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Replies: 13
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CU Medallion [73569]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 78044
Joined: 11/30/98
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Nasdaq down 3.5% again today, just lol
May 24, 2022, 10:14 AM
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CU Medallion [53146]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 21808
Joined: 11/16/05
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Bear market corrections coming...
May 24, 2022, 10:18 AM
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I don't even look in down markets. Too much stress.
Fed seems to have no clue on how to battle the inflation, war, a logistics system that seemingly hasn't recovered from COVID, etc. The world probably still playing catchup from the Suez block.
Tech taking huge hits lately really seems to hurt though.
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Orange Blooded [4612]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2256
Joined: 1/12/01
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This newsletter is a good read - we're kind of backed into
May 24, 2022, 1:30 PM
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a corner...
https://www.lynalden.com/may-2022-newsletter/![]()
Overall, my base case is that the Fed will tighten monetary policy until something breaks, which will force them to reverse course. It might be a recession, or it might be a near-recession slowdown.
In the prior cycle, it took a credit market freeze (late 2018, where they stopped raising rates), decelerating economic growth (mid 2019, where they did a mild interest rate cut) and a repo rate spike (late 2019, where they switched from QT to QE) for the Fed to reverse course on monetary tightening.
This time it could be credit markets again, or the Treasury market, or a couple quarters of recessionary indicators. Whatever breaks is usually not the specific thing that most people are looking for.
In each business cycle, the Fed is able to tighten monetary policy less than the previous cycle. Eventually, a stagflationary scenario, such as we are in now, is likely what will disrupt their approach. If the Fed is forced to stop tightening for any number of financial or economic reasons, while official inflation rates are still well-above their target due to supply-side shortages, then we’ll have effectively entered a new policy regime.
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CU Medallion [53146]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 21808
Joined: 11/16/05
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Sounds like the way Microsoft does business
May 24, 2022, 2:32 PM
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Call it great
Release news to masses
Wait for breaks
Focus on said break(s)
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Heisman Winner [135650]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 41578
Joined: 8/26/07
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Had to happen with the market having no relation
May 24, 2022, 10:30 AM
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to actual corporate value. I mean if a bunch of trolls in their momma's basement can radically alter the stock value of a dying company. What's the point other than an opportunity for congress to get rich off of insider trading?
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Hall of Famer [22381]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 31279
Joined: 11/30/98
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Trying to find a good entry point.
May 24, 2022, 10:39 AM
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Is it time?
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Heisman Winner [105441]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65158
Joined: 12/2/02
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Why get in now? You invest when the stock market is up and
May 24, 2022, 10:42 AM
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then sell when it goes down. It's the JOUNGE way.
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Hall of Famer [22381]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 31279
Joined: 11/30/98
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Diversification?***
May 24, 2022, 10:59 AM
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All-In [47663]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30358
Joined: 11/15/99
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Joe is ruining this great country***
May 24, 2022, 10:46 AM
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Oculus Spirit [81628]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 47097
Joined: 3/18/07
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You really struggle with the whole Lounge/P&R thing.***
May 24, 2022, 10:48 AM
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All-In [47663]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30358
Joined: 11/15/99
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I was responding to the original post.
May 24, 2022, 10:51 AM
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Please explain how to respond to a post in a different forum.
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Oculus Spirit [81628]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 47097
Joined: 3/18/07
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Simple, you don't respond to a Lounge post with your stupid
May 24, 2022, 10:52 AM
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P&R bullshittery, not that difficult.
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All-In [48799]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38793
Joined: 12/31/97
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You could try going over to P&R and making a lucid, well
May 24, 2022, 11:07 AM
[ in reply to I was responding to the original post. ] |
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thought out argument grounded in facts and statistics about your political opinion regarding this topic and invite discussion and argument from other people who continue to tilt those windmills along with you rather than post throw away digs at politicians in response to politically neutral threads.
I mean, even just doing the second part would be great and would not require any effort but self-restraint.
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Heisman Winner [105441]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65158
Joined: 12/2/02
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