Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Georgia Tech projections

Ajou Ajou scored his first career touchdown last year in Atlanta against the Yellow Jackets.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Sep 15 14:31:44 GMT-04:00 2021

Clemson's reputation built under Dabo Swinney precedes it into a season typically, and that can leave the folks in Vegas a little bit off in their assessment of the Tigers early in the year.

Of course, Clemson also can tend to start a bit slow too, and that shows in the data against the spread, where they are 0-2 to start the 2021 campaign.

The loss to Georgia was the first in the Tigers’ Playoff era (2015-on) over the first month of the season, but even over a highly-successful run since 2018, they dropped to 4-10 against the spread in September (plus late August) games. Conversely in that 2018-on timespan, Clemson is 15-7 against the spread in regular-season games after September, also with a single straight-up loss (47-40 in double OT at Notre Dame in 2020).

Of note this week (3:30 p.m. in Memorial Stadium/ABC), however, is that the Tigers have beaten the number against Georgia Tech each of the last three seasons, including clearing the spread by a mile with a 73-7 2020 win in Atlanta.

Here’s how the two 1-1 teams shape up early in the season:

Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 4 overall): 11 | 6 | 61

GT SP+ ranks (No. 66 overall): 77 | 54 | 85

CU FPI ranks (No. 4 overall): 83 | 4 | 13

GT FPI ranks (No. 70 overall): 77 | 51 | 119

(Metric definitions at the bottom)

You can see the difference in the two ESPN metrics on the Clemson offensive ranking, with the SP+ still holding on to preseason projections at this point (No. 11 ranking) and the FPI more judging the effort so far (No. 83).

Georgia Tech’s problem in year three under Geoff Collins is the two analytics align on a below-average Yellow Jackets offense (both assess them at No. 77) and judge it to be average (just outside the top-50 on defense) or below average elsewhere (85th or worse on special teams).

Georgia Tech dropped its home opener to Northern Illinois (22-21), which turned around and gave up 50 at home to Wyoming in a loss last week.

In ACC action, Collins is 3-6 in home games with highlights last season coming against lower-tier conference teams in Louisville (46-27 W) and Duke (56-33 W) and double-digit defeats in the rest (73-7 Clemson; 31-13 Notre Dame; 34-20 Pitt). On the road, they did clip Florida State in the opener last year (16-13) and beat Miami in overtime in 2019, but the losses have been lopsided against mediocre opponents (two-TD average margin).

Now a couple seasons removed from the triple-option-centric days, Georgia Tech does rank fifth in the ACC and 33rd overall according to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.

On to the odds and projections...

Odds (via VegasInsider as of 9/15)

Clemson -28.5; 52.5 over/under.

Metrics outlook

SP+ projection: Clemson by 23.8

ESPN FPI: 95.3% Clemson (Tigers by 21.5)

FEI: 98.1% Clemson (Tigers by 28.1)

TeamRankings ($; numberFire pick in link too): Clemson by 26.7

numberFire: Clemson by 36.8

It can’t get much worse for Georgia Tech than last year’s effort against the Tigers, where Clemson led 52-7 at the half and third-string QB Hunter Helms tacked on a couple TD passes in the second half to a 66-point margin (punter Will Spiers also attempted three passes).

Collins has upped the talent level and you’d think they'll be more competitive, as the majority of the metrics believe. The question is just how much Clemson’s offense kicks it into gear and how much Swinney balances getting some more experience down the roster before hitting the road for three of the next four and four of the next six contests.

Prediction

Clemson 45, Georgia Tech 13

(SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that judges team efficiency for a projection.)