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TigerNet Champion [121323]
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It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:25 PM
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especially if you have already beaten them 2x, the probability drops even further. Don't shoot the messenger, I am am just reading the probability curves and applying some simple logic on this one and it does not look good.
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TigerNet Elite [73882]
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Re: Forget about past records...
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:27 PM
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Oculus Spirit [40350]
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The Record She is Smashing is Buffalo Gals
Mar 10, 2023, 9:35 AM
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picture is from It's a Wonderful Life
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CU Medallion [18217]
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110%er [3747]
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All-Time Great [88641]
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Clemson Conqueror [11544]
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^^^Anti-Walt***
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:31 PM
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CU Guru [1501]
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Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner.
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:52 PM
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I truly doubt he has a source for that though. Like you and everyone think, seems the 3x straight thing more often doesn't work out for 2x winner.
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Top TigerNet [31581]
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CU Guru [1501]
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Small sample size of one team, but interesting data for sure.
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Mar 9, 2023, 4:12 PM
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I mean, based on a lifetime of watching sports it just "seems" the "it's hard to beat a team 3x" has held up. No data just a recollection which could obviously be wrong.
Either way, I just don't get the feeling we're going to see a game like the other two. Again, just a gut feeling.
Go Tigers, let's win!
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CU Guru [1501]
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By the way, didn't initially see this:
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Mar 9, 2023, 4:15 PM
[ in reply to Here's an article with some numbers ] |
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"...across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting".
Obviously I stand corrected.
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CU Guru [1560]
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Re: Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner.
Mar 17, 2018, 3:16 PM
[ in reply to Yep. Deptoola says the percentages favor the 2x winner. ] |
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Nope.
538 did a report on it.
Some of it depends on margin of error I previous 2 games. But no listed chance was over 55% favored chance to win.
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Clemson Icon [24158]
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Nearly impossible?
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:40 PM
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Tiger Titan [50790]
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If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:43 PM
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will be crowing about how Brad can’t win big games, didn’t have the team prepared, etc. You can take it to the bank.
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TigerNet Elite [70028]
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I bet the basketball cultists will disappear
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:45 PM
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for a day or so. Then, come back to defend BB for the 13th season in a row.
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CU Guru [1501]
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If we lose and Brad is gone, you can bet Miss Keller's focus
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:56 PM
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will turn on Bakich and how "new coaches don't always work out". Nevermind the fact the dude has coached 13 games NOT 13 years... That, and the inflammatory Dabo posts will ramp up exponentially.
She's sooo transparent.
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CU Guru [1501]
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CU Medallion [18465]
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TigerNet Elite [69800]
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I have maintained the same position...
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:59 PM
[ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ] |
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since before the season started. It is the NCAAT or bust for Coach Brownell. If he can't coach this team to the NCAAT THIS YEAR, it's long past time to part ways.
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Clemson Icon [24764]
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CU Guru [1501]
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I think the new assistant mulligan has been used up.***
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Mar 9, 2023, 4:13 PM
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Tiger Titan [50790]
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Heisman Winner [78796]
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Clemson Sports Icon [55400]
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Oculus Spirit [42282]
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Oculus Spirit [44756]
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Re: If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd
Mar 9, 2023, 5:45 PM
[ in reply to If we lose tonight, you can bet that the anti-Brownell crowd ] |
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will be crowing about how Brad can’t win big games, didn’t have the team prepared, etc. You can take it to the bank.
JK you know Brownell is a great coach. Surely you do not think he is going to lose a prime time game. Great coaches thrive on this kind of pressure.
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TigerNet Champion [117416]
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You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:43 PM
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tonight is in its Waning Gibbous phase. Currently, it is 16.85 cycle days old and 97.76% illuminated with a tilt of 4.735°. Knowing the approximate distance from Earth to the moon is 396,167.69 km and it currently resides in Libra, players will have to adjust their shots 6 to 9 inches right or left, depending.
It gets a bit ominous knowing Clemson Men's Varsity Basketball was the only Tiger program below the 3.0 GPA line, so the maffs involved are concerning and make the outcome that much more precarious.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=moon+cycle+march+9%2C+2023
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TigerNet Elite [73882]
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Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:29 PM
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tonight is in its Waning Gibbous phase. Currently, it is 16.85 cycle days old and 97.76% illuminated with a tilt of 4.735°. Knowing the approximate distance from Earth to the moon is 396,167.69 km and it currently resides in Libra, players will have to adjust their shots 6 to 9 inches right or left, depending. It gets a bit ominous knowing Clemson Men's Varsity Basketball was the only Tiger program below the 3.0 GPA line, so the maffs involved are concerning and make the outcome that much more precarious. https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=moon+cycle+march+9%2C+2023
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Heisman Winner [86096]
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Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:57 PM
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TigerNet Elite [73882]
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Re: You're meticulous, so I'm sure you considered the moon...
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Mar 9, 2023, 3:17 PM
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Not that high this time. I'm aiming for the twin peaks...
 ">
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TigerNet Elite [70028]
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Orange Blooded [2349]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:44 PM
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I'm thinking the biggest reason why it's so hard to beat a team 3 times in one season is because you very seldom ever play a team 3 times in one season.
