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Replies: 26
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Legend [19576]
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CFP Chances
Nov 9, 2022, 11:09 AM
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It's actually not as slim as most seem to indicate. Let's break it down.
TCU is bound to lose a game or two, likely to Texas/baylor or possibly both. They are going to be a 1 loss big12 champ or maybe not big 12 champ at all. LSU, assuming they don't lose again, will lose at the sec ship, OSU/MICH will lose, Oregon/UCLA/USC will lose. The only guarantees, as I see it, are
UGA
OSU/Mich winner
After that (assuming clemson runs the table, TCU has at least 1 loss but wins the big 12, Oregon runs the table, OSU beats mich and stays undefeated, LSU goes unscathed until atlanta and UGA stays undefeated) you will have:
UGA
OSU
then pick 2 from
12-1 TCU big 12 champ
12-1 Oregon pac 12 champ
12-1 Clemson acc champ
11-1 Mich
11-1 Tenn
10-2 Bama
11-2 UCLA/USC
Which 2 get the nod? If TCU drops 2 games (very possible with texas, iowa state and baylor left) then the big 12 is out all together. At that point, would the committee give the nod to an 11-1 team that didn't win their division over a 1 loss power 5 conf champ? That has yet to ever happen in the CFP era.
If we do manage to find a way in I fully expect to be totally embarrassed in the semi unless drastic changes are made to this offense between now and then.
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All-In [26479]
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A 1 loss team always has a shot at the end***
Nov 9, 2022, 11:12 AM
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Orange Blooded [2823]
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Re: A 1 loss team always has a shot at the end***
Nov 9, 2022, 11:20 AM
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History has shown us during the CFP era that there’s a significant gap between the top two and all the others. This has lead to many semifinal blowouts. If there’s chaos for the Big12 and Pac12 then Clemson sneaking into the top 4 and becoming just another blowout victim on New Years will follow the typical playoff scenario.
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CU Guru [1367]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 9, 2022, 11:21 AM
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We’d have to win by dominant fashion to get consideration.
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Orange Blooded [2403]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 9, 2022, 10:08 PM
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I agree. If there was a hint of a chance, you better blow people apart the rest of the way so voters can't miss you!!!!!
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Starter [378]
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What about a 12-1 UNC ACC Champ?
Nov 9, 2022, 11:25 AM
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i think we'll be a dog in the ACCCG
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Hall of Famer [24178]
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Tell 'em u7c coot. No one knows losing better than you.
Nov 9, 2022, 11:26 AM
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30-0
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Legend [19576]
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Re: What about a 12-1 UNC ACC Champ?
Nov 9, 2022, 11:34 AM
[ in reply to What about a 12-1 UNC ACC Champ? ] |
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If this offense isn't turned around I'm afraid that will very much be the case. a 12-1 UNC ACC champ would be very much in the conversation.
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CU Guru [1950]
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I think Tennessee gets in with 1-loss
Nov 9, 2022, 12:57 PM
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Assuming UGA wins the SEC, we should get UGA, OSU or UM, and Tennessee as 3 of the teams. Tennessee's wins against Alabama and LSU and their loss @ UGA is going to be too impressive to leave them out.
The 4th spot will go to TCU if they win out, but if not, it will be up for grabs.
Among 1-loss conference champions, I'd say the PAC-12 champion has the best shot, followed by Clemson, and then TCU.
I think we need TCU to lose at least once and then the PAC-12 champion to finish with 2-losses for us to have a chance (assuming no other major upsets along the way).
(I will also note that South Carolina somehow beating Tennessee would actually be incredible for our Playoff chances).
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Legend [19576]
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Re: I think Tennessee gets in with 1-loss
Nov 9, 2022, 1:03 PM
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CFP has never put a 1 loss team that didn't win their conference in over a 1 loss conference champion so it'll be interesting.
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All-TigerNet [10343]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 9, 2022, 2:38 PM
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Unfortunately this team does not have what it takes to win out or win if they get in the playoff. It is what it is. If they open up the offense and get some tempo then yes we may be better on offense. If the offense can score this automatically helps our defense. As you can see a lot of ifs here.
