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Orange Phenom [14752]
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The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
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Nov 18, 2024, 4:29 PM
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I've been saying for some time now that I think it is time to stop the slaughter of human life and bring the war in Ukraine to a conclusion.
For the past two years - the Eastern front in Ukraine has essentially become a largely static WWI type battlefield:
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895
It's obvious that Ukraine no longer has the combat power to pursue a knockout offensive capable of pushing the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine. Like it or not - the Russian's have largely conquered the Donbas with no intention of giving it up.
There are certain battlefield realities for Ukraine that no manner of additional US weaponry is going to fix. The most important one is manpower. In simple terms - Ukraine is running out of manpower to execute this war.
At the start of this conflict, the average front line troop for Ukraine was 31 years old. Over the past 2 years of fighting and attrition that average age of the Ukraine fighting troop has increased to 43 years of age. It was troubling enough when Ukraine was relying on 31 year old fighters but to see that age increase by 10 years in such a short period speaks to a huge manpower issue.
According to Ukraine's military leadership they need an additional 500,000 troops in short order:
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-needs-500-000-more-troops-amid-slowing-mobilization-senior-lawmaker-says/
However, there is a serious question as to where those 500,000 troops will come from. Ukraine has multiple issues on the manpower front from a growing draft dodging problem to a serious availability problem:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-needs-soldiers-fight-russia-men-dodging-draft-zelenskyy-rcna152121
As these articles point out - many of the fighting age men in Ukraine are actively seeking to avoid serving in the military. This is not some far off foreign-land war but a war on their own native soil in which these Ukrainian men are unwilling to fight. When a patriotic war against a homeland invader starts to have these kinds of problems - it is a troubling sign that the Ukrainian citizenry don't feel their lives are worth the effort of removing the invaders from their own lands. If this movement grows - it will spell disaster for Ukraine.
Here's a graphic of Ukraine's male population by age group:
War is a young man's game - the rigors of combat practically demand youthful bodies to carry it out. There is a reason we tend to recruit and draft young men between the ages of 18 to 25. Ukraine's problem from the start of this conflict is that they have a serious shortage of manpower in that very age demographic. If Ukraine has to heavily pull from their limited 18 to 25 year old pool they seriously risk losing a whole generation of men. This could be catastrophic to their culture and their long term national survival.
Time is no longer on Ukraine's side. They have fought beyond valiantly but the realities of having limited manpower resources in a protracted war with a mostly stagnant front line are about to hit Ukraine in a real bad way. Advanced western weaponry and other military equipment aid are not going to solve this basic manpower problem of warfare. I see no scenario, without direct troop intervention from Europe, NATO, or the USA, that is going to push Russia out of Eastern Ukraine. However, if NATO troops are sent into Ukraine to fight the Russians - that will trigger WWIII and the consequences of this could be devastating beyond our worst imaginings.
IMO, for the warhawk politicos to continue pushing a narrative that Ukraine, by themselves, can push Russia out of the Donbas is simply to ignore the battlefield and manpower resourcing realities. I have always abhorred the useless military slaughter of human life without achievable, tangible battlefield results. That is why reading accounts of WWI almost always fills me with an utter contempt and disgust for the military and civilian Government leaders of that era. During WWI its as if a form of insanity gripped all the leaders of the warring nations where a drawn out, industrialized and senseless slaughter of human life was perfectly acceptable. To me the Ukraine-Russia war has reached that same stage of stagnant drawn out slaughter of human life.
All war concludes in one of two ways: a victor totally imposing their will on a loser; OR a negotiated end to hostilities where neither side gets everything they want. I feel we are well beyond the point of where a Ukraine-Russian negotiated end of hostilities is not only warranted but the humane and necessary thing to do.
I expect any negotiated settlement will have Putin keeping the Donbas region, Ukraine maintaining their sovereignty with guarantee they will not be allowed to join NATO. As distasteful and abhorrent as it is to see Putin get a chunk of Ukraine, I think this is as good of a deal as Ukraine is going to get.
Time is on Russia's side and the battlefield situation is such that they can afford to wait. I don't think time is on Ukraine's side and for the USA to continue the facade of a total Ukraine victory being within their grasp is to deny reality with a continuation of senseless slaughter.
