»
Topic: IBD/TIPP Poll down to Biden +3 nationally
Replies: 15   Last Post: Oct 21, 2020 9:44 PM by: spooneye®
[ General Boards - Politics & Religion ]
Start New Topic
Replies: 15  

IBD/TIPP Poll down to Biden +3 nationally


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 10:24 AM
    Reply

in a 4-way race and Biden +2 head-to-head. As I’ve said before, this has historically been one of the most accurate polls. In 2016, they had HRC +1 just before the election. They were as high as Biden +8 just a couple of months ago.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Battlegrounds are also extremely tight with Trump doing the same or better than 2016 in all states but AZ, GA, NH, IA, OH, and NV. Trump still leads in OH and all are easily within reach except for NH. Comparison is at the bottom of this page:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

It’s gonna come down to the wire and I doubt we’ll know a winner for almost a week.

2020 orange level member

Races naturally tighten closer to election day

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2020 10:26 AM
    Reply

I think the race is closer than polls let on.

But overall polling shows a clear biden lead well outside the margin of error.

We shall see.

I believe that if polls are off by more than 5% each election year, that company, site whatever should be forced out of business.

2020 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg


I agree


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 10:44 AM
    Reply

I usually just look at trends in polls and a few specific polls, especially as it gets closer to the election. Some of the polls are consistently bad and shouldn’t even be considered anymore.

Here’s a good write up on the IBD/TIPP poll and all of the different things they looked at. I think most of what they say seems pretty accurate and likely. I’d still rather be in Biden’s position polling-wise but it’s very tight.

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs-trump-poll-donald-trump-new-high-in-tight-race-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

2020 orange level member

Re: Races naturally tighten closer to election day

[3]
Posted: Oct 21, 2020 12:12 PM
    Reply

I think the opposite.

If there's a polling error this year, I think it's actually going to go the other way. I think there's even more hidden Trump hate out there than people realize...and I also think turnout is likely to be staggering, which is never, ever good for a GOP candidate. There's another factor in play too - Donald made such a big hairy deal over early voting and absentee voting, most of his supporters are planning on voting election day itself...which means, the long lines and people giving up in frustration and people not showing up is likely to be felt disproportionately by the Republicans this election. The GOP is usually the party of voter suppression, but the Donald, with his unerring ability to eff stuff up, might have already successfully managed to suppress the GOP vote this time around.

I think Trump might be headed for a worse humiliation than he took when he tried to sue the NFL.


Polling averages are more reliable than a single poll.

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2020 1:09 PM
    Reply

And the polling averages have Biden up about 10 points. Also, individual state polling is good for Biden.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Better put the Campaign Champaign on ice!!


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 1:22 PM
    Reply

might even have that bottle saved from 4 years ago, right?

badge-donor-05yr.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-conservativealex.jpg


Absolutely!


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 1:29 PM
    Reply

I don't like drinking warm champagne.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***

[2]
Posted: Oct 21, 2020 2:13 PM
    Reply



2020 purple level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

If you see everything as liberal and conservative teams, then You Are What's Wrong With America #YAWWWA


and that one has consistently been close

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2020 3:08 PM
    Reply

But Joe has preached the Scranton language for a long, long time. Seems that would give him an edge there

badge-donor-05yr.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-conservativealex.jpg


Re: and that one has consistently been close


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 6:51 PM
    Reply

https://youtu.be/kUsF9xmvpOM

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg


^^^^This^^^^***


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 6:32 PM
    Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg

^^^^This^^^^***


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 6:32 PM
    Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg

^^^^This^^^^***


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 6:32 PM
    Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Real Clear Politics is considered


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 7:16 PM
    Reply

by most to be the most reliable source for polling data. They average all of the polls. It was actually founded many years ago by two right leaning guys. It shows Biden up by 7.6, but it was a couple of points higher just a week or so ago. The Florida numbers have been interesting to watch. They had been trending in trumps favor with Biden up less than a point a few days ago. But now he’s up by I think 1.7.

I do think the polls will continue to tighten, but I don’t agree with the comparisons to 2016 at this time. I think many of these polls were embarrassed that they were off. To be fair, they weren’t that far off on the national numbers, but they were way off on battleground states. So I’ve read a few articles where the pollsters have made a point to reach out to uneducated white more this cycle. That is what they really missed back in 16. Also, Hillary was much more hated than Biden is, and Trump is much more hated now than he was four years ago.

Tomorrow night in my opinion is trumps last chance. I think the muted thing may work out to trumps advantage. He needs to let Biden talk more so he can stumble.


Re: Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 7:50 PM
    Reply

And with the recent SCOTUS ruling allowing PA ballots to be accepted three days after election day in PA, I would be laser focused on how the postal service is being managed there that week.

2020 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***


Posted: Oct 21, 2020 9:44 PM
    Reply

That's a huge deal.

2020 purple level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

If you see everything as liberal and conservative teams, then You Are What's Wrong With America #YAWWWA


Replies: 15  
[ General Boards - Politics & Religion ]
Start New Topic
313 people have read this post