Replies: 62
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Hall of Famer [20542]
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Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 5:35 PM
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The eyeballs say: "Oklahoma is playing the best football in the country right now."
Not sure I buy it.
Oklahoma is ranked #7 in the nation in total offense, which is impressive...until you consider the second question: who have they played? Because that #7 overall ranking on O puts them only at #4 overall in total offense in the Big 12...behind Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU.
So I did the digging, and came up with this: Oklahoma has played the following defenses: Akron (#17 overall) Tennessee (#46 overall) Tulsa (#125 overall) West Virginia (#55 overall) Texas (#107 overall) Kansas State (#100 overall) Texas Tech (#126 overall) Kansas (#127 overall, worst in college football - allowed 560 YARDS PER GAME!!!) Iowa State (#108 overall) Baylor (#59 overall) TCU (#66 overall) Oklahoma State (#95 overall)
Uh...OK, Oklahoma. So you played just two defenses in the Top-50 overall, and managed to play the three worst defenses in FCS (Kansas, Texas Tech, Tulsa) this year. That's some spectacularly crappy opposition. The best defense you faced was Akron - Akron! - at #17 overall.
Clemson, in contrast, ranks #12 in total offense. But we amassed those stats against Boston College (#1 overall), App State (#12 overall), Louisville (#13 overall), FSU (#15 overall), NC State (#19 overall), Notre Dame (#38 overall), and Wake Forest (#39 overall)...almost all of whom have better defenses than Oklahoma, which ranks just #31 overall in total D.
Clemson ranks seventh.
We also have three wins over Top-10 opponents, Oklahoma none. Their best wins were over a Baylor team reduced to its third-string QB, a crippled TCU team missing a myriad of starters, and an Oklahoma State team that just plain was never that good to begin with.
Not sure how anybody, including Vegas or ESPN's fuzzy "FPI", somehow projects that Oklahoma is the better team...or that Oklahoma somehow has a 67% chance of winning.
The bottom line is that if Clemson's defense plays well, they are a significantly better defense - actually a couple orders of magnitude better - than anybody Oklahoma has played all year. They will likely have trouble moving the ball.
Contrariwise, there is no indicator whatsoever that Oklahoma's D will present Clemson's offense with any particular problems moving the ball. They managed to make Cole Stoudt look like a Heisman candidate last year; while they've improved some this year they are not a Top-25 defense...and Clemson actually has a legit Heisman candidate under center this year.
Oklahoma looks, per the stats, like a bit of an inflated paper tiger, if you'll pardon the term. I would posit they are a better team than last year and the stats reflect this; but are they any better than, say, UNC? The stats do not show this. In particular the lack of quality defenses they have faced raises serious questions about how well Oklahoma will fare against Clemson's pass rush, especially since in the one game they lost - Texas - they got thoroughly whipped on the line of scrimmage.
Clemson is much better on the LOS than Texas is.
The bottom line is that the Big 12 has been pretty terrible the last few years, thin in both numbers and quality...and they managed to manufacture four "Top 10" teams per the rankings by playing absolutely nobody outside themselves and getting a bunch of teams unbeaten into December...whereupon they duly ended up wiping each other out. But when you watch Big 12 defenses in particular you see they're absolutely awful, and there's very little in the resumes of these Big 12 teams that suggest they're really any better than middle-of-the-pack SEC or ACC teams like NC State or Ole Miss. It just isn't exposed - at least until bowl season - because for the last few years they just plain don't play anybody.
Oklahoma's best OOC win? At Tennessee. And that required an almost miraculous fourth-quarter comeback. And that was, by a fairly significant margin, the Big 12's best OOC victory of the entire season.
So I'm not following what Vegas or FPI are seeing. I'm not sold Oklahoma is any better than UNC.
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All-TigerNet [10498]
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This was a great confidence boost
Dec 7, 2015, 5:43 PM
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Thanks for the write up!
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CU Guru [1906]
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SSSSSHHHHHHHH!!
