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110%er [9109]
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So which of the "experts" had any of this?
Dec 2, 2021, 7:24 PM
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Riley leaving for USC
Kelly leaving for LSU
Mendenhall stepping down
VaTech hiring the DC from PSU
The only thing anyone got remotely right was Napier to UF.
Point is - the experts are really only experts at talking about how they're experts.
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All-Conference [424]
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Re: So which of the "experts" had any of this?
Dec 2, 2021, 7:33 PM
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Facts…^^^^^^^^^this guy gets it.
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Hall of Famer [22305]
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Re: So which of the "experts" had any of this?
Dec 2, 2021, 7:34 PM
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Good point. 20+ years ago when I first started following the carousel I would make a chart. I would track each school with a list of candidates, who I thought the favorite was, and my prediction.
To give myself credit for a correct prediction I set a time line of 48 hours before it was announced.
I could get between 20 and 30 percent right almost every year.
Back then, it was far easier to separate wild internet rumors with actual facts.
Now, ADs have gotten a whole lot smarter (search firms, doing work through agents, undisclosed meeting places, etc.). Now, my predictions are nothing more than guesses. They are mainly based on what I think is logical, not on any information. (BTW, I'm 0-2 this year. I had Kiffin to Florida and I don't even remember the other one, but it was wrong.)
Some "Experts" know more than I, but I suspect most are just doing what I do.
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110%er [5972]
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The mention of your chart got me thinking,
Dec 2, 2021, 7:44 PM
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I’d like to see a chart of ADs and the hires they have made. How many out there go for the big fish only to have it bite them in the a$$ and how many gamble on a little known WR coach with no coordinator experience.
If I were an AD I’d be a little skeptical of the big names thrown around every year, the James Franklins of the world, and always assume they’re looking for their next dream job.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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There aren't any experts, just people with sources
Dec 2, 2021, 7:42 PM
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And some of those sources are better than others. Nobody is actually good at predicting this stuff. These coaching candidate lists are a mix of total common sense and names being floated by agents.
And the accuracy of the "### is expected to be the next coach at yyy" all depends on who it's coming from. If Bruce Feldman, for example, tweets something you can pretty much take it to the bank.
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CU Medallion [57135]
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Re: There aren't any experts, just people with sources
Dec 2, 2021, 8:33 PM
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x x x is censored???
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Hall of Famer [22305]
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Re: There aren't any experts, just people with sources
Dec 2, 2021, 9:13 PM
[ in reply to There aren't any experts, just people with sources ] |
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Feldman was way wrong in LSU. His source3s are far better than mine, and I pay attention to what he says, but he is still 90% basing his posts on his gut and what he thinks is the most accurate information he's getting.
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All-In [26512]
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Elliott would be a perfect fit at UVA
Dec 2, 2021, 8:33 PM
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... plus, he would only have to play Clemson once every 20 years.
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All-TigerNet [10782]
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Re: So which of the "experts" had any of this?
Dec 2, 2021, 8:39 PM
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POTD!
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CU Medallion [65467]
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Probably Mel Kiper. That percentage would be about as close
Dec 3, 2021, 8:08 AM
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as he is on NFL draft predictions. I really think they keep him around for the same reason that ABC Monday Night Football originally kept Howard Cosell around so long, people love to hate him.
No, wait, let me back off that. Howard Cosell was a knowledgeable, very smart guy who worked at his craft. People "loved to hate him" because he came off as an overinformed blowhard, which he in fact was. Mel Kiper is just an advertisement for Vaseline used as hair tonic.
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