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Replies: 24
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Oculus Spirit [42988]
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Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
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Oct 16, 2024, 1:10 PM
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All right boys, let's all make our predictions for Nov. 5, both vote % and electoral college outcome. Closest gets the satisfaction of predicted the best of the worst.
Jimmy will start it out.
Harris: 53% (286)
Donny: 44% (252)
GA, FL, and OH go to Donald. PA, NC, VA, and MI go to Harris.
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Hall of Famer [8140]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 16, 2024, 1:14 PM
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Standout [241]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 16, 2024, 4:32 PM
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Thanks for the map. Its validating my concerns.
I think the map is pretty accurate. My take though is that President Trump wins Michigan or Georgia, or possibly both, (271 to 267) and wins the Election. So that is my change to the Map. The cost of living, the war issue, and independents sitting it out helps his cause in Michigan. But it will be very close. I think like less than 10k votes. The race will also be close in Georgia and PA.
I think Harris wins the popular vote like 52/51-48/49. I think the voter participation will be down about 5-10% from the last election.
Lots of independents and moderate democrats/ republicans (mainly minority men) will sit this election out. And that favors the former president. its not what I want to happen. Then again, its hard for me to really be upbeat and say "I am excited about a Harris Presidency". Stinks all the way around.
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Hall of Famer [8140]
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I don't see how Harris can win MI or WI.
Oct 16, 2024, 6:59 PM
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So I was being generous and saying sure, she'll win PA and GA. Now she has to win NC or both AZ and NV.
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Ring of Honor [21658]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 10:58 AM
[ in reply to Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread ] |
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I would be very surprised if Donald Trump wins Michigan. And I live in Michigan.
The only reason I'd say "maybe there's something I don't know" is because I've only been here three months and I live in Detroit now and Detroit leans heavily D...but it's hard to overstate how unpopular Donald Trump is here. And the chicks - especially the younger ones but plenty of Gen X women too - absolutely loathe him with a hatred that's pretty visceral.
I mean, the dude showed up here a couple days ago saying Detroit was basically a third-world nation. It did not go over well, even among Republicans...especially since Detroit residents have worked very hard to turn Detroit around. He did the same thing with Milwaukee right before the GOP convention, and they haven't forgotten either.
Those are votes it's hard to get back once you throw them away. And he does that a lot.
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Paw Master [17249]
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Kamala won GA yesterday. So much for Jim Crowe 2.0.***
Oct 16, 2024, 5:00 PM
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All-In [10535]
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Kamala POTUS
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Oct 16, 2024, 5:30 PM
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Wins PA, MI, and WI
Trump wins both NC and GA
GOP holds House and wins Senate
Only one major piece of legislation passes in the 1st hundred days, likely related to tax breaks for working families. Then it's back to the gridlock that is great for this country
Lots of screaming on this message board
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Game Changer [1941]
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Re: Kamala POTUS
Oct 16, 2024, 9:17 PM
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I’ll go with that. I think she splits Ga and NC wins 1 close and lose 1 closer
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CU Medallion [20804]
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Agree with your breakdown and legislation***
Oct 16, 2024, 9:31 PM
[ in reply to Kamala POTUS ] |
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Ultimate Tiger [33074]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
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Oct 16, 2024, 6:05 PM
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I really have no dog in this fight, and I could see it going either way. But, the Jan 6 Independent No Vote ends up putting Harris on top 277 to 261 electoral, with Harris winning the popular vote by about 5 percent.
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Tiger Titan [48748]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
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Oct 16, 2024, 9:57 PM
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Close win for Harris; GOP keeps Congress. IMO, this is also our safest option.
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Ultimate Tiger [33074]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 10:30 AM
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A legit 5 states that Desantis would have won that I think Trump will lose.
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Tiger Titan [48748]
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Agreed. He or Haley would be running away with this.***
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Oct 17, 2024, 10:31 AM
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Ultimate Tiger [33074]
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110%er [3891]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
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Oct 17, 2024, 10:37 AM
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Idk about the percentages but my EC prediction is Trump-312 Harris-226.