Dec 7, 2015, 5:47 PM
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I love being the underdog, don't you?
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Freshman [1]
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Re: SSSSSHHHHHHHH!!
Dec 7, 2015, 11:12 PM
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You should because you are.
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Orange Blooded [2112]
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Re: SSSSSHHHHHHHH!!
Dec 7, 2015, 11:19 PM
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Yep and we were the underdog against Notre Dame and we were the underdog against UNC and we were the underdogs against FSU. And we were on upset alert against the NC State and upset alert against South Carolina.
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Orange Blooded [2455]
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Don't forget OU last year, tOSU before, and LSU before that***
Dec 8, 2015, 12:59 AM
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CU Medallion [55433]
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Re: SSSSSHHHHHHHH!!
Dec 8, 2015, 4:06 AM
[ in reply to Re: SSSSSHHHHHHHH!! ] |
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### it, you have been ask to keep chitty stats to your self. If this was to get out to esecpn or Vegas, and we would end up being a 3 and a half TD favorite. Then our guys would walk into the game with a big head. The chips that were on their shoulders, would be walked on under their feet. So for Christ sake, SHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, be quiet!!!!!!!!!
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Orange Blooded [3311]
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This guy though...
Dec 8, 2015, 9:49 AM
[ in reply to Re: SSSSSHHHHHHHH!! ] |
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It's just funny how people can be this blind.
Good luck dealing with a Clemson Natty. I know your little hear will be broken.
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All-In [25393]
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Well, they ARE Okralahomer after all, and they ARE a
Dec 7, 2015, 5:48 PM
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"storied" program...so they DESERVE to be the favorites.
Only problem I've had with them is that the story is just that...a story told by idiots full of sound and fury...and signifying nothing other than the fact that they beat up on other teams WITH NO FREAKIN' DEFENSES!
Nevertheless, let's not dare get in the way of their boasts, claims and derisive comments. I mean what else do they have to do out there but watch prairie dogs, dodge tornadoes and pontificate.
WE'RE GONNA WIPE THEIR BEHINDS FROM ONE END OF THAT FIELD TO THE OTHER.....JUST LIKE THE LAST TIME WE FACED THEM!
GO TIGERRRRRRRRRRRRS!!!! STOMP THE SOONERS!!!! (P.S Thanks again, Q!)
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Letterman [298]
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Re: Well, they ARE Okralahomer after all, and they ARE a
Dec 8, 2015, 9:40 AM
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The Sooners are just scared and know we will whip that ### again this year.
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CU Guru [1497]
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The land thieves do have a good team. They have several
Dec 7, 2015, 5:54 PM
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athletes who can run with our guys.
Overall, they will be exposed once again though. The Big XII virtually plays no defense, leading to the exaggerated offensive stats seen across the league.
They also seem to think that since they "run up the score" so often that others have no clue how to run or defend a HUNH offense; I'm fairly sure Brent knows how that works...
I will be licking my chops watching the land thieves go down once again on the big stage.
Clemson - 38 OU - 17
I am usually pretty close with my predictions, we shall see.
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Freshman [1]
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Re: The land thieves do have a good team. They have several
Dec 8, 2015, 12:41 PM
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The only thing that will get exposed is your defense, when they get spread all over the feild like Trevor Knight spreads your women! You have not seen a spread attack like ours, even though you think you have. This is going to be awesome to watch!
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MVP [508]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 5:57 PM
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And by the time December 31st gets here, our guys will have fully healed, rested, studied and prepared for the "Settlers". I expect it to be back and forth, but it should be a comfortable win. If our D shows up, It's over. GO TIGERS!!!!
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Oculus Spirit [90820]
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Hey "Q"...after that analogy I'm betting my RUM $ on TiGS!
Dec 7, 2015, 5:59 PM
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TIA...and GoTiGERS, #1 BABY.
