Overall, my base case is that the Fed will tighten monetary policy until something breaks, which will force them to reverse course. It might be a recession, or it might be a near-recession slowdown.
In the prior cycle, it took a credit market freeze (late 2018, where they stopped raising rates), decelerating economic growth (mid 2019, where they did a mild interest rate cut) and a repo rate spike (late 2019, where they switched from QT to QE) for the Fed to reverse course on monetary tightening.
This time it could be credit markets again, or the Treasury market, or a couple quarters of recessionary indicators. Whatever breaks is usually not the specific thing that most people are looking for.
In each business cycle, the Fed is able to tighten monetary policy less than the previous cycle. Eventually, a stagflationary scenario, such as we are in now, is likely what will disrupt their approach. If the Fed is forced to stop tightening for any number of financial or economic reasons, while official inflation rates are still well-above their target due to supply-side shortages, then we’ll have effectively entered a new policy regime.
to actual corporate value. I mean if a bunch of trolls in their momma's basement can radically alter the stock value of a dying company. What's the point other than an opportunity for congress to get rich off of insider trading?
“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”
John Maynard Keynes
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
thought out argument grounded in facts and statistics about your political opinion regarding this topic and invite discussion and argument from other people who continue to tilt those windmills along with you rather than post throw away digs at politicians in response to politically neutral threads.
I mean, even just doing the second part would be great and would not require any effort but self-restraint.