Call it a hunch on my part but most of what you are seeing when

It will tighten as we get closer to the election as it always does but as of now:

Biden electoral votes:
- 183 considered safe (poll lead is large enough there is no doubt)
- 29 likely (poll lead is large enough that there is little doubt)
- 56 Leaning (poll lead is larger than margin of error but not be enough to “call” it)
- Total: 268

Trump electoral votes:
- 77 considered safe
- 48 likely
- 44 leaning
- Total: 169

There are 101 that are a toss-up.

Currently, Trump has to get all 101 toss up and flip at least 1 Biden leaning states. Any one of those toss up states he loses makes it that much more difficult for him to win. We are still two months out so a lot can change but it will be fascinating to watch between now and then.

quozzel

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Re: I predict Trump is within 3-4 points by end of

Aug 28, 2020, 8:12 AM

I don't know where his new support comes from.

I was sitting there shaking my head at the RNC. Clearly Trump is aware he's got a problem with suburban women and black people because he went super-heavy on featuring both, but a little PR event with fireworks that was watched only by the RNC's core voters anyway - just as nobody but die-hard Dems bothered to tune in to their own convention, these things were bad to watch - isn't going to change any hearts or minds at this point.

Black people aren't going to vote for Trump in any real numbers. Look no further than the street of your largest city to see how they feel...and prepare to duck and cover. Pretending otherwise is, well...hopeful.

Suburban women aren't going to vote for Trump precisely for the same reason mom gets irritated when the kids fight: because they are fighting. Trump isn't going to win the suburban women back as long as he persists with the divisive overheated rhetoric that continues to incite and divide...and he hasn't changed that an iota.

Trump is going to Trump...and Trump hasn't been able to significantly exceed 40-42% approval aside from a brief blip at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis (that he immediately threw away with denials and pointless confrontations between American agencies and states that badly needed to be cooperating).

Where is he going to get his converts again? He isn't doing anything different, and two-months-to-go is not the time to be finally trying some lukewarm outreach to voters you've spent your entire term purposefully alienating.

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I predict Trump is within 3-4 points by end of

Re: I predict Trump is within 3-4 points by end of

Re: I predict Trump is within 3-4 points by end of

When Don Lemon sees the damage to the Biden campaign...

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