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Dynasty Maker [3272]
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America. We've got a lot of issues...
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Jun 4, 2025, 5:43 PM
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I could go into all of the attacks on our institutions, and against the Law and Constitution, by this Administration. You've all seen it. It's unprecedented in modern times.
But for now, just look at the bond & currency markets. Not the stock market, which throws a tantrum every time a politician steps on a banana peel.
The bond markets are demanding higher interest on US debt. Currency markets are weakening the dollar. These two things do not generally happen at the same time, unless the markets are spooked or if they're dealing with third-world nation problems. The US - due to Trump's tariffs, and now this debt-buster Republican budget deal - now has to borrow at higher rates than countries like Greece and Italy, countries we used to laugh at.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-no-longer-a-serious-country
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/is-there-a-tariff-end-game
The bond & currency markets seem to be realizing that the US economy is in the hands of a nutcase, and it could get alot worse. There's a loss of confidence that's occurring, and this is very recent, and due to the current administration. We have been a flight to safety country for decades. Trump is managing to unravel that in months.
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Paw Master [17359]
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Yea, Charleston looks like rough times ahead.***
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Jun 4, 2025, 5:46 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [37958]
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L0L!!84!!***
Jun 4, 2025, 7:37 PM
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National Champion [8071]
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Re: America. We've got a lot of issues...
Jun 4, 2025, 5:55 PM
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No, the bond & currency markets are doing nothing due to the fact that you get your news from the echo chamber.
So we had zero problems just a few months ago, but now it's all a chit show? LOL
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Ultimate Tiger [35197]
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He didn't say that Capt hyperbole...
Jun 4, 2025, 9:32 PM
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Stop pissing out of discussions using this technique
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Oculus Spirit [43178]
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Scary
Jun 4, 2025, 6:05 PM
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you should hide
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National Champion [7237]
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Re: America. We've got a lot of issues...
Jun 4, 2025, 6:10 PM
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The problem is both parties spend money like drunken sailors.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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Did you know, if you fired all 3 million governemnt employees, that would
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Jun 4, 2025, 6:54 PM
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be equal to 4.3% of the federal budget.
That's it.
Here's another sobering fact, we don't have much spending we CAN cut.
If you look at a pie chart of our budget, 13% of it is Medicare, 13% is defense, 13% is interest on our debt. No one wants to cut those, and many want more military spending. Then you have 20% is social Security, untouchable. Medicaid is 10%. veterans benefits are 8%, and unemployment is 7%. So that leaves only around $1 trillion to make other cuts. And this is why DOGE came up so short, they expected to find MUCH more wasted money than they found. They trimed about $150 billion, and that's coming with a hefty price itself.
We go broke if we don't cut entitlements, period.
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Dynasty Maker [3272]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Eh....
Jun 4, 2025, 7:19 PM
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Congress should cut spending some. They can do that by cutting some waste out of Medicare Advantage, as well as having Medicare bargain more for drug prices. Then, we can cut some waste probably mostly in the defense department. Taxes should be increased on things like Social Security, and we could also raise taxes on higher incomes. It's not existential, but it is a problem they need to address.
The problem is that markets see erratic Trump behavior on tariffs, and then they see a Congress that's going along with that and also passing a bill that will simultaneously add more to the debt while throwing people off of their health insurance...all that stuff together....it's spooking the bond & currency markets in a way that hasn't happened in a very long time.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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Most people didn't live long enough to ever draw Social Security when it started
Jun 4, 2025, 7:27 PM
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If we wanted to go back to the original SSA, then we'd up the age to 78-80yo. Of course that SSN was never to be used as any form of ID either, lol.
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Dynasty Maker [3272]
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Luckily, we don't have to go back to the original SSA....
Jun 4, 2025, 7:35 PM
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I expect some changes coming to Social Security. But geez, we've had approaching 100 years, and it's never contributed to our debt, while at the same time lowering elderly poverty greatly (especially in combination with Medicare). There's no need to chop SS to pieces. Just a few tweaks to the tax & benefit formulas.
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National Champion [7237]
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Re: Did you know, if you fired all 3 million governemnt employees, that would
Jun 4, 2025, 8:40 PM
[ in reply to Did you know, if you fired all 3 million governemnt employees, that would ] |
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Looking at it statically, yes. Medicare and Social Security were paid into. They should be funded by those working today. Too many people of working age are not working and contributing. They are collecting aid and contributing to the problem.
There needs to be a flat income tax. Same rate top to bottom. Capital gains need to be taxed as regular income. Able bodied people should not be given benefits to not work.