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Gridiron Giant [15521]
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Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
Nov 18, 2024, 4:33 PM
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Agreed. And I’m far from MAGA. (Just pointing that out because I’m sure the board troll will be by soon.)
How it’s ended, I have no clue tho.
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Orange Phenom [14752]
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This has nothing to do with liking or hating Trump, Biden, Putin or Zelenskyy...
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Nov 18, 2024, 4:42 PM
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The battlefield has it's own truth regardless of the propaganda or political affiliation. The battlefield truth is that Ukraine can't win on it's own (win defined as pushing Russia out of Eastern Ukraine) without direct NATO intervention. If NATO intervenes this will turn a Ukraine-Russia conflict into a world conflict with potentially doomsday level consequences.
It is simply not within the USA's interests to set the world on fire so that Ukraine can keep their Eastern lands. Ukraine punched way above their weight class and as a result kept Putin from taking control of their Government/whole country - they still maintain their sovereignty which was not Russia's goal. BUT... they no longer have the ability to kick the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine. I don't like it but that is the reality.
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Campus Hero [13336]
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Thanks for that.
Nov 18, 2024, 4:47 PM
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How much do you think the promotion of NATO expansion factored into this war?
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Orange Phenom [14752]
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Paw Master [16196]
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Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
Nov 18, 2024, 5:05 PM
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I'm in total agreement with your assessment. If there is a viable way for Ukraine to prevail and achieve total victory(full control of its borders), it would be instructive to hear Biden or Lloyd Austin explain how this feasible. If it's not, then a negotiated settlement is the only other choice.
To address Birm on several points, the war in Ukraine in no way resembles Afghanistan. The two wars are simply not comparable in the least.
Reagan was stellar as a cold warrior, but he too knew when to fold them or perhaps not.
He sent Marines into an untenable situation in Beirut. He never should have put the Marines in this position. When the Marines were slaughtered, he pulled out and in fact never exacted any retribution on who was probably behind the Marine barracks attack-Iran.
Had Reagan been President, I seriously doubt Putin would have launched an invasion and he certainly wouldn't have said as Biden did, that maybe a limited incursion by Russia was ok.
Being for a negotiated settlement does not make one Pro Russian. I'm not and tabby is not. I detest Putin. There is zero to admire about him. That also does not make one a puss.
Ukraine is still accepting volunteers from the US for those brave souls who possibly think the US or NATO should put in ground troops.
Russia has made more recent advancements in Ukraine than at any time since 2022. We should help Ukraine get the best deal it can get. Outright victory by Russia has not been allowed, nor should it going forward, but outright victory by Ukraine is simply ignoring the reality on the ground.
For the armchair warriors out there, please educate all of us on how victory by Ukraine will be achieved and when.
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Orange Elite [5233]
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Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
Nov 18, 2024, 5:18 PM
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How is Ukraine/Afghanistan not comparable, other than the fact that Ukraine actually has armor an AF, and that Russia does not enjoy air superiority like they did in Afghanistan? Ukraine does not have a Navy, yet they've beaten the $#$t out of the Russian Navy. And how many Russian oil refineries were the Afghans blowing up?😆
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Paw Master [17145]
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Sounds like they dont need our help. War on dude.***
Nov 18, 2024, 5:27 PM
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Clemson Icon [24991]
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Re: Sounds like they dont need our help. War on dude.***
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Nov 18, 2024, 6:02 PM
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Our help is how they pulled off what they have accomplished. Otherwise Russia would already have taken Ukraine.
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Paw Master [17145]
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Wheres the EU? Oh yea, buying oil/gas from Putin.***
Nov 18, 2024, 8:21 PM
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Clemson Icon [24991]
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Re: Wheres the EU? Oh yea, buying oil/gas from Putin.***
Nov 18, 2024, 8:46 PM
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Yep...they need to survive and they are spending billions on the war as well. It's not checkers. It's complicated.
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Paw Warrior [4813]
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My biggest question, if there is a negotiated settlement, is...
