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YOUR BALANCE
It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

18

Mar 9, 2023, 1:25 PM

especially if you have already beaten them 2x, the probability drops even further. Don't shoot the messenger, I am am just reading the probability curves and applying some simple logic on this one and it does not look good.

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Re: Forget about past records...

15

Mar 9, 2023, 1:27 PM



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I try to save a life a day, usually it is my own.


The Record She is Smashing is Buffalo Gals


Mar 10, 2023, 9:35 AM

picture is from It's a Wonderful Life

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Classic Monty Hall problem.

7

Mar 9, 2023, 1:29 PM

https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0

Believe me, this coaching staff knows all of these maths.

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GO TIGERS


Door #3


Mar 9, 2023, 3:54 PM

https://youtu.be/tVRsseRMPiI

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Buffalo girl won't you come out tonight.***


Mar 9, 2023, 4:17 PM [ in reply to Classic Monty Hall problem. ]



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^^^Anti-Walt***

5

Mar 9, 2023, 1:31 PM



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Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner.

1
1

Mar 9, 2023, 1:52 PM

I truly doubt he has a source for that though. Like you and everyone think, seems the 3x straight thing more often doesn't work out for 2x winner.

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Here's an article with some numbers

2

Mar 9, 2023, 1:56 PM

https://coachbobwalsh.com/2018/03/02/its-hard-to-beat-a-team-three-times/


I also remember in the NFL a few years back the stats were like 60% in favor of the team who had won the previous 2 games.

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Small sample size of one team, but interesting data for sure.

1

Mar 9, 2023, 4:12 PM

I mean, based on a lifetime of watching sports it just "seems" the "it's hard to beat a team 3x" has held up. No data just a recollection which could obviously be wrong.

Either way, I just don't get the feeling we're going to see a game like the other two. Again, just a gut feeling.

Go Tigers, let's win!

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By the way, didn't initially see this:

1

Mar 9, 2023, 4:15 PM [ in reply to Here's an article with some numbers ]

"...across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting".

Obviously I stand corrected.

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Re: Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner.


Mar 9, 2023, 4:41 PM [ in reply to Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner. ]

Nope.

538 did a report on it.
Some of it depends on margin of error I previous 2 games. But no listed chance was over 55% favored chance to win.

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Nearly impossible?

6

Mar 9, 2023, 1:40 PM



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If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd

2

Mar 9, 2023, 1:43 PM

will be crowing about how Brad can’t win big games, didn’t have the team prepared, etc. You can take it to the bank.

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"All those 'Fire Brownell' guys can kiss it." -Joseph Girard III

"Everybody needs to know that Coach Brownell is arguably the best coach to come through Clemson." -PJ Hall


I bet the basketball cultists will disappear

7

Mar 9, 2023, 1:45 PM

for a day or so. Then, come back to defend BB for the 13th season in a row.

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"When I was young, I was sure of many things; now there are only two things of which I am sure: one is, that I am a miserable sinner; and the other, that Christ is an all-sufficient Saviour. He is well-taught who learns these two lessons." -John Newton


If we lose and Brad is gone, you can bet Miss Keller's focus

1
3

Mar 9, 2023, 1:56 PM

will turn on Bakich and how "new coaches don't always work out". Nevermind the fact the dude has coached 13 games NOT 13 years... That, and the inflammatory Dabo posts will ramp up exponentially.

She's sooo transparent.

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And that would be inaccurate???

1
2

Mar 9, 2023, 1:53 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

You are one GOOFY lady, Ma'am.

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Re: If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd

3

Mar 9, 2023, 1:55 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

Whoosh

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I have maintained the same position...

4

Mar 9, 2023, 1:59 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

since before the season started. It is the NCAAT or bust for Coach Brownell. If he can't coach this team to the NCAAT THIS YEAR, it's long past time to part ways.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Do you think he'll fire any assistants and try to rectify

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:06 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

the problems or just go with the status quo?

Who would you recommend?

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I think the new assistant mulligan has been used up.***

1

Mar 9, 2023, 4:13 PM



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I don’t see any significant problems.


