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Legend [17599]
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Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
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Apr 24, 2023, 10:16 PM
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The subject is back in the air. In the end, for the ACC to break up, it comes down to financials and some additional cloaking and hubris. But primarily, it boils down to future revenue streams for teams attractive enough to be desired by other conferences and alternate networks. A few thoughts:
1. Money. Self-explanatory and has been well documented on TNet. Football brings in 85-92% of athletic revenue for conferences & universities. The opportunity cost of competing against universities from the B1G and SEC (incl. SCU) earning $100M+ annually vs. ACC distributions of $35-40M will not stand. The rebuild of Clemson (town & university) following 2016 & 2018 natl championships, and the same happening now at UGA shows the power & income streams of winning. Soon all the teams in the B1G & SEC -- even Ms State & Rutgers -- will experience that cash flow annually. BOT's, chancellors, administrators, professors & townspeople like the trickle down.
2. Academics. In the university world, academia and motives naturally matter. The glitter of increasing athletic revenue cannot stand alone. There has to be an academic motive for a university and the professors of a university to accept & support a move. And buy-in from the new conference. President Clements' recent announcement of "Clemson Elevate" states clearly "We will double research by 2035, working in collaboration with government and industry to advance scientific research and discovery." This announcement sets the stage and is the academic gateway to realignment.
3. University & Conference Branding & Value. It's four-lane interstate highway with multiple interchanges. Football matters. Academics (incl. research) matter. Branding matters. Conference exit and entry criteria matters. Both the B1G and the SEC harbor illusions of grandeur on a national stage that they are acting upon and turning into realities. In addition to football, Clemson brings strong land grant and engineering institution appeal & credentials to any non-Ivy conference.
4. ACC GOR. Nine months ago The News & Observer’s C.L. Brown wrote on realignment and what it would take for ACC teams to get out and legally challenge the grant of rights: "The number is six. There’s talk around the ACC that there doesn’t have to be a major upheaval for the league’s demise. If just six current members decide they want out and legally challenge the league’s grant of rights, the rest of the conference — and the deal that tethers it together — could come crumbling apart." Public universities UVA, Clemson, FSU, Ga Tech, UNC, Pitt, NCSU & Va Tech and private universities Miami, Duke, and possibly Notre Dame bring football & academic value at varying levels. But their numbers are more than six. All (except maybe ND) will experience FOMO (fear of missing out) and will seek increased revenue.
5. Other. The arguments of SEC schools & rivals such as SCU and UF barring the FSU's and Clemson's from entering the SEC are weak. See Tx A&M and Texas. In the end, the conference and the networks make a financial decision.
6. How It Happens. My take is initially the B1G attempts to communicate discreetly with UVA, UNC, Miami & Ga Tech deal makers. Discretion will be short lived. The SEC will engage with desired schools. These activities will be a prologue to the SEC and B1G Football exiting the NCAA in tandem over the next decade. There will be negotiations between schools, conferences & networks and no doubt some litigation and threats of litigation. I agree with those who foresee UVA, UNC and possibly Ga Tech, Miami or Duke entering the B1G. And Clemson & FSU entering the SEC with possibly Ga Tech and/or Miami. NCSU, Va Tech and possibly Pitt should not be discounted as wild cards - the B1G, SEC or Big 12 may scoop up the balance. Wake, BC, Syracuse and Louisville have less options.
Hoax or reality? Thoughts are welcome ...
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Team Captain [496]
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Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
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Apr 24, 2023, 11:29 PM
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I see The Big Ten wanting Boston College
I also see Virginia and North Carolina staying together … or trying/wanting to … which is as you presented.
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All-TigerNet [13844]
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The B1G may want a CLemson, GT for the ATL market
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Apr 24, 2023, 11:49 PM
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FSU to kinda string the corridor and Miami just makes sense for the melting pot of the area.
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Letterman [278]
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Re: The B1G may want a CLemson, GT for the ATL market
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:55 AM
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I agree with this and hope it comes true. I addition the B1G is said to desire NC and UVA. Any mention of Duke, BC, Syracuse, or Pitt is poppycock.