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Nov 18, 2024, 5:31 PM
[ in reply to Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end... ] |
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...how long before Russia collects itself and then comes back to finish the job?
I think NATO encroachments PLUS Putin's desire to reclaim Russian landholdings from before the collapse of the USSR are the two factors driving him in this war.
Looking long-term, do you think he would be satisfied with a negotiated settlement with Ukraine if Ukraine continues to pursue NATO membership? (I imagine one of Putin's terms in the negotiation would be to end that NATO bid.)
And looking at another long-term hypothetical (so take it for what it's worth) -- how surprised would you be if Putin came back later and tried again at taking all of Ukraine? There's part of me that thinks he has his eyes on the former Yugoslav countries next.
I would like to see the war come to an end, too -- and my hope is that Ukraine continues to exist as a separate country after that. I'm just trying to think of the next moves that could occur if that settlement were to come.
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Orange Elite [5233]
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Re: My biggest question, if there is a negotiated settlement, is...
Nov 18, 2024, 5:43 PM
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They really are dumb enough to believe Putin will honor any peace agreement.
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Orange Phenom [14752]
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Ending Ukraine's NATO bid will be a non-negotiable Russian requirement for
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Nov 18, 2024, 5:59 PM
[ in reply to My biggest question, if there is a negotiated settlement, is... ] |
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any negotiated settlement and they will get it. Russia has no reason to agree to any settlement (once again - time is on their side) where that is not a concrete requirement.
I just don't buy into the argument that Russia is capable (or will be capable within 10 years due to all the equipment losses they have suffered in this Ukraine fight) of fielding a combat force that can blitzkrieg through Ukraine then start a war with NATO to reacquire some former Soviet Union lands. Such a claim ignores what we saw happen with Russian forces in the Ukraine-Russia war and is simply unrealistic.
Putin couldn't force project well enough to conquer his next door neighbor (Ukraine) where his supply lines were unmolested with a full strength Russian military. To think that Russia is going to be able to implement a more devastating attack against a better NATO force in the next decade as part of some domino like theory (conquer Ukraine in order to attack Poland and the former NATO Soviet States) is sheer neo-con/MIC warmongering fantasy.
IMO the best strategy for the USA is to end this Ukraine-Russia war and ensure that there is some type of trip-wire DMZ in Eastern Ukraine where both sides stay on their side of the zone. If possible work into the plan for there to be some International military force that polices the DMZ to where any any violation of that DMZ is an International issue with automatic sanction consequences.
What the US needs to do is to "wait" Putin out because he ain't a young man (he is 72) and is already past the average Russian male life expectancy (68)... If Putin lives another 10 years it would be a rare thing in Russian society. When Putin dies there may be an opportunity to negotiate with whoever wins the inevitable Russian power struggle for a more sane, less adversarial solution. Hope springs eternal.
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Paw Warrior [4813]
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All fair points.***
Nov 18, 2024, 8:20 PM
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Associate AD [1095]
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Re: Ending Ukraine's NATO bid will be a non-negotiable Russian requirement for
Nov 18, 2024, 9:37 PM
[ in reply to Ending Ukraine's NATO bid will be a non-negotiable Russian requirement for ] |
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I took a geography class at Clemson ca. 1982. The only former SSR you can get to through Ukraine from Russia is Moldova. It wasn't that desirable then, and it still isn't. They would be better off as part of any adjoining nation, even Ukraine.
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CU Medallion [18954]
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The key aspect of the DMZ like plan is what "international force" to police it
Nov 18, 2024, 10:29 PM
[ in reply to Ending Ukraine's NATO bid will be a non-negotiable Russian requirement for ] |
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Putin isn't going to allow european/west to do it so who does he accept?
I agree Russia is too weak to blitz through Ukraine and NATO which is exactly why Ukraine joining NATO is exactly what they should do and Putin thinks will happen if he doesn't take them over now. Time is not on Putin's side and he knows he can't take on NATO as is. Plus any future engagement he might want to pursue needs to include the resources of Ukraine, so he has to have control over it.
I do think the war does not make it another four years, but how it ends is going to be crucial to thinking about what the future will look like.