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All-TigerNet [10929]
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Holy Akron, Batman. Who did they play?***
Dec 7, 2015, 6:05 PM
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1st Rounder [614]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 6:18 PM
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Oklahoma the last month of the season has looked great ! Doesn't matter who you play, it's how you play them. Dabo even preaches this, and anyone that doesn't think that Oklahoma isn't kind of mirror image of us in the way they play balanced offense and defense, hasn't watched them play. Better than UNC on offense, probably not as good as FSU on defense. Definitely way better than Notre Dame on both sides of the ball
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CU Medallion [55433]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 8, 2015, 4:10 AM
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They don't have a mirror to look at their D with. So you to, shhhhhhhhh
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CU Guru [1407]
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Just used your points to correct a blowhard Sooner. Thanks!***
Dec 7, 2015, 7:46 PM
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Orange Blooded [4249]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 8:21 PM
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Great post.
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CU Guru [1832]
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I was thinking the same thing.
Dec 7, 2015, 9:20 PM
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I would say they aren't the 4th best team in the nation, but I don't know who would be better out of the remaining teams. I'm happy we're playing them and truly feel Michigan State deserved the 3 spot (I actually feel add though they probably deserve the 2 spot, but Bama). I think the pundits have both semi-finals wrong. I think the championship will be Clemson vs Michigan State, though I would love to play Bama and put them in their place.
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Orange Blooded [2111]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 9:31 PM
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I like your writing style. Researched, clear and concise. Well done
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 9:32 PM
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I pretty much have the same viewpoints, but your post is way better than mine. They don't impress me either. I guess if you're a sooner fan, then you might drink their Koolaid.
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Legend [19919]
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excellent research
Dec 7, 2015, 10:17 PM
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After seeing an incredible Brissett not able to keep up, After watching a talented ND o trying to play catch up, After seeing an amazing FSU d not having an answer for DW4, And after watching a solid UNC o's best runner and receiver being limited, I feel comfortable saying the Sooners won't bring anything the Tigers haven't seen.
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Legend [16263]
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Here's the way I see it... We'll be the best Offense AND
Dec 7, 2015, 10:57 PM
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Defense that OU has faced all year easily, all wrapped up into one team. They MAY be the best Offense, but not the best Defense, that we will have faced all year.
Big Game Bob vs. Dabo
I like our chances in this one. It won't be a RAB, but we've proven that we can control a game, and we'll be rested and ready to take it up a notch come Miami.
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Mascot [22]
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Re: Here's the way I see it... We'll be the best Offense AND
Dec 7, 2015, 11:05 PM
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Also guys you gotta remember we got a guy that knows all about Oklahoma with Venables so I'm expecting big win just like last year!!
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Legend [16263]
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I'm suuuurre Venables doesn't have any extra motivation
Dec 7, 2015, 11:38 PM
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either to want to Out-D the Stoops in this one. So no extra edge there I wouldn't think. Just another game - next up. Heh heh.
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Freshman [1]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 11:09 PM
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Lol..you said trouble moving the ball! On Dec 31st we will see who the better team is.
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Orange Blooded [2455]
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Yes... that's the idea behind the playoffs, isn't it?
Dec 8, 2015, 1:00 AM
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Such a keen observation. So glad that you came over here to share such profound insights.
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CU Guru [1052]
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All-In [39020]
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Legend [15914]
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Looks like you hurt a Sooners fan and got a TD.***
Dec 7, 2015, 11:17 PM
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110%er [7148]
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actually was a slumcock who got bama's and OU's
Dec 8, 2015, 8:47 AM
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uniforms mixed up.
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Legend [15492]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 11:19 PM
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Good post. It's also worth noting that Oklahoma's "quality wins" were TCU, Baylor and Okl.State. Oklahoma played each of those teams minus their starting quarterbacks. TCU minus Boykin, Baylor minus both Russel and Stidham and Oklahoma State was without starter Mason Rudolf.
Not exactly the "quality" it appears.
Go Tigers
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Rock Defender [74]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 11:25 PM
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The question then is, are the Big 12 defenses ranked that low because they are bad, or because they play great offenses every other game?
Seems like a case of spring game; you never know if the offense is bad or the defense is good and vice versa.
