Playoff Watch: Showdown weekend can shake up Clemson CFP road

A win over FSU doesn't move the needle much for Clemson's Playoff projection, where all signs point to a potential ACC title game.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Fri Nov 10 15:05:21 GMT-04:00 2017

Three weeks left in the regular season to go, Clemson is found in most Playoff predictions, and projection models back those picks up.

ESPN's FiveThirtyEight gives Clemson the best chance of any CFP contender to win out (45 percent), followed by Notre Dame (40), Washington (34), Oklahoma (33) and Alabama (32).

CBS's 'Sportsline' projection pegs Alabama as the highest chance to win out (68.7), with Clemson second-best (59.7), followed by Washington (46.2), Oklahoma (38.2) and Notre Dame (34.7).

All of that group staying unbeaten to the end is highly unlikely, however, and the fight to the finish heats up this week.

CFP No. 3 Notre Dame takes on No. 7 Miami at 8 p.m. Saturday (ABC) in what's essentially an elimination game. The same is going on between No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 6 TCU (8 p.m. FOX).

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Alabama (61), Clemson (57), Georgia (57) and Oklahoma (42) the highest probability of making the final top-four, but the SEC numbers come with a caveat.

Chaos will need to reign, with Alabama and Georgia staying unbeaten to the SEC title game, for both to stay in the CFP. Auburn has the best chance of a two-loss team to make the Playoff, given an 88 percent probability if they win out - starting with hosting No. 1 Georgia Saturday (3:30 p.m. CBS). There's also an outside chance that Auburn wins out and Alabama follows the 2016 Ohio State model for the final spot without making the SEC title game.

Wisconsin is another team that will likely make the Playoff by winning out (95 percent) - a team, like Clemson and Oklahoma, that Notre Dame will be watching down the stretch.

FiveThirtyEight's model says the Fighting Irish will be the odd team out if Clemson, Oklahoma and Wisconsin all win out.

Three sites are sending Clemson to the Rose Bowl in CBS, USA TODAY and SB Nation, with the latter also projecting a Clemson-Georgia title game showdown in Atlanta.

Sports Illustrated and ESPN both feature Clemson-missing-CFP picks, with one ESPN projection calling for a Clemson-Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl and SI calling for Clemson-Notre Dame, with Miami in the Playoff.

The other ESPN projection is Clemson-Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and then Alabama-Clemson in the national title game.

Last and least, your author's Playoff projection is an Alabama-Georgia SEC title rematch in the Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma-Clemson in the Rose Bowl, where some chaos leaves the committee taking a one-loss Georgia over a one-loss Big Ten champ Wisconsin for the final CFP spot.

Editor's note: Projections figures were from before Washington lost at Stanford Friday night.