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Campus Hero [13551]
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Paw Master [16629]
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Can you please explain this comment?***
Nov 18, 2024, 9:06 PM
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Campus Hero [13551]
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After the US-backed coup in Ukraine, several groups of Ukrainians, either
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Nov 18, 2024, 9:34 PM
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with the direct support of the new government or in the least with the passive support of the government started attacking the Russian areas of eastern Ukraine, trying to drive the ethnically Russian people out of the country. The Russian folks fought back, and there was a civil war. In late 2014 a Minsk Agreement was made which called for a cease-fire. Only Ukrainians didn't stop attacking. In 2015 there was a second Minsk agreement aimed at stopping the fighting. That actually held up for a few years, but then Ukraine started attacking again and in 2020 they were even caught using drones to bomb civilians in Donbas. Ultimately the failure of Ukraine to honor the agreements is what caused Russia to come to the defense of the ethnically Russian folks in eastern Ukraine.
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Clemson Icon [24720]
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Everybody understands that. With Trump in the White House and Republicans
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Nov 18, 2024, 5:58 PM
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controlling the purse strings, aid and support for Ukraine will dry up and Ukraine will be negotiating from a position of relative weakness.
Personally, I doubt Putin is eager to negotiate a meaningful peace any time soon given that.
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Orange Phenom [14752]
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Apparently not everyone does understand the Ukraine reality because the
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Nov 18, 2024, 6:03 PM
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current Biden administration has not, and is not, doing anything towards a negotiated settlement. I'm open to any proof of the Biden Admins desire for a negotiated settlement but have seen ZERO myself. Quite the contrary - everything they put forth is geared towards a "Ukraine wins" narrative - though that narrative is woefully at odds with battlefield reality.
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Clemson Icon [24720]
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With Trump and Republicans taking over, I would put the chance of a Putin
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Nov 18, 2024, 6:15 PM
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peace agreement at slightly higher than zero anytime soon.
I think everyone understands this is exactly what Putin was hoping and waiting for.
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Clemson Icon [24991]
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Re: With Trump and Republicans taking over, I would put the chance of a Putin
Nov 18, 2024, 6:24 PM
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It will only take Trump one day to end the war once in office according to Trump. I wonder if he will pull it off.
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National Champion [7763]
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All we can do is hope. The current administration sure is ######## the bed.***
Nov 19, 2024, 9:53 AM
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Valley Legend [12554]
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Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
Nov 18, 2024, 6:43 PM
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ukraine was never going to defeat russia
ukraine will give up land, banned from joining nato and the war will stop
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Ultimate Tiger [37747]
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Been saying this for 2 years. They gonna kill every male***
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Nov 18, 2024, 8:01 PM
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TigerNet Champion [121024]
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wait, they are still fighting?
Nov 18, 2024, 8:09 PM
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Trump said he would end that war within 24 hours of winning the election.
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Paw Master [16629]
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Good thoughts. I believe this war will go down in history as one of the biggest
Nov 18, 2024, 9:33 PM
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Blunders in world history, but I guess we shall see.
I am very pro-Ukraine, pro-US support for Ukraine. They have adopted the mindset that enough is enough and that Russia will not stop. Perhaps you are right that they (Russia) won’t have the manpower to take another swipe at a neighbor…then again, perhaps they won’t have a choice, economically. I’m not sure what they can do if they aren’t at war.
On that note, what are your thoughts on Russia’s stability? Central bank setting the interest rate at 21%, with some expecting it to go to 23% in the December. Mortgages at 28%. Massive, massive inflation. Significant flight of skilled labor on their own. Freight has reduced significantly. Businesses can’t borrow.
I don’t believe the NATO thing was as big of a deal as claimed. As I said before, Finland is a lot closer to many significant cultural and military targets and they were not attacked when they announced they would be joining. Putin thinks that Ukraine belongs to Russia. And I would appreciate your thoughts on a Potential NATO preclusion as part of the settlement. I again don’t see why we would care, aside from the visual of Putin telling Western countries who can join our military alliance. But Ukraine wasn’t about to join NATO, and you don’t have to be in NATO for western nations to support you militarily. So…whatever.