Mar 9, 2023, 4:43 PM [ in reply to Do you think he'll fire any assistants and try to rectify ]

We are having one of the best seasons in program history.

No need to fire anyone.

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"All those 'Fire Brownell' guys can kiss it." -Joseph Girard III

"Everybody needs to know that Coach Brownell is arguably the best coach to come through Clemson." -PJ Hall


You seem to know his flaws pretty well.***

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:40 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]



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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


No, he won some big games.

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:50 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

He lost some serious head scratchers.

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There's something in these hills.


Good pre apology. Setting it up so win or lose you can say


Mar 9, 2023, 5:40 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]

I told you so.

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Re: If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd


Mar 9, 2023, 5:45 PM [ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ]


will be crowing about how Brad can’t win big games, didn’t have the team prepared, etc. You can take it to the bank.


JK you know Brownell is a great coach. Surely you do not think he is going to lose a prime time game. Great coaches thrive on this kind of pressure.

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MEG


You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...

8

Mar 9, 2023, 1:43 PM

tonight is in its Waning Gibbous phase. Currently, it is 16.85 cycle days old and 97.76% illuminated with a tilt of 4.735°. Knowing the approximate distance from Earth to the moon is 396,167.69 km and it currently resides in Libra, players will have to adjust their shots 6 to 9 inches right or left, depending.




It gets a bit ominous knowing Clemson Men's Varsity Basketball was the only Tiger program below the 3.0 GPA line, so the maffs involved are concerning and make the outcome that much more precarious.


https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=moon+cycle+march+9%2C+2023

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Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...

4

Mar 9, 2023, 2:29 PM


tonight is in its Waning Gibbous phase. Currently, it is 16.85 cycle days old and 97.76% illuminated with a tilt of 4.735°. Knowing the approximate distance from Earth to the moon is 396,167.69 km and it currently resides in Libra, players will have to adjust their shots 6 to 9 inches right or left, depending.




It gets a bit ominous knowing Clemson Men's Varsity Basketball was the only Tiger program below the 3.0 GPA line, so the maffs involved are concerning and make the outcome that much more precarious.


https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=moon+cycle+march+9%2C+2023






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I try to save a life a day, usually it is my own.


Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...

7

Mar 9, 2023, 2:57 PM



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Why do dogs always race to the door when the doorbell rings? It's almost never for them.


Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...

1

Mar 9, 2023, 3:17 PM






Not that high this time. I'm aiming for the twin peaks...
<img border=">

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I try to save a life a day, usually it is my own.


So ... are you saying Clemson could get a

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:52 PM [ in reply to You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon... ]

third win tonight over the NCSU Tobacco Road outcasts because things happen once in a blue moon?

🤔

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"When I was young, I was sure of many things; now there are only two things of which I am sure: one is, that I am a miserable sinner; and the other, that Christ is an all-sufficient Saviour. He is well-taught who learns these two lessons." -John Newton


Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

4

Mar 9, 2023, 1:44 PM

I'm thinking the biggest reason why it's so hard to beat a team 3 times in one season is because you very seldom ever play a team 3 times in one season.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 2:11 PM

Bud Brad can take a #5 seed and lose to a #13 seed (2020-21) when he's going for 3 times in a season.

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Clemson doesn't care about basketball....as evidenced by Brown-L getting 14 years.


That’s the exact reason that when I was coaching…

10

Mar 9, 2023, 1:50 PM

I would always lose to each opponent at least once. That way if we met again in the playoffs the other team would have a hard time beating us.

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"I've played multiple sports and would bet any amount that I'm still more athletic than you at this present time...."


Rookie

7

Mar 9, 2023, 1:53 PM

You lose BOTH games during the regular season, so that come conferecne tournament you are almost guaranteed a victory.

That's really playing chess vs checkers.

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Checkmate! :)***

1
2

Mar 9, 2023, 1:57 PM



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Seems Brad read your book & the main thing that saved UL...

5

Mar 9, 2023, 1:56 PM [ in reply to That’s the exact reason that when I was coaching… ]

from a 3rd meeting asswhoopin, appears to be the schedule?

Brad can't catch a break.



