Clemson vs. Florida State Prediction: The numbers don't lie

Clemson takes on FSU at 3:30 pm (ESPN).

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Fri Oct 29 12:32:03 GMT-04:00 2021

For the first time in a long time, the Clemson football program is struggling. The players are playing hard, they’re fighting, but good things aren’t happening. This is a team that needs for something good to happen heading into the final month of the season, and they get a chance Saturday afternoon when the Florida State Seminoles come calling.

After an open date and two road games, Clemson will return to Death Valley for the first time in four weeks when the Tigers host the Seminoles on Saturday, Oct. 30. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.

Clemson returns to Death Valley riding the nation's longest home winning streak, dating to 2016. Clemson's current 31-game streak is presently tied with 1890-93 Yale, 1990-95 Texas A&M, and 2001-05 Boise State (31 each) for the 18th-longest home winning streak in FBS history. That streak includes two home victories against Florida State, a 31-14 win in 2017 and a 45-14 win in 2019.

CLEMSON (4-3, 3-2 ACC) vs. FLORIDA STATE (3-4, 2-2 ACC)

TELEVISION: ESPN (Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III, Quint Kessenich)
RADIO: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
SATELLITE RADIO: Sirius 133, XM 193, Internet/App 955

CLEMSON/FLORIDA STATE SERIES HISTORY

OVERALL: Clemson trails series, 13-20
HOME: Series is tied, 8-8
ROAD: Clemson trails series, 5-12
NEUTRAL: N/A
LAST MEETING: Oct. 12, 2019 (45-14, W)
STREAK: Clemson, Won 5

NOTABLE

*From 2015-19, Clemson became the first school to defeat Florida State in ACC play in five consecutive games, a streak Clemson will attempt to push to six straight games with a win on Saturday. Miami (Fla.) previously defeated Florida State in six straight games from 2000- 04, including a bowl game, but only the final game of that streak came during Miami’s ACC membership.

*This season, Clemson's defense has been led by James Skalski and Baylon Spector, its pair of veteran linebackers tabbed by Dabo Swinney as the "Bruise Brothers." After postgame review Saturday night, scorers at Pitt officially credited Skalski with a career-high 18 tackles in the contest, tied for the third-most by any FBS player in a game this season.

*Clemson is attempting to win its 32nd consecutive home game to extend its school record for both the longest home winning streak and longest home unbeaten streak in school history (as well as extend the nation’s longest active home winning streak). Of the 132 players on Clemson’s 2021 roster, 127 have never experienced a home loss in their Clemson careers. Five sixth-year “super seniors” on Clemson’s 2021 roster were on the 2016 team that recovered from a home loss to Pitt by winning the national championship that season.

*Clemson and Florida State are meeting in 2021 after having represented the conference in the ACC Championship Game every year since 2009, Dabo Swinney’s first full season as the Tigers’ head coach. Clemson represented the division (or earned a divisionless berth in 2020) in the championship game eight times in those 12 years, with Florida State doing so in the other four.

*The winner of this annual game has won the ACC Championship in nine of the last 10 years, with the lone exception in that span coming in 2020 after cancellation of the Clemson/Florida State game. –

*Clemson is attempting to win six consecutive games against Florida State for the first time in series history. Clemson, which was already the first school to defeat Florida State in ACC play in five consecutive games, attempting to push that winning streak to six straight games. (Note: Miami previously defeated Florida State in six straight games from 2000-04, including a bowl game, but only the final game of that streak came during Miami’s ACC membership.)

RECLAIMING THE VALLEY

*With a win on Saturday, Clemson can hold the advantage in its all-time home record against Florida State for the first time in series history. Despite a number of memorably close contests, Florida State won its first seven games at Death Valley from 1975-2001. Clemson earned its first home win in the series in 2003, when Clemson Head Coach Tommy Bowden defeated his father, Bobby, for the first time and did so on his father’s birthday. That win kickstarted a five-game home winning streak for the Tigers against the Seminoles prior to a Florida State victory in 2013.

Clemson has since won the last three meetings in Death Valley and has accrued wins in eight of the teams’ last nine meetings in Memorial Stadium to even the series in the facility at 8-8. Clemson has faced 60 different programs at Death Valley since the facility opened in 1942. With a win Saturday, Florida State would be the 47th opponent against whom Clemson would hold a winning record in Memorial Stadium.

Eight programs other than Florida State presently have .500 records against Clemson in Death Valley, and only five programs hold winning records against Clemson at the site (Georgia, Miami (Fla.), Alabama, George Washington and Marshall).

WHAT WE WANT TO SEE THIS WEEK

*Will Shipley to break a long run. Shipley returned to action last week against Pitt and carried the ball 10 times for 52 yards. Shipley appeared close to breaking a long run on a few different plays, but it seemed like someone either made a shoestring tackle or the turf monster tripped him up. And that long pass over the middle that he dropped? We would like to see him get a second chance against FSU.