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110%er [8008]
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Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
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Apr 24, 2023, 11:45 PM
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I can’t really disagree with anything you posted. At times it seems hard to fathom so much could line up just right to make such moves reality. However, at the same time just think how much about college football has changed in the last couple of years.
What I also find interesting is what those in the industry have said, either directly or indirectly.
Dabo told us where this is headed.
Jim Donnan, former UGA head coach and current SEC insider said on
7-5-22… “Miami, Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina are going to be in the SEC pretty quick,”. Look it up on YouTube if you want to hear the full conversation.
Miami AD Dan Radikivich said on March 2, 2023… “At the end of the day, we need to try. And if, if we can't get things done, then, at least we can look around and say, 'All right, we attempted to get something done, we weren't able to do it. And then, if down the road, schools do choose to leave, it should not be a surprise."
And of course FSU AD has been very vocal and direct, to the point of their BOT questioning what it would take to leave the ACC.
Isn’t it interesting Donnan stated what he did 9 months ago about FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami going to the SEC, and now the most noise about being unhappy with the ACC just happens to be coming from those four Universities?
I think a major shake up is coming and it’s further along than most fans know.
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Orange Blooded [2565]
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Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
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Apr 24, 2023, 11:55 PM
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Nice review of the issue with some specific commentary. I believe you may be mistaken about Pitt. It is a Catholic Univ. & private, not public.
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110%er [7488]
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Pitt is public***
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Apr 25, 2023, 12:44 AM
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CU Guru [1019]
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Re: Pitt is public***
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:44 PM
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Pitt is no more Catholic than Bob Jones.
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Legend [17599]
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Thanks but ...
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Apr 25, 2023, 5:51 PM
[ in reply to Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution ] |
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Double checked Pitt Wiki ... The University of Pittsburgh (also known as Pitt) is a public state-related research university in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The university is composed of 17 undergraduate and graduate schools and colleges at its urban Pittsburgh campus, home to the university's central administration and around 28,000 undergraduate and graduate students.
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110%er [5024]
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Athletic Dir [865]
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Yeah, no way. ESPN/Disney do not want to leave the college
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Apr 25, 2023, 7:10 AM
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sports marketplace. IF they were to do this, they'd be telling the public and investors they were leaving. They cant retreat and go to lesser tier sports for filling slots.
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Letterman [278]
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Re: I suspect that ESPN is looking for exit criteria
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Apr 25, 2023, 9:01 AM
[ in reply to I suspect that ESPN is looking for exit criteria ] |
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ESPN is not part of the B1G’s tv deal. It is with CBS, NBC, and FOX. ESPeNis went all in on the SEC.
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110%er [5024]
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Re: I suspect that ESPN is looking for exit criteria
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Apr 25, 2023, 9:22 AM
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Thanks for the correction on the B1G.
The Fox mess could cause trouble for the B1G deal. Murdoch has already sold Fox Studios to Disney and 2 of his children want him to sell Fox News because they don't want to associate with a conservative media organization. If Mordoch decides to honor his 2 children's request and there is no way to sell Fox News without the balance of Murdoch's holdings being associated with the Fox News aura, it could spell bad news for Fox Broadcasting.
Murdoch has an enormous problem on his hands.... and it could spill over into Fox Broadcasting and the B1G contract - like having to sell Fox Broadcasting. CBS would be one potential buyer, but they would perhaps want to renegotiate the B1G contract.
Graham Neff told me about 6 months ago that the real reason we were somewhat stuck with our ESPN deal was not so much due to the GOR agreement (which is a good thing in an ACC socialistic manner), but rather the culprit was ESPN because they got a good deal from the ACC and didn't want to renegotiate. With the trouble ESPN and Disney are now in, I would not be surprised if ESPN would not even consider paying any more money to the SEC, no matter how many new schools join.
So, if ESPN would rather try to negotiate the SEC contract downward rather than upward to consider the addition of new schools, why would the SEC want to add any new schools which would at best dilute their present per-school income? The answer to me is that they wouldn't.
