Advanced Outlook: No. 5 Clemson-No. 14 Syracuse projections

DJ Uiagelelei's improved impact on a game could be the difference in a more comfortable margin of victory.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Oct 19 10:47:00 GMT-04:00 2022

Clemson and Syracuse square off Saturday in Death Valley as two of just nine unbeaten teams left at the FBS level – and the ACC’s last remaining – through seven full weeks of action.

Their paths to those respective records couldn’t have been much different.

Dabo Swinney’s Tigers (7-0) wrapped up their 4-0 record in conference play away from home last Saturday with an uneven-at-times performance in a 34-28 win at Florida State.

On the other hand, Syracuse (6-0) topped an injury-hampered No. 15 NC State team last week, 24-9, in a fifth home game of the season already.

Per ESPN’s SP+, the Orange are ranked 87th in strength of schedule – 114th with their Football Power Index measure, while Clemson’s is rated 33rd by TeamRankings and 63rd by FPI.

With some adjustments for those schedules so far, here’s the picture of the teams in the three phases of the game:

Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (15): 25 | 19 | 60

SU SP+ ranks (38): 56 | 30 | 38

CU FPI ranks (7): 15 | 24 | 25

SU FPI ranks (24): 30 | 37 | 43

CU FEI ranks (11): 30 | 11 | | 9

SU FEI ranks (29): 28 | 39 | 15

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Clemson's overall efficiency rank dropped in all three metrics above after Saturday in Tallahassee, ranging from No. 7 (FPI) to No. 15 (SP+). ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote about how metrics are looking at the Tigers right now when assessing Clemson’s place among the unbeatens.

“Middle eight perfection aside, Clemson doesn't really have any particularly elite traits,” said Connelly. “The Tigers' offense has rebounded nicely from last season's collapse, but they're 25th in offensive SP+ and not, like, fifth. Meanwhile, their defense is still good but only 19th.

“They're close-game masters, however -- 2-0 in one-score finishes this season, 31-7 since 2012 -- and a lot of it comes down to the proverbial ‘little things.’ The Tigers score touchdowns on 74% of their red zone trips (18th in FBS) and allow TDs on only 50% (24th). They create more turnover opportunities (and, therefore, turnovers) and force more three-and-outs than opponents do, and they reap the field-position rewards (15th in average starting field position). They average 6.4 yards to go on third downs (16th), and opponents are at 8.1 (24th). They rig the game in their favor and wait you out.”

Connelly assessed Syracuse as well.

“I grant that this is a weird strength, but go with me on this one: The Orange were projected 64th in SP+ this season but have overachieved SP+ projections in five of six games. The offense ranks 17th in average points per drive, and the defense ranks 10th in average points allowed per drive,” Connelly said. “We don't yet know their ceiling midway through the season. They've been good at pretty much everything.

“The run defense isn't good enough. Syracuse ranks 95th in rushing success rate allowed this season and 99th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and the Orange haven't faced anyone who can actually run yet. But in their next four games, they face Clemson's Will Shipley, Notre Dame's Audric Estime, Pitt's Israel Abanikanda, and Florida State's Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson. The Cuse pass defense is stellar, but the Orange might be struggling to force teams to pass in the near future.”

Swinney has lauded Syracuse’s O-line as a veteran group this week and it rates well in the metrics with top-30 marks in passing down line yards^ (7th), standard down line yards (25th), opportunity rate* (16th) and overall adjusted line yards (27th), while more mediocre to poor in power success rate# and sack rate (87th; 6.9%).

Clemson’s D-line has underperformed while dealing with some attrition, with the top marks coming in standard down line yards (15th) and stuff rate (runs contained to the line of scrimmage and back; 31st), but more lackluster rankings in average line yards (54th), power success rate (55th), passing down line yards (63rd), passing downs sack rate (71st), standard downs sack rate (74th), overall sack rate (86th) and opportunity rate (101st).

With the playmakers Syracuse’s offense has, this shapes up to be a key matchup at the line of scrimmage regarding how much Clemson’s talented front can disrupt the Orange.

(Per Football Outsiders: ^ The line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8. Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages. * The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job. # Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.)