Speaking of the running backs, more run game: Kobe Pace (out for Saturday in COVID protocol) is actually averaging 5.54 yards per carry, and Phil Mafah is averaging 5.10 yards per carry, both higher than Shipley’s 4.87 yards per carry. Someone jokingly told me a few weeks ago that with Clemson’s struggles in the passing game maybe the Tigers should just go to the triple option. While that is, of course, not feasible, I would love to see more of the run game, with a little creativity thrown in.

*The defense to not get worn out: Clemson has always prided itself on tempo and wanting to run close to 80 plays per game, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The offense is averaging a paltry 64 plays per game, “good” for 114th in the nation. As a result of the low play number and an inability to convert third downs (just 37.89 percent), the defense has had to be on the field. A lot. Just a few years ago the Tiger defense was on the field for just 64 plays per game. This year is a different story – Clemson is 115th nationally in opponents' plays per game at 77.8. When the other team is getting 14 more plays, that makes a difference in the fourth quarter, and we saw it last week when Pitt was able to run out the clock.

*Second half points by the offense: Clemson is averaging just six second-half points per game against FBS series teams. That is 124th out of 130 teams. The Tigers have started cold and gotten colder. Here is another stat that maybe you’ve never heard of – yards per point. Clemson is having to gain 19.4 yards for every single point scored this season. So, in order to score the six points for a touchdown, the offense has to gain 116.4 yards. That’s 119th nationally. In each of the last two seasons, Clemson was top ten in that category at 12.1 yards per point and 11.9 yards per point.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

I picked the Tigers to lose last week for the first time in a long time. There just wasn’t a good feeling heading into that game, and the numbers above tell part of the story of why. Add in the fact that Florida State is playing better (and beat UNC and Syracuse), and I don’t get what Vegas is thinking with the 10-point spread.

But the offense gets EJ Williams and Joseph Ngata and Hunter Rayburn back this week, and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei looked better last week after he was replaced by Taisun Phommachanh in the second half. And, as it has at times this season, looked better when it was running tempo. Could this be the game the offense puts it all together?

That’s not likely to happen, as we know. But it will be better and there might even be a few new wrinkles this week. But the difference-maker will be the defense. This defense has been good against everybody this season, except for the second half against Pitt, and it has held some pretty good offenses in check. Florida State won’t make the plays it made over other defenses – all bad – in winning three games in a row. This will be another slugfest, and the Tigers at home are hard to beat in a slugfest.

FINAL SCORE: CLEMSON 20, FLORIDA STATE 13

More TigerNet picks

Mickey Plyler - The Roar 105.5 morning show host - 27-14 Clemson
Nikki Hood - Staff writer - 28-10 Clemson
Brandon Rink - Associate editor - 24-17 Clemson
Tony Crumpton - Associate editor - 28-13 Clemson
Zachary Wagner - Intern - 27-10 Clemson
Jake Pierce - Recruiting reporter - Clemson 23-14
Pigskin Prophet - 27-16 Clemson
Ryan Kantor - Contributing Writer - Clemson 24-14

PREDICTION TRACKER

Game	Actual	David Hood	Plyler	Nikki Hood	Rink	Crumpton	Wagner	Pierce	Prophet	Kantor
Georgia	10-3 UGA	27-20 CU	27-23 CU	24-17 CU	27-23 CU	28-24 CU	28-17 CU	31-20 CU	23-17 CU	-
SC State	49-3 CU	55-3 CU	54-0 CU	56-7 CU	61-7 CU	49-7 CU	55-10 CU	45-0 CU	45-0 CU	-
GT	14-8 CU	41-13 CU	51-10 CU	45-10 CU	45-13 CU	38-7 CU	45-7 CU	38-13 CU	48-10 CU	31-3 CU
NCST	27-21 2OT NCST	23-20 CU	27-13 CU	17-7 CU	24-17 CU	24-9 CU	24-3 CU	28-17 CU	24-16 CU	24-6 CU
BC	19-13 CU	24-20 CU	24-13 CU	24-13 CU	27-17 CU	24-9 CU	24-21 CU	24-20 CU	23-16 CU	23-21 BC
Syracuse	17-14 CU	31-20 CU	31-17 CU	38-14 CU	26-16 CU	27-13 CU	24-13 CU	27-13 CU	30-17 CU	23-13 CU
Pittsburgh	27-17 Pitt	27-23 Pitt	23-21 CU	24-17 Pitt	24-23 Pitt	21-20 Pitt	24-21 CU	31-27 CU	24-23 CU	21-19 Pitt
Points	-	5	6	9	5	7	4	4	4	7

* Points: 3 pts for best correct prediction of the week (tiebreaker is Clemson score), 2 pts for picking score exactly, 1 pt for picking the correct winner