Trump win AZ, NV, NC, GA, WI, MI, and PA.
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110%er [3891]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
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Nov 7, 2024, 5:31 PM
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Looks like I was completely correct 😂😂😂😂
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Oculus Spirit [42988]
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And apparently my vibes are about as effective as dowsing for water.
Nov 7, 2024, 7:32 PM
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IN THE DESERT!
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Ring of Honor [21658]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 10:46 AM
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Ohio is not a swing state, though Sherrod Brown is likely going to keep his Senate seat. Trump wins Ohio, 99% chance there. I just lived in Ohio for more than three years; I don't think it's changed much in the three months I've been gone from it. It had about an R+8 to R+10 lean, only slightly less red than South Carolina, though popular D politicians like Sherrod Brown and Marcy Kaptur can invert that, which isn't a thing you see in the ruby-red states, either.
I think Kamala wins the rest going away and wins a fairly one-sided blowout. There's a whole lot of GOP poll manipulation going on right now and it seems coordinated...and it wouldn't be happening if Donald was doing well. More than half the polls that have been dumped in the last couple of weeks are conservative-leaning and their results and methodology are...strange. I don't buy them.
I think we may have hit that stage in the "conservative" media ecosystem where they've started to believe their own bullsh!t, and it all just sort of reinforces itself. That mass of early voting (which was centered in Atlanta) is not an encouraging sign for the Pubs.
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110%er [3891]
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Ring of Honor [21658]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 11:22 AM
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No, they do not. Polls miss for a variety of reasons but it usually happens when a group of voters that don't historically vote "activate" for a specific candidate and the polls don't catch it. It happened in 2016 and 2020 for Donald because the MAGA coalition that propped him up had largely sat out the prior six elections...but it went the complete other direction in the mid-terms in '22, when the "Red Wave" that was supposed to happen ended up completely fizzling.
I think it's happening for Kamala again in '24 and pretty bigly this time around, and the difference is in Gen Z, especially the Gen Z women. I'd even go so far as to say I think it could be far worse than people realize, because I think the support for Kamala among women - especially women of color - is far bigger than the polls are currently catching, and I think support for Donald except all but his hardest-core supporters has waned, though his supporters are not the sort to ever admit it...and the first hint we'll really have is when we see turnout start looking surprisingly light in rural areas.
Donald has this fundamental problem: he's presenting America as this broken, hopeless place, while at the same time insisting he's the only one who can fix it. But by now America - and even his supporters - have long-since seen that the reality of Donald Trump is far, far less than what he claims, and that Donald has absolutely nothing in the way of answers. He breaks stuff, and that's all he knows how to do.
His act and his message were something new in 2016. Both are old and tired now. As is Donald himself. Those half-empty auditoriums with crowds that bail on him early are a glaring red-flag sign for anyone that cares to stick their finger up and see which way the wind is actually blowing.
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110%er [3891]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 11:54 AM
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It’s a fact that the polls greatly underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020. Hillary was supposed to win Wisconsin by 11 points and lost it. Hillary and Biden were supposed to win NC and lost. Go research the 2016 and 2020 polling data compared to what actually happened on that website I provided. Trump outperformed the polls in every battleground state by multiple points.
Maybe you’re right. Maybe it will be different this go round. When left leaning pollsters have Trump leading in most battleground states, that is a bad sign for Harris.
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Oculus Spirit [39224]
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National Champion [7723]
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Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread
Oct 17, 2024, 11:02 AM
[ in reply to Re: Official Nov. 5 Prediction Thread ] |
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I don't trust any of the polls as far as being of any predictive value but Kamala isn't suddenly doing interviews on Fox because her team feels confident they're leading everywhere that matters.
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Oculus Spirit [42988]
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bump.***
Nov 4, 2024, 1:19 PM
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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Replies: 24
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