Roy Martin: Florida State Game Preview

by Roy Martin - Correspondent - Fri Nov 11 14:28:00 GMT-04:00 2005

The last time these two teams met in Death Valley Clemson was coming off a 45-17 loss to Wake Forest and Florida State had just defeated Notre Dame 38-0. The Seminoles had national championship aspirations while Clemson was just trying to get through the humiliation of one of their worst defeats in the modern era.

Clemson shocked the football world by solidly drubbing their counterparts for four quarters.

This year’s storyline is much different. FSU was embarrassed at home last week by a team who entered with a losing record. Meanwhile, Clemson had their highest offensive output in terms of points in nearly two years as they cruised past Duke.

FSU was able to back-door a trip to Jacksonville when North Carolina outlasted Boston College. Although they have no shot at a national title, a BCS bowl is a very real possibility. Clemson, on the other hand, is fighting just to become bowl eligible with a victory in their final two games.

OFFENSE

The great thing about having played Duke is the offense gained a little confidence. The bad thing about playing Duke is they are light years behind Florida State. Duke is as comparable to Florida State as a Yugo is to a Mercedes. The comparisons stop with the basics – 11 guys wearing pads.

The Seminoles are 11th nationally in overall defense (290 yds/game), 20th in scoring (18.78 pts/game), 11th against the pass (171 yds/game), and 27th against the run (119 yds/game). Their 91 tackles for loss are five less than Nebraska and 30 sacks put them in the seventh spot in the rankings.

Senior nose guard Brodrick Bunkley leads the ACC in tackles for loss with 14. He is the only senior among the 10 front four players listed on the depth chart. With the loss of Kamerion Wimbley, Bunkley is now considered the leader of the group that includes three sophomores and four freshmen.

Replacing Wimbley will be junior Willie Jones. He made his first career start against NCSU, albeit on the other side, which will be manned by Alex Boston. Boston has started four of the last five games after the starter to begin the season, Darrell Burston, suffered a shoulder injury.

The secondary, particularly the corners, is another area full of youth. Freshman Tony Carter was forced into a starting role when Antonio Cromartie, who may have been FSU’s best player, went down with a knee injury during August workouts. Carter is somewhat undersized (5’9”, 160) but has impressed the staff despite a nagging injury the last few weeks.

Sophomore J.R. Bryant is the other corner. He has started the last two games after Gerard Ross suffered a knee injury. Both Bryant and Carter are backed up by freshmen, with Michael Ray Garvin been the third man in the rotation.

Seniors Pat Watkins and Kyler Hall are at the safety positions. Watkins is a preseason all-ACC selection entering who is in his second season as a starter. Hall redshirted last year but has started in the past and played both positions. He is a big hitter who is well-suited for the strong safety position.

The linebackers are without a doubt the strength of the defense. They have tons of experience, size, and speed. Florida State is the only school in the country with two players – A.J. Nicholson and Ernie Sims – selected as semifinalists for the Butkus Award.

Both are among the team leaders in tackles and tackles for loss. Nicholson was the National Defensive Player of the Week after his performance against Boston College (19 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 TD).

Middle linebackers Buster Davis (5’10, 237) and Sam McGrew (6’3”, 226) round out what may be the best linebacker corps in the country. Davis has started the last 20 games and McGrew has played in every game during his career.

The front and the secondary have been beset by injuries while the linebackers have been the rock of the defense. They are the one unit defensive Mickey Andrews has been able to rely upon during the season and he will do everything he can to allow them to force things.

FSU has given up over 125 yards rushing in each of the last three games. Duke had 191, Maryland went for 126, and N.C. State registered 196. Wake Forest also managed to gain 247 yards five weeks ago, but it should be noted that Wake had a long of 67, Duke’s was 78, and State’s was 65. Take away those three big plays and their average yard per rush is drastically reduced.

Still, Clemson is going to try to establish the run and, quite frankly, needs to do so. It will put much more pressure on the linebackers and should open up the passing game so that they can take advantage of the young corners. Clemson is 22-1 when rushing for 200 yards under Bowden and 44-0-1 all-time when rushing and passing for 200.

