ESPN analyst says Clemson's Playoff chances might depend on game at Florida State

Clemson looks to get another win in Tallahassee and make a return to the Playoff. (Photo: Ken Ruinard / USATODAY)

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Mon Feb 19 07:00:03 GMT-04:00 2024

Greg McElroy thinks Clemson’s chances of making the College Football Playoff in 2024 depend on how the Tigers fare against Florida State.

Clemson made the College Football Playoff for six consecutive seasons from 2015-2020, appearing in the National Championship Game four times. Clemson won the National Championship twice during that span.

Clemson’s offense was abysmal during the 2021 season, and the Tigers lost three games, missing a playoff berth for the first time since 2015. In the Cheez-It Bowl of 2021 season, they beat Iowa State 20–13 to cap another 10-win campaign, but that number dipped to nine wins last season as the Tigers struggled with turnovers.

The former Alabama quarterback McElroy, now a college football analyst for ESPN, covered what he thinks are Clemson’s chances during an episode of his Always College Football show, and he started with the season-opener against Georgia in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31st. The Tigers last opened the season against Georgia in 2021 – in Charlotte – and lost 10-3.

“Now, the schedule is very difficult for the Clemson Tigers. It gets kicked off in a neutral site game against the Georgia Bulldogs. That’ll be in Atlanta. That’ll be a very difficult game,” McElroy said. “We know Georgia’s going to be a top-two, top-three team at worst heading into this upcoming season, so that game’s a toss-up. Lean Georgia, though, at least at the moment. So right now, you’re looking at a possibility for the second straight year where Dabo Swinney might start 0-1.”

Clemson then plays three consecutive home games, but only once in October, before a difficult stretch to close out the regular season.

“You’ve got Appalachian State. NC State comes to you. Very tricky game, but the fact that it’s in Death Valley, I feel a lot better about Clemson’s chances there,” McElroy said. “Stanford comes to you as well. You go to Florida State there on Oct. 5. That’ll be a very difficult game, but one that Clemson is not scared of. They’ll play at a high level in that one.

“And then things down the stretch get a little bit more manageable. They’re at Wake Forest. Virginia and Louisville come to them. Wake Forest on the road shouldn’t be too chaotic of an environment there in Winston-Salem, so they should handle their business when they go on the road there in that three-game stretch. They go to Virginia Tech, and that can be very tricky on Nov. 9. Be careful in that game. Be very, very careful. At Pitt – still not sold on Pitt necessarily turning the corner just yet. Citadel, and then South Carolina comes to Clemson this year. I think they’ll handle their business.”

McElroy said he doesn’t see the ACC as wide open and sees three teams that have a chance to rise to the top – Florida St., Miami, and Clemson. He then detailed what he thinks Clemson’s record will be, and he said it all depends on how the Tigers play in Tallahassee in early October.

“So I’m going a three-wide net there in the ACC,” he said. “Playoff probability for the Clemson Tigers at 33 percent. I think they’re looking at about a 10-2 season as well. I think 11-1 is very much possible. It really hinges on that Florida State game. They can get the Florida State game on the road, I think their playoff probability increases drastically. But if they can’t get that one, I think it drops significantly.”