, and whatever survives is going to be immeasurably weaker - and usually far worse - than what came before.
We have to figure out how to break this zero-sum deadlock we're in. It benefits nobody and it could spiral. The big hope I have here is how incredibly fast industry is reshoring to the US and North America. If the US working class can get back on its feet again after years of neglect (and frankly, abuse) caused by the knock-on effects of globalization, a whole lot of internal problems start going away.
It is coming. I'm living in Ohio at the moment, and Intel is coming into Columbus...they've already invested $20 billion in a high-end chips plant that will soon rival what's coming out of TSMC in Taiwan and are planning on investing $100 billion - with a "b"! - more.
That kind of money - which translates into tens of thousands of high-paying manufacturing jobs at the top end of the value-added scale economists love to ramble about - changes everything.
https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2024/01/22/intel-ohio-one-semiconductor-plant-columbus
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 27
| visibility 301
|
|
|
50