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Top TigerNet [30386]
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National Champion [7899]
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Re: Did you know, if you fired all 3 million governemnt employees, that would
Jun 4, 2025, 9:37 PM
[ in reply to Did you know, if you fired all 3 million governemnt employees, that would ] |
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You're right but look at the hissy fit the lefts thrown over DOGE rooting out a relatively small amount of budget cuts. They're making up death counts of hundreds of thousands completely out of thin air and acting like it's a fact. If that's how they react to the lowest of low hanging fruit even being suggested at being cut, good luck getting either party to show the intestinal fortitude required to cut SS or Medicare. Whichever party blinks first and tries to "solve" this issue with legitimate cuts will be crucified by the other. Hence nothing gets done.
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Game Changer [2048]
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Imagine being so deep in the MAGA echo chamber
Jun 4, 2025, 9:50 PM
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that you aren’t aware of the reason why people are anti-DOGE.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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And this is why Powell and the Fed won't lower rates.
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Jun 4, 2025, 6:15 PM
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Bond yields are far too high, and most people don't know the Federal reserve has been buying bonds to try and lower the yields. They bought like $40 billion last month. The dollar is down 9% on the year, that's bad. This translates to NO RELIEF in interest rates for mortgages, credit cards, cars, etc. And no matter what inflation does, interest rates actually follow the bond markets, not the fed rates. If the fed lowers the rate, they risk igniting massive inflation.
Gold is $3,300/oz and climbing. That should speak volumes by itself. M2 money supply is higher than at the pandemic peak, so for all those complaining about money printing, it's being printed. Personal incomes are on pace to rise 9% on the year, which offsets the dollar decline. Real estate market is frozen, and will be for the foreseeable future.
Long story short, our debt is being called. In slow motion. Japan is seeing a worse bond market crisis than we have, but they're in the same boat. What you are witnessing, and will be witnessing, is a loss in faith in America, our debt, our currency, our laws, and our military and foreign policy.
And Trump just today says he thinks the debt ceiling should be eliminated. That IS NOT A MAGA position. He also pushed this bill through Congress knowing it would add $3T to our debt. DOGE fell flat on its face. A lot of good people have been had, republicans who fell for a used car salesman. It's all very sad IMHO. We lack the character to elect or support what is right anymore, right and left, and that means we ALL SINK.
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National Champion [8071]
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The loss in faith
Jun 4, 2025, 6:26 PM
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of the USA has less to do with Trump and more with the position we have put ourselves in over the last 50 years.
If the conditions you mention are the prerequisites, the same or worse would be happening under KH.
We are screwed either way IMO. I've said it for a LONG time. The best days of the USA are behind us.
But, I am thankful the federal gov't is anti-woke.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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What position have we put ourselves in?
Jun 4, 2025, 6:56 PM
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Beyond the position of world's largest economy, wealthiest country, most powerful military, what is the position here we are in? I mean we have been at the top of the world for 50 years. That's the position we've been in.
All we have to do is enact term limits for Congress and demand a balanced budget. Poof, fixed.
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National Champion [7237]
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Re: What position have we put ourselves in?
Jun 4, 2025, 8:43 PM
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We had a balanced budget under Clinton/Gingrich. Govt since then had thrown money to the wind.
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National Champion [7237]
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Dynasty Maker [3272]
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I'm worried more about stagflation that's coming....
Jun 4, 2025, 6:57 PM
[ in reply to And this is why Powell and the Fed won't lower rates. ] |
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We'll have high inflation combined with high unemployment. And then the FED will be trapped. They won't be able to raise rates, or lower them for that matter, without serious pain.
This isn't just a debt thing. That by itself, is way overblown. What's happening is that markets are realizing that MAGA in charge, and that economic insanity is starting to run free, both from Trump and our MAGA Congress. This wouldn't be happening under a KH administration.
I hope two things happen: 1) A magical tariff off-ramp appears (very unlikely); 2) The Senate rejects the House bill, and they start over (more likely than #1).
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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Dynasty Maker [3272]
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Yes, the BLS is one of the best things in our government...
Jun 4, 2025, 7:36 PM
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And they will be attacked under Trump. This is a real concern.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [109044]
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Always been a concern. Under Biden, and Obama, and Bush, and......
Jun 4, 2025, 7:49 PM
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Just seems to be even more of a danger under Trump Version 2.0.
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Dynasty Maker [3272]
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The BLS has generally always operated in good faith....
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Jun 4, 2025, 8:42 PM
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Everyone knows that their estimates are imperfect (that's why they're called estimates), and that true-ups happen, as part of their transparency.
Under Trump - unlike previous administrations - they will be relentlessly attacked if they start producing numbers he doesn't like.
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Top TigerNet [30386]
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Well copy the BOJs YCC policies
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Jun 4, 2025, 8:54 PM
[ in reply to I'm worried more about stagflation that's coming.... ] |
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Until we can't.
That's why I posted about the Japanese bond markets a few weeks ago.
Nothing is going to change. This is the status quo. We are completely ######.
Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom. Trump family just acquired another $3B in BTC (should be illegal). That's a signal not smoke.
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