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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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Can y'all believe how fake these BLS jobs numbers are now??...
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May 2, 2025, 1:51 PM
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For the past few yrs, I've seen some posters on here post ad nauseum on how the BLS data was political and how the initial jobs estimates get revised down in the following 2 months most months...and how that was done on purpose to boost up the Biden admin's economic numbers.
I explained how the jobs numbers survey worked more times than I should have and these posters never budged in their opinions that the BLS was political.
Well, 100 days into the Trump admin, and Trump must have successfully replaced all of the career economists with MAGA folks because, guess what....the February and March preliminary jobs numbers were both revised down today.
So, MAGA, I ask you...are these jobs numbers and unemployment rate still BS?!?
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000, from +228,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
Good news is that the preliminary April jobs came in at +177k, beating estimates. Unemployment stayed at 4.2%. That's going to make it pretty tough for the feds to lower the fed funds rate, I think.
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All-In [10259]
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Fake as in
May 2, 2025, 2:17 PM
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when the revised job number come out the market will take back 5% of the gains on my losses to date in Trump's term?
Hope not
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National Champion [7663]
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Re: Can y'all believe how fake these BLS jobs numbers are now??...
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May 2, 2025, 2:43 PM
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Not sure about the kooky rant, but if a govt supplied number comes in off by over reporting the jobs number (many times by a lot) month after month not sure why it's a problem to be skeptical of the methodology or even agenda behind the consistently wrong numbers. Is it rank incompetence? Sure could be. Or is it something else? Who knows since any time it gets mentioned as being possibly problematic the morons try to shout anyone down who dares notice the pattern.
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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How was that a kooky rant...and you're just the type I'm referring to...
May 2, 2025, 2:58 PM
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The number is revised for the 2 months after issuing it because it is a preliminary number and surveys continue to come in for 2 months AND the figures are seasonal, so the seasonal adjustment variables also change. That's why sometimes the numbers are revised upwards too.
How about this?
It's not problematic, it's not political, and it's not incompetence. Have you considered that as a possible answer?
At the very least, can you admit the claim that the BLS measures are political are utter BS?
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Offensive Star [327]
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Re: How was that a kooky rant...and you're just the type I'm referring to...
May 2, 2025, 4:19 PM
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Could care less about U3, the real numbers to watch are U6.
Same as inflation, strip out housing and energy and it really is a bogus number. Outside of food that is like 2 of the top 3 necessary items.
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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U-6 dropped in Mar and Apr***
May 2, 2025, 7:09 PM
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Associate AD [1095]
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Re: How was that a kooky rant...and you're just the type I'm referring to...
May 3, 2025, 12:36 AM
[ in reply to How was that a kooky rant...and you're just the type I'm referring to... ] |
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He just notices when the estimates get revised down. I can remember plenty of times the estimates were revised upward. Al Gore talked about expanding access to the internet in the 90s to basically everybody. Who could have predicted it would be such a bad thing. Better to have a Tim McVeigh get radicalized by other soldiers and niche conspiracy theorists and white supremacists who mainly operated on SW radio than have millions of his ilk get radicalized while pooping.
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Clemson Conqueror [11494]
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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You mean explaining how it works? Let me guess...
May 2, 2025, 9:53 PM
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You have as much knowledge on this as you do inflation calculations and CPI...LOL.
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Top TigerNet [30175]
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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So they're bs because they come from gov...
May 2, 2025, 7:04 PM
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That chart doesn't also come from the gov stats?
And the labeling on the right doesn't seem to match the text claim in the middle.
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Paw Master [17145]
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Keep trying to convince yourself of the collapse***
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May 2, 2025, 4:38 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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Try reading it again...real hard this time...
May 2, 2025, 6:56 PM
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I'm not the one not believing the BLS figures and I'm happy the jobs number was better than the forecast.
So, as usual, what the eff are you talking about?
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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Singular sample size, not a yearlong pattern. You know the difference.***
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May 2, 2025, 8:49 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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What is a singular sample size? The jobs number was good.***
May 2, 2025, 9:37 PM
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Clemson Conqueror [11494]
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Re: Singular sample size, not a yearlong pattern. You know the difference.***
May 2, 2025, 9:56 PM
[ in reply to Singular sample size, not a yearlong pattern. You know the difference.*** ] |
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He doesn’t understand methodology, algorithm, or statistics. Therefore, he doesn’t understand the points that you, NC Tiger, and various others have tried to impress upon him 8n the past.
This isn’t his fault. His employers (whoever that might be) have apparently trained him to recite pro-government bureaucracy talking points, which he does with admirable confidence. You know, ‘we must defend this bureaucracy’ type stuff.
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Ultimate Tiger [34919]
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I've forgotten more about this stuff than you'll ever know...
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May 2, 2025, 10:02 PM
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What point...you like to type paragraphs of nonsense, so explain what point I'm missing.
Also...the OP I made was calling out the idiots that claimed that BLS is political (I'm sure you're one of them) and pointing out that the numbers have been revised down as their finalized so far under Trump too. So explain the politics of that.
My employers are a BoD in Germany...I don't think we've ever once discussed US Govt talking points and I'm about the farthest thing from "pro-government" you'll find.
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Clemson Icon [27824]
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That Bret Baier interview of the CEO at NuCor is what I liked seeing. Good signs
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May 2, 2025, 10:58 PM
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There's major push of your industry right up the gut of the SE as I'm sure you know.
This is the kind of thing i wanted to see. Now beef up the port in Charleston on behalf of SC.
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All-In [10259]
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Re: That Bret Baier interview of the CEO at NuCor is what I liked seeing. Good signs
May 3, 2025, 12:29 AM
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Because there are tons of ships just dying to bring over tariffed cargo to US ports, especially in a small market port like Charleston
Try again
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Game Changer [1923]
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Clemson Sports Icon [52679]
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BLS jobs???
May 2, 2025, 9:30 PM
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boy i read that the wrong way.
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Replies: 20
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