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TigerNet Champion [121024]
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Re: Good thoughts. I believe this war will go down in history as one of the biggest
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Nov 18, 2024, 9:39 PM
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IMHO, that would be the Iraq war. It gauged a hole in our deficit that never stopped bleeding and was fought for the sole purpose of getting Bush re-elected. This country has never fully healed from that, and left us with the NSA, DHS and a Pentagon that can account for its books.
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Paw Master [16629]
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Time will tell. There are many indicators that this war has lead to devastating
Nov 18, 2024, 10:21 PM
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economic and military results for Russia. For a country that was already declining in population, I think (hope?) it spells disaster.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Paw Master [16629]
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The Ruble just went over 101 per dollar.
Nov 19, 2024, 9:43 AM
[ in reply to Good thoughts. I believe this war will go down in history as one of the biggest ] |
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100 had been a threshold that they were trying to keep their currency below for PR reasons. It’s been flittering above 100 for several days now.
Their stock market is down about 38% since the Sabre rattling started at the end of 2021. S&P is up 34% in the same timeframe, for perspective.
God help them is the Saudis start increasing oil production.
And yes, Russia has a lot more people…but they also have a lot more to defend. The largest country in the world. And considerable involvement in Africa and Central Asia. There’s a reason why the bonus to sign a contract with the military is so high now. Plus, Putin is trying now to let the war come home too much to Moscow and St. Petersburg. When the elites start seeing their sons drafted, there will be a lot of angst.
The Bank of China is reportedly blocking yuan-dominated transfers from countries believed to be exporting to Russia.
I guess my point is that I don’t think it’s as simple as “Russia can put last them because they have more people.” And I know the OP made a more nuanced argument than that but the economics of Russia are a key factor.
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Ring of Honor [21613]
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Re: The war in Ukraine needs to come to a negotiated end...
Nov 19, 2024, 4:42 AM
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My whole logic for supporting Ukraine was to deter future Russian aggression. History tells us over and over again you don't want a would-be imperial power getting a head of steam; once they get themselves on a war footing and can start absorbing the population and resources of conquered territories, they become very, very difficult to stop.
That threat has now come and gone. Russia's lost the majority of their artillery and armor now in Ukraine. Even their air force has seen immense losses (and airframe degradation, which is maybe even worse) and Ukraine barely had an air force of their own. By the time this thing winds down the Russians will have likely had anywhere from three-quarters of a million to a million men killed or badly wounded on the battlefield.
You're talking demographics in regards to military reality but there's another reality to consider in demographics too - simple state cohesion. Young people are your future, and demographically speaking, neither Russia nor Ukraine has one. Thanks to the war, Ukraine's already severe demographic crisis is now the worst in Europe...and Russia's isn't much better. Ukraine started the war with 40 million people...between battlefield casualties, plummeting fertility rates, and Ukrainians fleeing the country, that number is down to roughly 30 million.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-population-has-fallen-by-10-million-since-russias-invasion-un-says-2024-10-22/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Between Ukraine and Russia, we're talking countries that likely aren't going to exist in 20 years and probably 10. What we're almost certainly about to start seeing (in much of the world, actually) is the fragmentation and dissolution of states across the globe. The window for Russia to become an imperial power has long-since come and gone; their combat power is largely spent in Ukraine and their own demographic collapse means they'll never be able to rebuild their military. They needed to win early and get a head of steam going...and they didn't.
Neither country will have remotely the money or workforce to rebuild Eastern Ukraine no matter who holds it. It's going to be a wasteland in ten years regardless of who technically "owns" it.
There's no more point to this anymore, for anyone. The damage is done, to both sides. This thing needs to end.
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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On the NATO topic/issue, why do "we" seem...
Nov 19, 2024, 8:28 AM
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to validate the idea that Putin has some kind of legit claim about NATO expansion to Russia's borders?
NATO has never invaded any country. Putin is upset about NATO expansion because it limits his ability to invade other sovereign nations. Full Stop.
I don't really disagree with your post...it's well thought-out. But is there a bigger issue in play here? Will suing for peace now ultimately lead to more war in the future. I get your point about Russia being beaten down too, but I'm worried that that fact might actually lead to more expansion attempts, as opposed to limiting them.