It is no coincidence that the Seminoles’ only two losses have been the only times all season their opponent scored on their first drive. To beat a team like Florida State you must jump on them early and often, both on downs and in the game. Otherwise, they can play with that ears-pinned-back attitude that has held opponents to a 27% conversion rate on third downs and very few points.

How well Clemson’s line fares will ultimately be the deciding factor. If they can do a good job of protecting the quarterback, Whitehurst or Proctor should be able to make enough plays in the passing game to give the Tigers a chance.

If Florida State is able to get good pressure, the game could ride on who the signal caller is. Virginia’s Marques Hagans led his team to victory because he made so much happen with his feet. He ended the night with negative rushing yards (-4) but he consistently avoided the rush and bought himself enough time to throw. That is where having Proctor in the game could play a significant role.

DEFENSE

Florida State leads the ACC in passing with 309.1 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. They are also tops in total offense (420) and scoring (33.9).

Freshmen Drew Weatherford has made a strong case for ACC Rookie of the Year. He has completed at least 65% of his passes in five games and is on track to eclipse Phillip Rivers’ ACC freshman passing record.

His favorite target has been freshman Greg Carr (6’6”). He has 22 receptions for 470 yards and nine touchdowns in eight games. Seventeen of his grabs have been for a first down or touchdown and his size has caused problems for defenders, as he has drawn five pass interference calls.

Junior wide receiver Chris Davis has led FSU in either receptions or receiving yards in five games this year and he has at least two catches in every contest. He is averaging nearly 14 yards per catch and has four touchdowns. He may be their most elusive player in the open field.

Senior Willie Reid leads the team with 99.3 all-purpose yards per game. He has the best outing of his career two weeks ago against Maryland when he totaled 227 all-purpose yards.

The running backs have been a strength all season, but they have taken a hit recently with the loss of Leon Washington to an ankle injury. He is not scheduled to play.

That leaves junior Lorenzo Booker and freshman Antone Smith to carry the load. Booker was the number one player in the country coming out of high school and he has shown why during his career. He currently leads the team with 403 yards rushing.

Smith has emerged as a force to be reckoned with as the season has progressed. He has been the team’s leading rusher the last three games with 12 carries for 104 yards. He has an astounding 6.1 yard per carry average.

The line is another unit that has been hurt by injuries. They lost one of their best players earlier this year when Matt Meinrod went down with an injury. Their play has been one of the reasons the Seminoles have practically had to abandon the run.

Their top player is center David Castillo. He is one of those rare six-year players after having been granted two redshirt seasons early in his career because of injuries. He is a team captain and has provided a lot of guidance for the younger guys.

The guards are sophomore Jacky Claude (6’4”, 300) and freshman Cornelius Lewis (6’4”, 328). Claude played in nine games last year but is in his first season as a starter. Lewis made his first start last week.

Cory Niblock (6’4”, 301) and David Overmyer (6’5”, 299) are the tackles. Niblock made the move to tackle this season after starting 11 games at guard in 2004. Overmyer is a name Clemson fans should remember, as he originally committed to the Tigers. He played in all 12 games last year and has started their last 10.

Tight ends Matt Henshaw and Donnie Carter are not huge threats but they are used enough to make defenses prepare for their presence. Henshaw has played in 40 games during his career and is the favorite target of the two.

As has always been the case with Florida State, the line is so good in pass protection because they have excellent feet and long arms. They have given up just 17 sacks in 322 pass attempts.

Their emphasis on the pass does not mean they have focused on just a couple of wide receivers. Seven different players have caught touchdowns and the same number has at least one play of more than 50 yards.

They have also used their backs more as receivers. Booker has 14 receptions for 91 yards in the last three games and has 30 for 253 yards and a touchdown on the year. This has been a key for them throughout the year because their backs are too good not to be involved in the game plan when the running attack is not clicking.

Florida State is 6-0 against Clemson when rushing for more than 100 yards and 5-0 when they have a quarterback that passes for at least 300 yards. The most amazing stat for their offense is their 202-1-1 record under Bobby Bowden when score at least 30 points.

They have gotten away from their traditional I-formation sets they have used so frequently the last few years in favor of three and four wide receiver sets out of the shotgun. This is because they are trying to spread the field because they have been somewhat one-dimensional.

