Clemson moves up ESPN power rankings, Playoff chances increase

Clemson likely needs some more strong performances down the stretch to woo the CFP committee.

by TigerNet Staff - Sun Nov 13 12:14:02 GMT-04:00 2022

Any week with a win this time of the year is crucial and the Tigers moved to 9-1 overall and 7-0 in ACC action on Saturday with a 31-16 win over Louisville.

The Tigers moved up four spots in ESPN's Power Rankings this week to No. 9.

"The Tigers bounced back from their loss to Notre Dame with a 31-16 win over Louisville thanks to a dominant performance on the ground, with 248 yards and three rushing touchdowns -- one each from Phil Mafah, Will Shipley and DJ Uiagalelei," ESPN's Andrea Adelson wrote. "Though Clemson turned the ball over three times against the aggressive Louisville defense, the Cards were unable to score points off any of the miscues as the Tigers defense played a much better game than a week ago. Clemson has now won 39 consecutive home games, tied with Oklahoma (2005-11) for the second-longest streak in the FBS since 1990."

Two-loss Alabama still sits a spot ahead at No. 8, with Georgia up top then Ohio State, Michigan and TCU.

ESPN listed Clemson in a group of eight teams that still have a Playoff chance, although with a heavy dose of skepticism from ESPN CFP writer Heather Dinich ($).

"Clemson is hanging on by a thread after getting beaten soundly at Notre Dame a week ago, and its wins against Syracuse and Wake Forest no longer look as impressive after those opponents dropped out of the CFP top 25 last week," Dinich said. "Clemson's victory against NC State also took a hit on Saturday after the Wolfpack lost at home to Boston College, so it's possible three-loss NC State drops out of the CFP top 25 this week. If that happens, Clemson's only wins against ranked opponents would be versus No. 23 Florida State (if the three-loss Noles finish in the CFP top 25) and possibly North Carolina in the ACC title game. Clemson will have finished the regular season with three straight home games against unranked opponents, while TCU ends with the most difficult slate in the country (at Texas, at Baylor, home against Iowa State). Oregon also will have had more opportunities to impress the selection committee. In addition to Clemson's weak résumé, the Tigers haven't looked like a top-four team this fall. They've had nine turnovers in the past three games."

That said, FiveThirtyEight, within the ESPN family of sites, increased Clemson's fifth-best Playoff odds to 44% -- and the model projects an 81% shot if they go 12-1. Playing out a scenario where Georgia, Ohio State and TCU finish unbeaten, the model has a three-team race for the final spot with Clemson having a 46% chance next to a one-loss Tennessee (27%) and one-loss Pac-12 champ Southern Cal (23%). Clemson's odds increase to over 60 percent (62%) if Michigan emerges as the undefeated Big Ten champ. Any scenario while going 12-1 with a TCU loss then also jumps the odds over 70%.