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1st Rounder [616]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 7, 2015, 11:56 PM
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Interesting post.
Stats are hard to interpret sometimes. I think the offenses in the Big 12 may be the best in the country. So it's hard to say if the defenses are so poor or the ofences are so good. It's probably a mix, and so I agree with you that OU may be a little overrated. But not much. I really like their QB. He plays smart and tough. He's competitive. And I think he has a lot of confidence now.
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Tiger Cub [11]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 8, 2015, 12:16 AM
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OU lifer here. Interesting numbers . Sure are a lot of them. I guess we've lost the stats contest. Why don't we go ahead and play the game, anyway? Just to see what happens.
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CU Guru [1813]
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I'm not disagreeing with you, but the narrative is that the
Dec 8, 2015, 12:23 AM
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defense rankings in the Big XII are so bad because the offenses are so good. Again, I'm not saying I agree with that sentiment, but that's what you will hear Big XII/OU/the media say with regards to these statistics.
I think we know that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle like always. Our two teams are probably very similar. They recruit at a similar level and they are both well coached. If can clean up our act a bit, not turn the ball over, keep the offense rolling, we'll be fine. Their QB is a gamer and we need to break his spirit early if at all possible.
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Walk-On [123]
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You forgot to say Oklahoma beat backup QBs
Dec 8, 2015, 1:36 AM
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Talked heads have said Oklahoma is playing its beat football at right time..that could be true, but our mediocre games would still beat the teams they've beat.
Oklahoma has been beating backup QBs when playing Baylor and TCU..they beat TCU by a point. TCU chose to go for two and the win instead of play for over time. That was their second to last game. Then they killed Oklahoma state. A team with very little defense.
Clemson will have the defense they has at beginning of the year and the offense that has been putting up over 500 and 600 yard game. I think we win, maybe not by alot, but certainly should be favored.
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Orange Blooded [2283]
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You can throw those stats out the window
Dec 8, 2015, 6:49 AM
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I believe Clemson is the better team and will win, but you don't have to outgain another team to win if they are giving you a shorter field. The stats I'm concerned with relate to turnovers and special teams. We were clearly a better team than UNC, but we kept them in the game because of this.
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Oculus Spirit [93686]
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So the POC got it right?
Dec 8, 2015, 6:55 AM
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OU didn't drop to #4 to protect Bama from playing them in Texas they dropped because they are the weakest link.
I never thought OU deserved a PO game. I would have been aggressively pushing for Stanford to move to #4 ahead of OU. IMO, there isn't a Big 12 team worthy of a top ten ranking.
I had to apologize again for over estimating the playoff committee. I was certain if Stanford won their championship they would make the cut.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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i thought you were an S/P+ fan?***
Dec 8, 2015, 6:58 AM
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Oculus Spirit [93686]
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The Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game.
Dec 8, 2015, 7:17 AM
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IMO, that's a big deal. I though it would be with the committee too.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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has nothing to do with the S/P+ or efficiencies, which are
Dec 8, 2015, 7:39 AM
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a plenty. weren't you using S/P+ earlier to offset ESPN's bias?
i wish they'd mandate the "13th" game, but i don't believe they should downgrade those that don't as much as laud those that do eg. osu last year.
it was a backroom deal to get all the conferences & independents to agree with the 4 team playoff, which for those that don't know is not an NC2A sanctioned championship.
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Oculus Spirit [93686]
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The deal was based mostly on economics considerations.
Dec 8, 2015, 8:43 AM
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The committee was fair to give the Big 12 a seed being that they had a clear conference winner. I actually felt they had a clear winner last year and I can appreciate that Stanford had two losses this season while OU had only one.
I used the S&PF+ to counter ESPiN's bullchit. I appreciate that stats become more significant when all games are played. That being said I think teams that throw a bunch of points on weaker opponents gain more in the stat column. The Miami game was somewhat of a fluke and not our standard procedure.