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Ring of Honor [21613]
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Re: On the NATO topic/issue, why do "we" seem...
Nov 19, 2024, 9:49 AM
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You need manpower and industrial capacity to rebuild a military...and Russia no longer has either.
Russia never rebuilt its industrial capacity after the Soviet Union fell. It instead became a producer of raw materials and energy, and its energy sector was rebuilt with Western expertise and Western engineers...who are now all gone. Russia's got a storage-capacity problem going that all but annihilated its oil industry 30 years ago after the Wall fell, and it's happening yet again: all that oil they produce has to go somewhere, and Ukraine's been systemically killing their storage capacity. With nowhere to physically store the oil they produce, Russia's being forced to shut its Siberian oil pumps down...and once that happens, those wellheads then freeze and will have to be re-drilled, which is an expensive and years-long process they don't have the technical expertise to pull off. Western engineers did that for them, in the 2000's and early 2010's. It won't happen a second time.
Gazprom was Russia's leading oil producer, and Putin essentially has long treated it as his personal piggy bank. It's not going well for them now.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-swings-into-69-billion-net-loss-2023-2024-05-02/
The other big problem is population. For whatever reason, the world really hasn't woken up to how severe demographic collapses are around the globe...and Russia's is one of the worst.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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I understand all of that...
Nov 19, 2024, 11:15 AM
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and my point is...could that not also make them desperate and needing/wanting to expand in order to have more industrial power, etc...
I'm not saying that's the case, I just don't think we can dismiss them as not being able to wage war again in the near future.
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Ring of Honor [21613]
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Re: I understand all of that...
Nov 19, 2024, 12:03 PM
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Oh, I totally agree...they'll take anything they think they can, for at least the next decade, anyhow. But where do they go for that industrial capacity? Russia's not remotely in shape to take China and in order to get into Europe's industrial heartland they'd need to get into Western Europe.
I think we both know Donald's going to pull the US out of NATO. So the survival of the Baltic States - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia - is probably going to depend on how tightly NATO-minus-the-USA sticks together. I could absolutely see Russia absorbing those in the medium term if NATO isn't utterly resolute...and when has the EU ever been absolutely resolute about, well, anything?
But past that? I don't see Russia going back for Ukraine Part 3 unless Ukraine just plain crumbles internally...which I suppose could happen, particularly if they don't get NATO membership, but that's another medium-term problem and something not likely to happen in the next year or three. And Poland's a far tougher nut than Ukraine was, with a modernized military that's been thoroughly trained in NATO tactics. Russia's only other European neighbors are Finland - who are armed to the teeth and have built an extensive bunker and fortress network along their border - and a thin strip of land fronting Sweden...who are similarly armed to the teeth with a modern military. And like Finland, they've been preparing for Russia ever since WW2.
And a NATO without America might or might not stick to Article 5 over the Baltic States...but they absolutely would if Russia keeps coming West. And will Putin even keep power once this is over? Even if best-case for Putin now happens and he winds up with a chunk of Ukraine, there's no way he can spin this whole misadventure as anything but an absolute disaster to Russia's elites.
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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Isn't an Act of Congress or super majority in Senate...
Nov 19, 2024, 12:32 PM
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required now to withdraw from NATO?
Can't see either of those things happening.
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Ring of Honor [21613]
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Re: Isn't an Act of Congress or super majority in Senate...
Nov 19, 2024, 12:41 PM
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It's apparently sort of a gray area - there's no explicit language in the Constitution for withdrawing the US from a treaty - and Trump tends to take even semi-gray areas and run with them, and then dare somebody to stop him. (And when they don't, he then goes and crashes through yet another guardrail we then discover was more of a suggestion than a rule if nobody has the balls to enforce it.)
Congress would have to stand up to him, and the precedent ain't great either: when Jimmy Carter pulled the US out of Taiwan's mutual-defense treaty in 1979, the Supreme Court declined to take up the case.
Do you really see a GOP-controlled Congress suddenly growing a spine, or the Supreme Court ruling against Donald even if they did?
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2003
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