Their offense has benefited from good field position and relied on the big play. The average scoring drive has been 52.8 yards and they have 14 touchdowns of 20 or more yards. As a result, they average just 6.35 plays on their scoring drives.

Weatherford has looked like anything but a freshman quarterback most of the season, especially since their opener against Miami. His one weakness has been the 13 interceptions he has thrown. Aside from that, he has been more than capable in his role as the leader is the pass happy attack.

It will be interesting to see how he reacts in an environment as hostile as Death Valley. He has yet to play in such a venue and, as was evidenced two years ago when Chris Rix had one of the worst games of his career, it can play a huge role in a quarterback’s performance.

N.C. State practically shut him down last week by incorporation a 3-1-7 defense. They dared FSU to run the ball and they could not. The extra defensive backs caused problems for the freshman quarterback as he went 19-of-38 for 181 yards and three interceptions.

I do not foresee Vic Koenning using such an oddity as the scheme State employed, but the chances of seeing more 3-3-5 is a good possibility. It gives the defense a chance to defend the run while putting an extra defensive back on the field. In certain situations such as third-and-long do not be surprised to see a dime package.

The defensive line must continue to shut down the run and get a good pass rush. If FSU can establish any semblance of a ground game the outlook of the game takes a very drastic turn because they have so many good skill players. Even if they continue their aerial assault, the pass rush is key because Weatherford can and will pick apart the holes in the zone.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Willie Reid is fifth in ACC history with a 14.4 yard punt return average. His 16.3 average currently leads the conference. He broke Deion Sanders’ single season record in 2004. The unit also had two blocks last week.

Punter Chris Hall has placed 15 of his 43 kicks inside the 20-yard line with 13 of those being downed inside the 15. He has allowed only two touchbacks and 64 yards on 10 returns.

Kicker Gary Cismesia is 12-of-16 on the year with a long of 49 and three kicks over 45 yards. He was named one of the semifinalists for the Lou Groza Award.

FSU is only giving up 21.2 yards per kickoff return while averaging just 20.4. Their punting unit is allowing 6.4 yards per return while they have scored once on punt returns and are averaging 12 yards per attempt.

Their numbers are not anything to cause great concern, but this is the portion of the game that could make all the difference. They have return men that are capable of going the distance at any point, especially Reid. Clemson’s kickoff coverage unit needs to continue the trend of recent weeks as must punter Cole Chason.

SUMMARY

Florida State is uncharacteristically young, but at the same time they are fairly experienced. Twelve true freshmen and 15 redshirt freshmen have seen action this year, although those numbers likely would not be as high if not for injuries.

Contrarily, they have 10 players that have started at least 20 games during their careers. There is plenty of experience mixed in with their youth, but the biggest problem seems to be the number of first and second-team players at key positions.

Just because they are young does not mean they are not talented. Sims, Smith, Booker, and Fred Rouse are four players that come to mind that were thought to be the top guys at their positions coming out of high school.

A lot has been made about N.C. State not doing Clemson any favors by winning last week. The “revenge factor” is a term that has been beaten to death the last few days because of last week’s loss and the result from two years ago.

That is all well and good but revenge does not win games. One could easily argue that the Seminoles will limp into this game with bloodied egos and not much to play for now that they have a spot in the ACC title game wrapped up.

There are so many questions out there that make this game hard to pick. Will FSU finally be able to run the ball? Can Clemson continue to be evenly balanced? Who will play quarterback?

I do not have the answers, at least not for certain. I do not think FSU will run the ball well on a consistent basis. I do think the offense can maintain a balance rather than not reverting back to being a one-dimensional team. And I think both quarterbacks will play.

A game such as this ultimately comes down to the line of scrimmage because the talent at the skill positions is good on both sides. Clemson’s line has performed well nearly all season and they have seen their fair share of studs. The defensive front is improving each week. Both quarterbacks have proven they are capable of efficiently directing the offense.

The only thing I do not like about picking the Tigers this week is the number of people who seem to think they will win. The masses are usually wrong when it comes to picking rivalry games that are expected to be close.

However, I have the feeling this might be the rare occasion when the majority is right. Clemson wins 23-21.

Roy Martin Chat Transcript from 11/11/05

Question: Which Clemson team shows up tomorrow?

Answer: Your guess is as good as mine. It is Senior Day and they really need this win, so I'm leaning towards the team that played Miami and NCSU.