More importantly, I did not know the NCAA didn't sanction the PO. I guessed that the commissioners got sick and tired of the SEC getting an unfair percentage of the BCS money. I'm guessing about this. I didn't track such issues until a couple years ago. It seemed the SEC always had five or six teams playing in the top ten top money bowls year after year.
It appears the commissioners felt the money belonged to everyone and should be shared more equally. For the most part they got what they wanted.
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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S/P+ and other efficiencies are valuable, but not everything
Dec 8, 2015, 8:54 AM
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yet it's silly to divorce ourselves of these or the money issue because they have importance.
the playoff was the next evolution and finally lay the BCS to rest with the LSU-Bama rematch the likely final nail.
money is not evil, people are evil and sometimes has the stoopid, but paint me silly for i still like both. well, some more than others.
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Freshman [1]
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CU Medallion [55787]
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Thanks for putting #s to what I've been thinking.***
Dec 8, 2015, 7:04 AM
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Orange Blooded [2619]
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+1 for the great analysis but like some others I would
Dec 8, 2015, 7:08 AM
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rather the team think we're underdogs or being disrespected (which we are by a lot of the media and Vegas) because we seem to play so much more focused with an edge!! Go Tigers!!!
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Orange Blooded [3510]
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All stats are a reflection of
Dec 8, 2015, 9:13 AM
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The team and who they play. OU is in a conference with a lot of fast paced offenses and relatively less D. This probably makes their offensive numbers look better and their defensive numbers look worse than they really are. Clemson on the other hand plays a lot of teams that emphasize the D but don't excel in offense. Thus making our D (and those of the conf) look better than it perhaps is while our offense doesn't look as strong. OUs D has faced an offensive scheme similar to ours much more often this season than we have faced one similar to theirs. Clemson has probably faced a defense similar to OU more than OU has ours.
In the end I suspect the offenses and defenses of Clemson and OU are probably pretty closely matched. The best analog for OU we have is probably UNC except with a better DL and rush defense but without as strong a set of WRs (individually OU has some better ones). Not sure that there is a good analog for Clemson on the OU schedule - perhaps a combination of Baylor and Tennessee but with a better D (assuming the "good D" plays) and much better QB.
I do expect the Tigers to win but believe this will be a high-scoring affair.
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Letterman [298]
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Re: All stats are a reflection of
Dec 8, 2015, 9:42 AM
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Do you really think OU can handle Watson? A much better quarterback than Baker Mayfield Milk.
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Orange Blooded [3510]
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Not saying that
Dec 8, 2015, 1:23 PM
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Just saying I'm just not sure I would say that their offensive stats are a result of everyone playing bad D. Nor would I say their D isn't good (in fact I believe their front 7 is very good and they have an All-American CB). Until I see otherwise, and I have watched a couple of their games, I am inclined to believe this game is going to be a hard fought contest.
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Mascot [21]
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Re: All stats are a reflection of
Dec 8, 2015, 10:05 AM
[ in reply to All stats are a reflection of ] |
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> In the end I suspect the offenses and defenses of > Clemson and OU are probably pretty closely matched. > The best analog for OU we have is probably UNC > C except with a better DL and rush defense but > without as strong a set of WRs (individually OU has > some better ones). Not sure that there is a good > analog for Clemson on the OU schedule - perhaps a > combination of Baylor and Tennessee but with a better > D (assuming the "good D" plays) and much better QB. > > I do expect the Tigers to win but believe this will > be a high-scoring affair.
Offensively I would say they could be similar as Fedora and Littrell are from the same coaching trees and run some form of an Air Raid variant. Riley has learned his personnel as the season has progressed and integrated more dual back run / pass option with Mixon and Perine, slowly utilized the H-back and TE and moved away from zone blocking to more hat on hat blocking. Go watch the film and you will OU run more power than probably any other Air Raid team (how many Air Raid teams pull both the Tackle and Guard?)
Defensively UNC is terrible, I was shocked that you guys just didn't pound away on their run defense, I think your playing calling was a bit suspect at time and made the game close than it needed to be. Defensively the better analog is probably ND based upon the front 7 play and the backend corners.
