Re: Nice theory. Lets see it turn into reality.***

Commercial research: How the US Auto Ind can Increase Mkt Share in Japan

How US Automakers can increase their access to Japan

This is a paper (see bottom of this post for the link) by a student (Gordon Struck - August 2023) that contains some informative aspects about the NTBs in Japan that essentially block out the ability of American automakers to export vehicles to Japan.

Boiling through all of the useful information (including history), the decades long problem for America in working with the protectionist Japanese govt has been that Japan had no motivation to work vigorously to fix the trade imbalance problem.

Blunt instrument as it may be, Trump’s tariff centric trade negotiations has totally changed the paradigm. Instead of passive indifference (endless repetitions of polite … meaningless & unproductive … talking) to American-initiated trade talks, the Trump tariff threat has completely changed the paradigm. Japan, now that the veil has been removed from their bluster re ‘Trump tariffs not working,’ we now know that Japan is bleeding ~$20 Bn / month in profits.

Japan. Is. Now. Motivated.

Who knows? Maybe little will come if it. Maybe, at least with Global Technology Leader American Auto Manufacturer Tesla, the Trump / Japan / Auto trade-tariff-NTB negotiations will lead to something meaningful.

No other WH administration has accomplished sheeet. Only the TDSers continue to preach their flat-earth approach to trade.

Here’s the linked paper.

https://www.middlebury.edu/institute/sites/default/files/2023-08/G%20Struck%20WP-Auto%20Parts%20to%20Japan%202023.pdf

RememberTheDanny

Clemson Conqueror [11850]

TigerPulse: 97%

Posts: 14518

Joined: 2021

Jul 3, 2025, 1:28 PM

It won’t be easy, but America needed to start sometime. Or should I say, start again sometime. The past 30+ years of doing the same thing each year sure worked beautifully.

There will be a new trade deal with Japan that will be incrementally favorable to us, but nothing … at least with respect to cars … that will meaningfully open up Japan’s markets to American cars over the remainder of Trump’s term.

Ironically, given the absurd public rift between Trump and Musk, the most likely first ‘American car’ trade deal will probably involve Tesla. Because of Tesla, America is ahead of the world (technically and [arguably] aesthetically) in the EV space. Japan’s NTBs (Non Tariff Barriers) are not as deeply entrenched with EVs as they are with ICEs. Furthermore, Japan’s national direction to shift to EVs by 2035 has not, to my understanding, changed.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if Trump admin, fully committed to position the American auto industry to work with (I.e., coerce) Japan to be cooperative as for reducing NTBs before the End of Days, end up subsidizing Tesla again. Our govt will likely need to help Tesla endure what will be extraordinary costs to Tesla as they ‘blaze the trail’ in overcoming the labyrinth of Japanese NTBs one-by-one; Tesla would endure years of non-revenue-generating expenses in order to get over that hurdle. Tesla will lose not-insignificant money between the date when their ‘overcome NTBs’ efforts start and when they finish.

(*). Tesla’s teased indications that they might build a Giga factory in Japan (to start before 2030?) would also give them an up close and personal vantage point for dealing with Japan’s bureaucracy. (Yes, and I haven’t forgotten that Trump’s tariff program is designed to get Japan to buy American made cars, as opposed to having America make cars in Japan.)

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Commercial research: How the US Auto Ind can Increase Mkt Share in Japan

Re: Commercial research: How the US Auto Ind can Increase Mkt Share in Japan

Re: Commercial research: How the US Auto Ind can Increase Mkt Share in Japan

Nice theory. Lets see it turn into reality.***