Question: prediction for fsu game?

Answer: 23-21 Tigers. I don't know why but I just have a feeling.

Question: manpurse or backpack?

Answer: LOL. I carry a money clip and it's usually empty. Don't have a need to carry anything else.

Question: Who starts at QB?

Answer: I think Whitehurst as long as he's healthy enough. Ride the horse that got you there. Mobile QBs have given FSU problems so don't be surprised to see Proctor.

Question: do you get paid by the word? serious question though, who starts at QB? gut feeling?

Answer: LOL. I'm not smart enough to condencse my thoughts, but I do this more as a favor than for the money. Whitehurst.

Question: Any new news about Charlie?

Answer: No news that I'm aware of. The staff has done a good job of keeping things under wraps.

Question: Offensively, what matchups (or rather mismatches) should we try to exploit? Thanks.

Answer: They have very young corners and a rather inexperienced front. Of course, they're still very talented. The LBs are the best group in the country.

Question: Who runs the first trick play? Father or son? I think daddy may do something to get his guys jazzed up.

Answer: I think the trick play gig has been overplayed.

Question: Does an inexperienced D. Coleman vs. FSU's stud WR's concern you?

Answer: Nearly any CB in the league against those WRs would scare me if Weatherford is given time to throw.

Question: is the gilliam demotion simply a motivational ploy?

Answer: Who knows. Guys react differently to coaching techniques. Maybe Koenning has found a way to push his buttons.

Question: Is James Davis still in a cast?

Answer: He'll likely wear some sort of soft cast through next week.

Question: Does James Davis start?

Answer: I don't know. Who starts isn't as big of a factor as who gets hot.

Question: Overplayed? Has either run one the past couple years?

Answer: That's my point. Everyone talks about the trickeration expected between the two but there hasn't been a whole lot of it in the series, at least not recently.

Question: Roy Question about Goal Line offense. 1. Do you think the zone play down close is less effective because more folks are in the box thus eliminating cutback chances. 2 the two point stances on gl by our ol are you a fan of this or not?

Answer: I've never been a huge fan of the zone at the GL but some teams do have success with it. As for the 2 pt. stances, I think Clemson uses it enough that the guys are used to it, but I do think the 3 pt. stance is just as good if not better in certain situations.

Question: Any big recruits coming to the game?

Answer: I don't keep up with recruiting, at least not this time of year.

Question: Not sure if you can answer, but will Leon Washington play tomorrow?

Answer: I've been told no, but who knows. I do think he's a better back than Booker when he's healthy.

Question: Tommy has talked about FSU's formations being one of the causes of their rushing woes. Can you elaborate?

Answer: I think he meant they have gone to different formations in order to pass the ball because they have had so little success running it.

Question: Coleman or Lewis to get the start in place of Gilliam?

Answer: If it's one of those two I would have to say Coleman simply because he's been in big games and tight situations. Lewis is going to be a good one but he's not quite ready for this, IMO.

Question: Do you know if the FSU girls are making the trip?

Answer: I can only hope so.

Question: FSU will try to exploit the corner opposite Hill, agree?

Answer: I think they will try to exploit the entire field. Weatherford has thrown it as many as 59 times this year.

Question: Have you seen anything of Ray Ray practice, does he look to have any potential?

Answer: I haven't seen him at practice but I've been told he's full of potential. Some think he's the best athlete on the team.

Question: Roy, Our punts and kick coverage worry me more than off or Def. What's your take?

Answer: Punt and kick coverage has improved drastically in recent weeks. I still think the best play in football is kicking it through the end zone on kickoffs. May them go 80 yards to get a TD.

Question: Have we been tweaking our sometimes vulnerable punt protection?

Answer: I don't have a problem with the protection. It's the execution that has hurt Clemson. I'm sure they've put a little extra emphasis on it this week.

Question: By punts, I meant not getting it blocked. That is a real concern.

Answer: Yes it is. I think Clemson will not have a problem with that as long as they execute. There's a lot of pressure on the 3 personal protectors but they're not asked to do anything they aren't capable of doing.

Question: usc - fl prediction?

Answer: I honestly don't know. I haven't seen much of either team. I think it all depends on which team shows up for UF. USC has some momentum and it's hard to describe how much that can help a team.