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Varsity [208]
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Re: All stats are a reflection of
Dec 8, 2015, 12:47 PM
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What the hell are you talking about? Clemson had 600 plus yards and 300 plus on the ground and you're saying we didn't pound away on their run defense? Did you watch our game at all? We ran right down their throats in the 2nd half. They couldn't stop it. If our play calling was suspect, I'll take it all day long. You do know we have had 500+ in 8 straight games correct?
We get it, OU is good, the best we will have played at this point, but to act like this team is leaps and bounds much better than other competition we have already played is a little close minded, IMO.
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Mascot [21]
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Re: Is Oklahoma really that good? Don't see it on the stats.
Dec 8, 2015, 9:35 AM
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I would be excited if I was playing anyone of those teams as well, but funny thing those stats are no reflection on the type of football Oklahoma plays. Here is the thing, after the Texas game where OU got out played and coached they have taken care of business. Those stats might be enlightening if OU hadn't gone out and taken control and won all those games going away. (OK, TCU was a nail biter, but prior to Mayfield going down for the game with a concussion, OU was controlling the game at 23-7). That is the thing, they did what a good team is supposed to do, win and win easy.
And will you guys just stop with the 40-6 win last year, every OU fan knows we sucked last year, OU had already lost 4 games that year, and had lost ugly. It was a craptastic team, that 22 players starting but not playing as a team, a coaching staff that on both sides of the ball that has been flipped and starting QB who threw 2 less ints in that game than Mayfield has thrown all season. You think your coaches are thinking, how can OU play with us they couldn't stay with Cole?
Can say that Clemson took control of their games down the stretch and won going away?
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Orange Blooded [2519]
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You can't look at just total defense numbers in the BigXII
Dec 8, 2015, 9:46 AM
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they have so many more possessions than most other teams.
To get any accurate reading you must go to more advanced stats that include points per possession and such.
Okla is good and will be tough to beat.
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110%er [5915]
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Re: You can't look at just total defense numbers in the BigXII
Dec 8, 2015, 9:51 AM
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> they have so many more possessions than most other > teams. > > To get any accurate reading you must go to more > advanced stats that include points per possession and > such. > > Okla is good and will be tough to beat.
How do you factor in, Oklahoma played Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State when they did not play their first string QBs?
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All-TigerNet [10938]
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actually a couple orders of magnitude...
Dec 8, 2015, 9:47 AM
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good one charlie
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Starter [383]
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Trail of Tears****
Dec 8, 2015, 12:13 PM
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Oklahoma should be familiar with that phrase. It's how they settled their state/stole it from the Indians. It's how they have looked in a few BCS bowl games when they were favorites. And it's how they looked when they faced our beloved Tigers last season, without our best player, when they folded like a cheap tent in the 1st quarter after we punched them in the mouth.
I think the author of this post nailed it. 48-14 good guys. And the Gameday sign nailed it too. "Even your mascot is a bandwagon"
GO TIGERS!
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Freshman [1]
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Re: Trail of Tears****
Dec 8, 2015, 12:33 PM
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Yeah, because this is last year and nothing has changed! Do you live in a time warp along with every other delusional baby tiger fan?
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Tiger Cub [11]
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Re: Trail of Tears****
Dec 8, 2015, 12:45 PM
[ in reply to Trail of Tears**** ] |
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Kudos for using an incident in which over 4,000 people died to make a point about football...
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Tiger Cub [11]
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Joined: 12/5/15
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Re: Trail of Tears****
Dec 8, 2015, 12:54 PM
[ in reply to Trail of Tears**** ] |
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Maybe next time you can work in a hilarious Holocaust or World Trade Center analogy...
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CU Guru [1080]
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The reason I thumbed up this post....
Dec 8, 2015, 12:16 PM
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Contrariwise
Great word
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Orange Blooded [4444]
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POTY! Excellent.***
Dec 8, 2015, 12:39 PM
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