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All-In [25476]
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Re: I suspect that ESPN is looking for exit criteria
Apr 25, 2023, 10:33 PM
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Over the air conventional media is dying. Streaming services are the futre. There will be several buyers for college football at a billion dollar price tag. Google is one possibility. Don't count out apple tv, or even Elon Musk at twitter. Even Fox and NBC are setting up digital outlets and Fox is really trying to go full time digital. There's not a bigger sport in America than college football. The golden goose is not going to quit laying them golden eggs.
The ACC is a dead conference walking. I give it less than 6 months to continue to exist. The top FB schools in the ACC are not going to sit by and give away a billion dollars over the next 13 years waiting for the GOR to expire. That is crazy.
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All-TigerNet [10908]
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110%er [9028]
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Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
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Apr 25, 2023, 5:36 AM
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I'm thinking that if the powers that be in the $EC want Clemson to come in, SC will make noise about blocking but won't. Some back room conversations and $$ will dissuade the coots from blocking us out in the end.
Just trying to think like a coot. It hurts.
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All-In [25476]
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Re: Financials & Exit Criteria for ACC Dissolution
Apr 25, 2023, 10:35 PM
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There is no way the SEC commish is going to let the coots block anyone. They can't even block us on the gridiron.
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All-In [38592]
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cloaking and hubris
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Apr 25, 2023, 7:35 AM
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I can't think or write like yall, but I suspect shenanigans are going on ~
Clemson (thanks to football) is in a good position.
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Varsity [235]
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Orange Blooded [4441]
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Excellent, we’ll thought out post.***
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:06 AM
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Orange Blooded [4441]
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*Well***
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:07 AM
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Hall of Famer [22281]
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We'll all agree it was a well thought out post.***
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:44 AM
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UUUUUUUUUUU
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Hall of Famer [22281]
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My guess.
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Apr 25, 2023, 8:43 AM
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First of all, I confess that my first guess was wrong. After UCLA and USC announced they were heading to the B1G I speculated that as soon as the football season (the 2022 season) was over that the SEC would be proactive and invite FSU, Clemson and maybe more teams, into the SEC. I predicted the announcement would come no later than March 31, 2023.
I was wrong. It appears the SEC is content to blend Texas and Oklahoma into the conference and not try to take the lead in the race to 20 member conferences.
So now my guess is this is how it will happen.
1. Big 12 will end up taking 4 schools from PAC 12. The announcement will come when it is clear the PAC 12 can get no acceptable TV contract.
2. The B1G will follow suit and take Washington and Oregon into the conference.
3. The ACC will dissolve.
4. FSU and Clemson will get an invite to SEC.
As for the other PAC 12 and ACC teams, I have no idea who will end up where. I suspect most will end up in one of the three "big" conferences. But, I don't even have a guess as to which conference each will end up in.
But, it seems to me that Step 1 has to happen first. Looks like B1G and SEC are willing to stand pat until they see what's happening with PAC 12.
I was wrong on my first guess. I'm probably wrong on this one.
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Scout Team [183]
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Re: My guess.
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Apr 25, 2023, 10:44 AM
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Might sound crazy but wonder if ESPN would consider giving the ACC more money to keep it intact. They may be better off. It would be interesting to see the profit margin on their ACC contract.
If the ACC explodes then ESPN could lose a lot of revenue (maybe profit) to Fox and other networks possibly. It is similar to when Walmart meets with a vendor and says cut your price or we won't distribute your product in our stores. A smaller profit is better than no profit.
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All-TigerNet [10908]
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Re: My guess.
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Apr 25, 2023, 1:45 PM
[ in reply to My guess. ] |
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I don't think you're so wrong. The SEC would take Clemson and FSU, it's that the timing is a little off resolving GOR. Realignment will be scrambling like a NASCAR pit during a green flag stop once the GOR issue is resolved or ACC gutted.
However, IMO, there's more future money potential (even beyond the B1G current deal) with the B1G since their contracts have more network diversification. I'm waiting for NBC to wake up and realize there are more $s to be made through a college conference affiliation rather than just buying in on one team, i.e. ND.
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