Question: How effective will James Davis be?

Answer: Davis can be very effective if the line provides enough help. I don't think the arm is much of an issue at this point other than he's restricted to carrying the ball in the same hand.

Question: Do you think the Noles block a punt? SC native Lawrence Timmons blocked 2 for them last week!

Answer:

Question: Charlie or Will, how much do you think Charlie wil play?

Answer: Charlie if he's healthy. As long as he's effective I think you'll see him play the entire game. I don't think the coaches want to play musical chairs at QB.

Question: So you think our punting team's execution would be a good idea?

Answer: I think it would be a good idea for them to do what the coaches have taught them to do.

Question: If you had to name one defensive player and one offensive player who MUST perform well for us to win, who would they be?

Answer: Defensively - Whoever is at NG. Clemson had to get a good rush but they can't let FSU get on track running the ball. Offensively - Whoever is at QB. They need to make good reads. Mickey Andrews is going to throw a lot at CU.

Question: Florida or USC, who wins tomorrow and why?

Answer: I think USC has played a lesser schedule than some believe. Still, they have a lot of momentum. I don't know who wins.

Question: So how would you rate our new coordinators at this point?

Answer: I think both have done a very good job. Defense is a little easier to learn but Koenning has a lot of young guys. The offense has moved the ball well when they executed. No coordinator is going to look good when his guys are dropping balls, missing assignments, etc.

Question: Will Clemson use it's own "fumblerooski" to eek out a W vs. FSU?

Answer: No.

Question: Will Clemson be in Purple jersey/Orange pants combo? That is an ugly yet successful combo so far.

Answer: Don't know. I know the players didn't even know until they walked into the locker room the morning of most of the games. With it being Senior Day Bowden may let them vote. If so, look for some purple.

Question: Do you look for Merriweather and Davis to split the carries tomorrow?

Answer: Yes. They are a good one-two punch. Fresh legs will be key against FSU if it's tight in the 4th quarter.

Question: What do we have to do to win tomorrow?

Answer: Keep them from establishing a running game and continue to maintain balance on offense.

Question: Is it not an indication of how far we have come that there are this many people predicting a close game against a team that has pretty much owned us for the last 13 years?

Answer: I think so. People forget that FSU still rakes in talent. Fred Rouse, Antone Smith, Lorenzo Booker, and Ernie Sims are at least four players that were tops in the country at their respective position in high school.

Question: Who is going to Boise from the ACC this year?

Answer: I have no clue. I haven't begun to break down the bowl picture because there's too much that can still happen.

Question: Think we can slow down their passing game?

Answer: If Clemson gets a decent rush. If not, Weatherford could have a field day. One thing CU has in it's favor is the crowd. He has yet to see anything like it.

Question: Over/under on shots of Ann Bowden during tomorrow's broadcast?

Answer: 49...in the first quarter.

Question: Can Wetherford be rattled like Rix was in 2003? Crowd noise will help

Answer: Crowd can play a huge role. Of course, Rix was a nut case. I think Weatherford is much more even keeled.

Question: Who gets more rushing yards, RM or JD?

Answer: Damn if I know.

Question: In your opinion, is the SEC having a 'down' year? Will it be 'back' next year?

Answer: Yes, they are having a down year.

Question: Roy, while USC schedule may be down it is hard to argue what Spurrier has done with the talent he has regardless of who they have played and beaten. What do you think of the job he has done in Columbia?

Answer: I think a lot of Spurrier as a coach but an unbiased view says he hasn't done as much as people think. They've been blown out against the two best teams on their schedule. And didn't Holtz leave a lot of talent after all those top classes he signed?

Question: think we'll play 3-3-5 D alot i.e. NCST?

Answer: I think you will see some of it. May even see some dime in certain situations.

Question: Are you going to forecast a win for Clemson tomorrow?

Answer: I thought all week that they would win. Now that the masses have joined in I'm second guessing myself. But, I have to stick with my prediction of 23-21 in favor of CU.

Question: What the most important thing the Tigers need to do to win?

Answer: Control the line of scrimmage.

Question: At what point will Bobby finally give in to public opinion and fire Jeff Bowden?