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CU Guru [1418]
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We better just worry about Louisville and nothing else
Nov 9, 2022, 3:23 PM
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At this point.
I think part of the reason we got embarrassed last Saturday was because of the distraction of the playoffs.
Our team looks like a mental basket case right now and we just need a win to restore some confidence.
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Legend [16227]
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aren't zero heading into Week 11.
Nov 9, 2022, 3:25 PM
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TCB and let's see how it shakes out.
Go Tigers! Beat the Cards!
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 9, 2022, 6:58 PM
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CUA,
Given your scenario, I would say that Tenn, Oregon, TCU, and Michigan would be ranked ahead of us.
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Legend [19576]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 10, 2022, 9:51 AM
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That's the interesting part. The committee has never given the nod to a 1 loss team that didn't win their conference over a 1 loss conference champion. Is this the first year we see that happen?
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Orange Blooded [2533]
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stop already
Nov 9, 2022, 7:09 PM
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please progress on through the phase of "disbelief/denial" to "acceptance"
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Heisman Winner [139883]
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"You can't let the hurt be greater than the hope."***
Nov 10, 2022, 8:24 AM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Only one of the reasons I missed you far more than bob...***
Nov 10, 2022, 8:25 AM
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Legend [19576]
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Am I seeing a ghost?***
Nov 10, 2022, 9:52 AM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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No, B-Meist missed me and honestly, who could blame him.
Nov 10, 2022, 9:59 AM
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Good to see an old face, even if it's yours.
Haha, how are you, CUATL? Hope all's well in your nape of the wood.
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Legend [19576]
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Joined: 7/25/07
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Re: No, B-Meist missed me and honestly, who could blame him.
Nov 10, 2022, 10:01 AM
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I feel the same way every morning looking in the mirror.
Doing Good DSP, how was Jamaica?
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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Glad the world is treating you as well as it should...
Nov 10, 2022, 10:10 AM
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Jamdown was fantastic! Scantily clad wimmins frolicking on far away beaches, while the tantalizing scents of rum & coconut butter danced upon the warm island breezes.
It was good to be me...
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Varsity [246]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 10, 2022, 8:22 AM
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Id like to see us make it too. But in reality we would get destroyed. All we run on offense is stupid screen passes and the defense has been a complete bust. I would like to say we could compete, but I would put in a two or three loss team in over us. There are a lot of teams behind Clemson that are just better, even with two or three losses, Such as Alabama, LSU, Texas. North Carolina is also better. We just are not good this season. If you're not good at this point in the season, it is not changing. It's bad when you have a hard time scoring, and can't stop the run vs a very mediocre Notre Dame.
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CU Guru [1681]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 10, 2022, 8:49 AM
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You simply control what you can control. If you are 12-1 acc champ, there’s a possibility for cfp, but requires help now that we lost to ND.
Now the “ifs and buts”:
If ND continues to win, they are likely a top 15 team so our loss isn’t “bad”
If UNC wins out, the acc championship is two top ten teams.
If USC beats ucla and Oregon to win pac12, they will have a second loss to ND per bullet 1.
If FSU continues to win, they are top 15.
NCSt still probably top 25 w loss to UNC.
If Texas wins out, they’ll beat TCU twice and be a 3 loss big 12 winner
So we’ll all have a Merry Christmas (potentially)
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Legend [19576]
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^^This
Nov 10, 2022, 9:54 AM
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A whole lot of If's but very legitimate possibilities.
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CU Guru [1540]
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Re: CFP Chances
Nov 10, 2022, 9:54 AM
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In this scenario, Tenn and Oregon will get the nod because their only losses were to the #1 team.
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Orange Blooded [2563]
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Re: CFP Chances are good , if.... We hang 50+
Nov 10, 2022, 10:27 AM
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on each of the remaining teams..... And get 5-6 sacks per game to terrorize their offenses.
Other than that..... it ain't happening.
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