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All-In [10404]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 2:11 PM
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Bud Brad can take a #5 seed and lose to a #13 seed (2020-21) when he's going for 3 times in a season.
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TigerNet Icon [153231]
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That’s the exact reason that when I was coaching…
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:50 PM
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I would always lose to each opponent at least once. That way if we met again in the playoffs the other team would have a hard time beating us.
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Top TigerNet [31581]
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Rookie
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:53 PM
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You lose BOTH games during the regular season, so that come conferecne tournament you are almost guaranteed a victory.
That's really playing chess vs checkers.
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CU Guru [1501]
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Checkmate! :)***
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:57 PM
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TigerNet Champion [117416]
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Gridiron Giant [15457]
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Paw Master [17204]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 1:53 PM
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Good teams have no problem beating the same opponent three times in a season.
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Orange Blooded [2349]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:04 PM
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That may be true, but we're talking about Clemson basketball here! 
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Ring of Honor [22746]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:06 PM
[ in reply to Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season ] |
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That is based on performance variance. If one team is better than the other in a statistically significant way then you are correct, the better team has less difficulty winning a third time. However, the more equivalency there is between the two teams the more the odds swing to the team that has lost twice. Everything that goes up reaches a peak point where it then starts to go down.
If you are a golfer it applies when you see someone shoot 61 on one day and the next day they shoot 73. It is the same golfer on both days but the odds work against you as the sample size increases. The reversion to the mean is real.
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Gridiron Giant [15457]
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Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:11 PM
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I think it probably does, but just wanted to confirm. This could be a tough postseason for us.
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Ring of Honor [22746]
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Re: Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:27 PM
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It applies to all random events. If you go to Vegas and play craps, is it easier to land on Red 2x in a row or 3x in a row? The more you let it ride the lower the odds of winning.
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Ring of Honor [22746]
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Re: Does this apply to the teams that we have only played once?
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:34 PM
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If I took all the emotion out of the game tonight and purely bet the odds, I would bet on NCS. I think this is partly why you see us as a slight underdog, even though we have already beaten them twice in the regular season.
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Gridiron Giant [15457]
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Orange Blooded [2399]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 2:33 PM
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It's probably one reason NC State is a 2.5 point favorite.
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Ring of Honor [22746]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 2:35 PM
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Funny, I just responded before seeing your response.
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Orange Immortal [62850]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 3:31 PM
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What are the odds if the same guy beats you up twice, of him beating you up the 3d time. I think the 3d time is slim to none bc, you're probably going to hall A$$ when he comes after you the 3d time...
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Heisman Winner [78990]
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Re: you are
Mar 9, 2023, 3:32 PM
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almost exactly right
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Legend [6783]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 3:34 PM
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It might be hard to do it 3x after having beaten them twice but it’s a whole lot harder to beat them 3x if you lost one or more of the first two games.
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Rival Killer [2939]
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You know why it's hard to beat a team 3x in a season?
Mar 9, 2023, 3:48 PM
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First of all, you have to beat them once. Then you have to win a second time. Then...I hope you're sitting down...win a third time.
If you're flipping a coin three times, the probability of getting heads three times is 12.5% (1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2). But this is not flipping coins. Let's say that two teams are pretty equally matched. One might argue that going 1-1 in the first two matchups would be logical, then someone has to win and someone has to lose.
BUT if you are clearly better than the other team, winning the first, second or third time is pretty easy. Our football team would beat S.C. State three times or ten times in a single season.
Considering the previous matchups, we have played much better than the Pack. Despite the line and the talking heads, I think we win at a neutral site by 10. If things play out in typical fashion, and we don't get ahead of ourselves, and we don't choke, and we don't miss Hemenway too much...we win by 14. But I'll go with 10 to be safe.
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Oculus Spirit [44756]
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Re: You know why it's hard to beat a team 3x in a season?
Mar 9, 2023, 5:51 PM
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I would not touch this game with my money. I honestly do not have a clue. Depends on if the A team shows up or the team we took out to play Louisville.
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Rival Killer [2850]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 5:58 PM
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Varsity [105]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 7:44 PM
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NC State is a good team and their games vs us look like an anomaly when you look at their schedule. Tigers seem to be a tough match up for them so we have that going in our favor. However, their players are talking revenge, as they should, so they will be tough to beat tonight. Won’t be blowing them out or scoring 96 on them again. Roll the ball out there and let’s see what our fate is.
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Rival Killer [2939]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 10, 2023, 8:52 AM
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Won’t be blowing them out or scoring 96 on them again.
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Varsity [107]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
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Mar 9, 2023, 7:53 PM
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Over a 10-year period in college basketball including almost 1,000 games, the team that won the first 2 games won the third meeting 72.4% of the time. So it clearly doesn’t follow that it is hard to beat a team 3 times. In fact, it’s actually kind of easy.
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CU Guru [1560]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 9, 2023, 9:21 PM
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It is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to beat a team 3x if you have NOT beaten that team 2x already.
Impossible actually.
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Top TigerNet [32927]
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Re: It is nearly impossible to beat a team 3x in one season
Mar 10, 2023, 9:00 AM
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This aged like milk in a hot summer sun.......
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Replies: 57
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