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I would typically lose to the other team

4

Mar 9, 2023, 2:17 PM [ in reply to That’s the exact reason that when I was coaching… ]

When I had bet on them to win instead of the team I was coaching.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

2

Mar 9, 2023, 1:53 PM

Good teams have no problem beating the same opponent three times in a season.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:04 PM

That may be true, but we're talking about Clemson basketball here! :)

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:06 PM [ in reply to Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season ]

That is based on performance variance. If one team is better than the other in a statistically significant way then you are correct, the better team has less difficulty winning a third time. However, the more equivalency there is between the two teams the more the odds swing to the team that has lost twice. Everything that goes up reaches a peak point where it then starts to go down.

If you are a golfer it applies when you see someone shoot 61 on one day and the next day they shoot 73. It is the same golfer on both days but the odds work against you as the sample size increases. The reversion to the mean is real.

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Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?

3

Mar 9, 2023, 2:11 PM

I think it probably does, but just wanted to confirm. This could be a tough postseason for us.

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Re: Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:27 PM

It applies to all random events. If you go to Vegas and play craps, is it easier to land on Red 2x in a row or 3x in a row? The more you let it ride the lower the odds of winning.

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Re: Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:34 PM

If I took all the emotion out of the game tonight and purely bet the odds, I would bet on NCS. I think this is partly why you see us as a slight underdog, even though we have already beaten them twice in the regular season.

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So if I randomly showed up at Vegas


Mar 9, 2023, 2:47 PM [ in reply to Re: Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once? ]

I would probably win big!! Booking my tickets now.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

1

Mar 9, 2023, 2:33 PM

It's probably one reason NC State is a 2.5 point favorite.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 2:35 PM

Funny, I just responded before seeing your response.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 3:31 PM

What are the odds if the same guy beats you up twice, of him beating you up the 3d time. I think the 3d time is slim to none bc, you're probably going to hall A$$ when he comes after you the 3d time...

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Re: you are


Mar 9, 2023, 3:32 PM

almost exactly right

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

1

Mar 9, 2023, 3:34 PM

It might be hard to do it 3x after having beaten them twice but it’s a whole lot harder to beat them 3x if you lost one or more of the first two games.



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You know why it's hard to beat a team 3x in a season?


Mar 9, 2023, 3:48 PM

First of all, you have to beat them once. Then you have to win a second time. Then...I hope you're sitting down...win a third time.

If you're flipping a coin three times, the probability of getting heads three times is 12.5% (1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2). But this is not flipping coins. Let's say that two teams are pretty equally matched. One might argue that going 1-1 in the first two matchups would be logical, then someone has to win and someone has to lose.

BUT if you are clearly better than the other team, winning the first, second or third time is pretty easy. Our football team would beat S.C. State three times or ten times in a single season.

Considering the previous matchups, we have played much better than the Pack. Despite the line and the talking heads, I think we win at a neutral site by 10. If things play out in typical fashion, and we don't get ahead of ourselves, and we don't choke, and we don't miss Hemenway too much...we win by 14. But I'll go with 10 to be safe.

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Re: You know why it's hard to beat a team 3x in a season?


Mar 9, 2023, 5:51 PM

I would not touch this game with my money. I honestly do not have a clue. Depends on if the A team shows up or the team we took out to play Louisville.

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MEG


Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 5:58 PM



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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 7:44 PM

NC State is a good team and their games vs us look like an anomaly when you look at their schedule. Tigers seem to be a tough match up for them so we have that going in our favor. However, their players are talking revenge, as they should, so they will be tough to beat tonight. Won’t be blowing them out or scoring 96 on them again. Roll the ball out there and let’s see what our fate is.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 10, 2023, 8:52 AM

droop75 said:

Won’t be blowing them out or scoring 96 on them again.




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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season

1

Mar 9, 2023, 7:53 PM

Over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 9, 2023, 9:21 PM

It is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to beat a team 3x if you have NOT beaten that team 2x already.

Impossible actually.

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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season


Mar 10, 2023, 9:00 AM

This aged like milk in a hot summer sun.......

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Screw Calford.


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