Answer: That's a tough call. I think he's hoping Joe Pa gives up so he can quit and not have to make that decision.

Question: How do you think the off. line is progressing this year.

Answer: Very well. There are still mistakes here and there that shouldn't be happening but they have looked good overall. The best thing for CU is nearly everyone is back and the fresh. that are redshirting look good.

Question: Roy, talk about the secondary on Saturday

Answer: A definite cause for concern. They are capable but need help from the line. A pass rush will make their job a lot easier.

Question: I hate to sound like a Gamecock fan, but looking to next year, we are really looking good don't you think? We lose very few players.

Answer: Next year looks very promising. Fans and coaches just need to cross their fingers that no one gets in any type of trouble and the injury bug doesn't bite.

Question: What would be an acceptable overall record next year for Clemson? I hope this is an intelligent question, MBRO. lol

Answer: I honestly think it's way too early to answer that question because so many things can happen. I know it's not what you want to hear but it's the truth.

Question: Roy- what do you think about the two point stance the OL uses?

Answer: I don't have a problem with it. I think it gives them an advantage just as much it's a disadvantage. I do think a 3 pt. stance could help in certain short yardage situations but that's just my opinion. I don't know as much about line play as a lot of folks.

Question: WIll Clemson be able to sustain recruiting momentum and sign Bowden's best class this year?

Answer: I think they can. Guys like Dabo and Blackwell have really established themselves and Hobby is helping.

Question: how' FSU looking injury wise? how many starters will be out?

Answer: Not sure the number of starters that will be out but they have been hit hard this year. The secondary and O-line have been hit the hardest. I've seen some reports that say they only have 8 healthy bodies on the O-line.

Question: Think we'll see more passes to the TE next year with Durrell Barry and Paul Muse?

Answer: I think the TE will play more of a role as the offense evolves. Don't forget that Hunter is likely coming back. Muse is a guy that could end up on the other side of the ball.

Question: Do you think we'll see both quarterbacks being used Saturday?

Answer: Only if Charlie starts but is ineffective. I think he starts if he's healthy and will go the distance as long as isn't feeling any negative effects from the injury.

Question: not a CU question, but does Amato keep his job?

Answer: Before last week I would have said no. I think he does now. Many NCSU fans aren't happy about that.

Question: It seems that Chason has punted much better since that first punt against GT, any reason for that?

Answer: Not that I know of. Maybe Bowden told him one more like that and he could pack his bags. That's what I would have told him. Kickers and punters never have an excuse, IMO.

Question: Who has been the biggest "surprise" player this year for CU on offense and defense?

Answer: Defense - Michael Hamlin and Phillip Merling. They have performed well for freshmen. Offense - Thomas Hunter

Question: Explain the Paul Muse to defense theory. Several of the TAC experts disagree that he "could" play defense.

Answer: I think he could end up at DE but that's based on nothing more than appearance and talk I've heard.

Question: What do you think of our team's performance to date?

Answer: Realistically, I think it could have been better in the four losses. I've said all along that there have been 5 or so plays in each loss that could have turned the game. If any of those five plays are made Clemson likely wins. It's the little things that have hurt them.

Question: Bo you thing Browning has been under used? He seems to make good things happen

Answer: I don't think he's been under untilized. He's a scrappy guy that does seem to make things happen but he's had good guys in front of him all along. He should be a fan favorite because of his attitude and effort.

Question: Has there been a change in kickoff coverage personnel that has led to the better kick coverage?

Answer: If so, just one or two guys. I think it's pretty much the same unit that has been out there most of the year.

Question: Chansi Stuckey - Seems like he really got north/south in the Duke game after being Mr. East/West all year.

Answer: He did and he finally made some plays. Maybe the light has finally come on.

Question: with fla states offense, do we still defer if we win the toss?

Answer: I always like to defer.

Question: How about Akeem Robinson?

Answer: Akeem was as raw as they come when he arrived. I think he'll eventually find a role. He's basically had to learn the game since he arrived.

Question: Will the Valley be rocking tomorrow?

Answer: I would think so but it's up to the fans.

Question: What do you think about no tv for USC game?

Answer: I think it sucks for Clemson and USC fans but I also realized there are a lot of good games on that day. I do think JP made a huge mistake of not making it happen if they had the power to do so.