Trying to see the long view ...question for the economists here. In looking

Apr 5, 2025, 8:07 AM

at real wage growth over the last 70 years, real wages moved up with productivity in the post-war era until the 1970s/80s. Then productivity leapt upward and wages went on a very modest growth track as manufacturing left, efficiencies in domestic production grew, and the economy shifted to be more service base. Manufacturing dropped from 20% of the economy to 8%. The higher wage earners have seen their paychecks increase, where the lower earners have seen theirs essentially flatline.

SO - if the goal is to bring back manufacturing, what type of manufacturing do we want? I go into plants all the time - Bosch, BMW, Volvo, all sorts of auto suppliers, defense suppliers, etc. These places are great - big, beautiful buildings - with technicians who make good $. My Clemson roommate is in HR at a plant, and shares starting wages for entry level workers. They make more than A LOT of Clemson grads, the company pays for tech school, and they set the workers up for financial success especially when you consider no school loans. The problem I see in my small sample size is that there just aren't many people who run those factories. Maybe at places like Ryobi, I see lots of people in cubes reconditioning returned hand tools, but I'm not sure building/refurbishing factories to make, say, stainless steel castings will move the needle much.

It feels like the system we have now is American exceptionalism where the most educated are making more, and we're exporting the crappy jobs like stitching Nike emblems on Pegasus shoes. The middle class has been gutted as a function of technology and competition, and those folks either switch to new fields or they get left behind in the old mill towns. I thought exceptionalism is what we wanted, otherwise we're just subsidizing mediocrity.

SO - the question is: if Trump's plan works, what manufacturing gets brought back here? If we bring back ALL of the plants that went overseas in the 70s/80s, do those plants have 1/4 of the workers that they had 50 years ago due to efficiency gains?

I don't see where the workers come from to fill these new factories if unemployment is low. Gov't welfare programs would need to be adjusted to push people to work more. This would be part of an overall comprehensive plan that I can't see just yet.

Please someone who is on board with the push to MAWA, lmk how this should work. Thanks.

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