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Dynasty Maker [3234]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
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Aug 10, 2024, 7:50 PM
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In Nate Silver's model, she's ahead in Michigan, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. She's within less than 1% in Georgia. Trump still up in North Carolina. This is starting to look like 2020 all over again.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Usual disclaimer: It's very early. Still debates to come. Still time for oodles of surprises that move the needles. But the last 3 weeks have been a rout in favor of the Dems. Essentially, from the moment Joe announced he was out, polls starting moving in favor of Harris. It's a honeymoon period for her. But we haven't even gotten to the Dem Convention, which will give an even larger bump for her.
Tough month for Trump.
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Paw Warrior [4943]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
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Aug 10, 2024, 8:07 PM
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Oh well. Good luck America.
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Solid Orange [1374]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
Aug 10, 2024, 8:22 PM
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"Oh well. Good luck America."
Looks like we're getting it.
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All-Pro [740]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
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Aug 10, 2024, 8:32 PM
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About a month back I put forth that DJT would win five states. Biden was the opponent at that time and my prediction looked doubtful.
It’s now looking much more likely.
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
Aug 10, 2024, 8:39 PM
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Then you’re an idiot. Trump was going to win the popular vote vs Biden. He is still in a great position to win popular vote.
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Tiger Titan [50651]
TigerPulse: 79%
58
Posts: 36963
Joined: 2003
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Trump wont come close to winning the popular vote.
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Aug 10, 2024, 8:42 PM
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I don’t think he will win the electoral college either.
He can’t keep his mouth shut when he needs to, and he can’t run a disciplined campaign. It’s going to cost him in November.
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Trump wont come close to winning the popular vote.
Aug 10, 2024, 8:57 PM
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Ok well the poll averages say differently
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Hall of Famer [8125]
TigerPulse: 100%
43
Posts: 10454
Joined: 2013
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
Aug 10, 2024, 8:38 PM
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I’m so tired of posting all the polling averages. These polling number are nowhere near what they were in 2020. Biden had 5 point leads in most of the swing states. Trump is polling significantly better this time. He lost Georgia by .2%. He’s going to win it this time. He barely lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. 2% or less. His polling numbers were behind Biden by much more than he lost by.
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Tiger Titan [50651]
TigerPulse: 79%
58
Posts: 36963
Joined: 2003
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Kamala will win in November.***
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Aug 10, 2024, 8:40 PM
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Kamala will win in November.***
Aug 10, 2024, 8:47 PM
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Too much can happen between now and the election. The way things stand now Trump would likely win by a solid margin. Check out the video. He predicted the last election correctly with the exception of Georgia. Biden was polling significantly better than the actual margins were on Election Day. The polls always overestimate democrats.
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Game Changer [1869]
TigerPulse: 84%
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Dynasty Maker [3234]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Pfft. Virginia is going to Trump? Very unlikely....
Aug 11, 2024, 8:18 AM
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I watched that video, and the guy is cherry-picking polling and discounting other polling that doesn't fit his narrative. He's using 538's website, and throwing out their results when he feels like it. And some of it is already outdated, as he was pointing to some polls that occurred before Joe stepped aside. I would not be referencing any poll about Harris taken in mid-July, as Joe was still the Dem candidate at the time.
It's going to be a tight race. And I'm not in a position to predict a winner at this point. Neither are you. Recent polling suggests that Harris wiped out the lead that Trump had and then some. August will be rough for Trump. September is important for him and his ability to get elected.
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Paw Master [17114]
TigerPulse: 100%
51
Posts: 17939
Joined: 2015
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Harris will win; and it has nothing to do with Trump.***
Aug 10, 2024, 8:46 PM
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110%er [3878]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Harris will win; and it has nothing to do with Trump.***
Aug 10, 2024, 8:48 PM
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That’s what I’m worried about.
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Paw Warrior [4943]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Orange Immortal [64943]
TigerPulse: 100%
60
Posts: 49098
Joined: 2000
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Trump's response ...
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Aug 10, 2024, 10:44 PM
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"The correct polls show we are up... way up."
"She's a terrible person, and nobody wants what she stands for."
"I talk to people every day, all over this country, and the people everywhere want me and what I will do."
Then if he loses again, he'll claim it was stolen again.
Very frustrating for someone like me who wants a good conservative leader.
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Ring of Honor [21586]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 12468
Joined: 2002
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Re: Trump's response ...
Aug 11, 2024, 7:03 AM
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There isn't a conservative to be seen right now. I keep waiting for the alleged "conservatives" to notice that.
Populists aren't conservatives. At all. Actually MAGA is going the complete other direction. There's a reason the Teamsters' union president, Sean O'Brien, was a headliner at the RNC just a few weeks ago.
Every few million years or so, the magnetic poles of the Earth shift, and North becomes South, and vice versa...but it doesn't happen overnight, and in the thousand years or so in which the poles are shifting the Earth's magnetic field is weak and radiation bombards the Earth. This causes massive mutations in plant and animal species, and at the end of the process you see changed species completely different than anything that ever came before.
You see the same thing in politics every seventy or ninety years or so. We're in one of those high-mutation phases right now, and in high-mutation phases, conservatism tends to go right out the window.
But it does settle back down. Hopefully it happens soon; the last nine years or so have been exhausting.
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Game Changer [1869]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Re: Polling Update: Good week for Harris...
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Aug 11, 2024, 4:06 AM
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"Nate Silver/NYT" lol
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