Three Syracuse players to watch

1. QB Garrett Shrader - Shrader is graded 14th-best nationally in Pro Football Focus’ marks for QBs (min. 80 dropbacks) with an 88.4 grade (85.5). He’s made marked improvements season-to-season vaulting from a 54.4 grade as a passer last year to 81.8 this year with jumps in completion percentage from 52.3% to 69.5% and yards per attempt (6.1 to 9.4). He already has more touchdown passes in 190 dropbacks (12) than he did in 308 dropbacks last season (9). The fourth-year junior is completing over 50% of his passes while under pressure (54.1%/8 YPA), after hitting only 36.5% of those throws at 4.6 yards per attempt last year. Forming a 1-2 punch with All-American candidate running back Sean Tucker, Shrader graded higher as a rusher last year (87.3) but he’s still averaging 5.5 yards per carry (taking out sacks) with five TDs.

2. WR Oronde Gadsden - The 6-foot-5 target Gadsden’s 85.4 PFF grade ranks 10th nationally among all receivers (min. 15 targets) with 31 catches in 37 targets his way and five touchdowns. He has lined up in the slot primarily (76.6%) and has one drop all season.

3. LB Mikel Jones - Jones, who held a Clemson offer during the recruiting process, leads Syracuse starters in grades with pass rush (91), tackling (90.1) and rush defense (81.9) over 321 snaps. He’s totaled six QB hurries, two sacks and a forced fumble, as well as 27 tackles with only one missed tackle attempt.

Odds

Clemson -13.5; 49 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 31-22 (70% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 83.5% Clemson projection

TeamRankings*: 31-18 Clemson

FEI: Clemson 31-24 (67% Clemson projection)

?WEEK 8 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS

SATURDAY MORNING ?
Buy me a beer:?https://t.co/jBOZ2vloV3

SYRACUSE @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/ZPxgqvYpt1
— parker (@statsowar) October 18, 2022

*In the above link as well.

Analysis: Syracuse has covered the spread against Clemson with one outright win in four of the last five meetings. Three of those games have been decided by four points or less despite Clemson being favored by double-digits (and oftentimes more than three touchdowns) in each meeting.

The CFBGraphs projection is the lone metric above to take Clemson covering the spread, despite some pretty similar rankings efficiency-wise outside of the Syracuse issues in run defense already referenced. The balance for the Orange will be loading up to stop Shipley and company versus what an improved Clemson passing attack could do this season compared to last year against them (DJ Uiagalelei averaged 5.3 yards per attempt with a 42.4 QBR and 1.7 yards per carry taking out sacks in the 17-14 win at Syracuse last year/Uiagalelei averaging 7.8 YPA with a 76.5 QBR and 4.9 yards per carry this season taking out sacks).

Syracuse is a well-coached team that tends to give Clemson its best shot and carries all kinds of confidence going into Saturday. It meets a Tigers team that’s had its moments but is looking to put together that four-quarter, complementary effort, and it feels like they are due for a pretty strong effort in all three phases Saturday to notch that two-touchdown spread and a little more. Pick: -13.5 Clemson.

Remaining schedule power rankings

1. Syracuse - The Orange can be credited for taking advantage of a favorable early part of the schedule to clinch a bowl trip, but the biggest test is to come this week in Death Valley.

2. Louisville - Louisville is set to return dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham before a big stretch of three home games before they head to Clemson in mid-November.

3. South Carolina - South Carolina is the highest-rated team left on Clemson’s schedule according to the SP+ metric (No. 33), and it has a chance to prove that right on the field with a very beatable Texas A&M team coming to town this weekend.

4. Notre Dame - Without such stats readily available, I gotta think Notre Dame is the only (or one of a very few) team(s) to lose twice at home as a double-digit favorite this season, after a dreadful 16-14 defeat to Stanford over the weekend (Per Fighting Irish Wire, Notre Dame hadn’t lost any game as a double-digit favorite since 2016 going into this season).

5. Miami - Miami joins Old Dominion among the teams not as bad as Virginia Tech this season after a 20-14 win at Lane Stadium last week.