Replies: 15
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Rock Defender [54]
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IBD/TIPP Poll down to Biden +3 nationally
Oct 21, 2020, 10:24 AM
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All-In [46869]
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Races naturally tighten closer to election day
Oct 21, 2020, 10:26 AM
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I think the race is closer than polls let on.
But overall polling shows a clear biden lead well outside the margin of error.
We shall see.
I believe that if polls are off by more than 5% each election year, that company, site whatever should be forced out of business.
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Rock Defender [54]
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I agree
Oct 21, 2020, 10:44 AM
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Hall of Famer [20547]
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Re: Races naturally tighten closer to election day
Oct 21, 2020, 12:12 PM
[ in reply to Races naturally tighten closer to election day ] |
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I think the opposite.
If there's a polling error this year, I think it's actually going to go the other way. I think there's even more hidden Trump hate out there than people realize...and I also think turnout is likely to be staggering, which is never, ever good for a GOP candidate. There's another factor in play too - Donald made such a big hairy deal over early voting and absentee voting, most of his supporters are planning on voting election day itself...which means, the long lines and people giving up in frustration and people not showing up is likely to be felt disproportionately by the Republicans this election. The GOP is usually the party of voter suppression, but the Donald, with his unerring ability to eff stuff up, might have already successfully managed to suppress the GOP vote this time around.
I think Trump might be headed for a worse humiliation than he took when he tried to sue the NFL.
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Hall of Famer [22403]
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Polling averages are more reliable than a single poll.
Oct 21, 2020, 1:09 PM
[ in reply to Races naturally tighten closer to election day ] |
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And the polling averages have Biden up about 10 points. Also, individual state polling is good for Biden.
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All-In [47813]
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Better put the Campaign Champaign on ice!!
Oct 21, 2020, 1:22 PM
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might even have that bottle saved from 4 years ago, right?
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Hall of Famer [22403]
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Absolutely!
Oct 21, 2020, 1:29 PM
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I don't like drinking warm champagne.
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All-In [34119]
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Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***
Oct 21, 2020, 2:13 PM
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All-In [47813]
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and that one has consistently been close
Oct 21, 2020, 3:08 PM
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But Joe has preached the Scranton language for a long, long time. Seems that would give him an edge there
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Lot o points [156066]
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Legend [17327]
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Legend [17327]
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Legend [17327]
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Team Captain [499]
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Real Clear Politics is considered
Oct 21, 2020, 7:16 PM
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by most to be the most reliable source for polling data. They average all of the polls. It was actually founded many years ago by two right leaning guys. It shows Biden up by 7.6, but it was a couple of points higher just a week or so ago. The Florida numbers have been interesting to watch. They had been trending in trumps favor with Biden up less than a point a few days ago. But now he’s up by I think 1.7.
I do think the polls will continue to tighten, but I don’t agree with the comparisons to 2016 at this time. I think many of these polls were embarrassed that they were off. To be fair, they weren’t that far off on the national numbers, but they were way off on battleground states. So I’ve read a few articles where the pollsters have made a point to reach out to uneducated white more this cycle. That is what they really missed back in 16. Also, Hillary was much more hated than Biden is, and Trump is much more hated now than he was four years ago.
Tomorrow night in my opinion is trumps last chance. I think the muted thing may work out to trumps advantage. He needs to let Biden talk more so he can stumble.
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Legend [16264]
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Re: Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***
Oct 21, 2020, 7:50 PM
[ in reply to Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.*** ] |
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And with the recent SCOTUS ruling allowing PA ballots to be accepted three days after election day in PA, I would be laser focused on how the postal service is being managed there that week.
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All-In [34119]
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Re: Whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.***
Oct 21, 2020, 9:44 PM
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That's a huge deal.
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