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Replies: 25
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CU Guru [1590]
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Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 8:37 AM
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As of right now here are the things that affect Clemson:
Understand this before anyone gets bent out of shape. ONLY the top 4 champions from ANY conference will get first round byes. Doesn't matter WHAT CONFERENCE you come from, that would include the SEC, BIG10, BIG12, ACC, MOUNTAIN WEST, AAC... Doesnt matter! Look up the rules.
Currently it looks as if the SEC, BIG10 and MOUNTAIN WEST have seeds 1-3. The 4th is up for grabs with the winner of the Big12 and ACC. The AAC has pretty much eliminated itself from contention. Tulane losing on Thanksgiving knocked the AAC out of the playoffs.
Now what has to happen for Clemson?
1. Boise state. We don't necessarily need them to lose for us get in, however, if we want that bye we need them to lose Friday night. Right now they would be projected as the #3 seed. If they were to lose to UNLV they could fall COMPLETELY out of the rankings. As a matter of fact, this IS THE BIGGEST game to watch if you're a team from the Big12 or ACC in your championship game. UNLV would not have enough even with a win to jump the ACC or BIG 12 champ.
2. Let's say Boise does win, who gets the #4 seed? It would be the winner of the BIG 12 or the winner of the ACC. Right now it looks as if the winner of the big 12 would get that nod based off where teams would be ranked. How could that change? If Clemson comes in and spanks SMU and wins by 17-20 points, I think we would jump the big 12 champ.
Locks for the playoff:
Oregon
Ohio state
Texas
Penn state
Notre Dame
Georgia
Tennessee
SMU/Clemson
Iowa ST/Arizona ST
Boise st ONLY if they win/ lose and they are OUT
on the bubble:
Indiana 11-1
SMU if they lose 11-1 could be 11-2
Miami 10-2
South Carolina 9-3
Alabama 9-3
Ole Miss 9-3
Here is what I think happens after championship weekend:
top 4 seeds not where they're ranked:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Boise state
4. Clemson
other 8 in no order:
Iowa state
Ohio state
Georgia
Notre Dame
Penn state
Tennessee
Indiana
SMU
The last spot will come down to SMU, Alabama and South Carolina...
I hate to admit this, but I think South Carolina is better then the other 2, but I think SMU will get the nod. But it would not shock me if they dumped both SMU and South Carolina to put Alabama in. This entire playoff setup will come down to a few things.
1. What happens to Boise?
2. Will they do the right thing and put South Carolina in or SMU and not Alabama?
3. Will Clemson win big enough to jump the Big 12 champ?
That's it.... Go win the game in Charlotte. I'll be there. Go Tigers!
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1st Rounder [654]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 8:42 AM
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I think you’re spot on . Thanks for the analysis.👍
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 8:47 AM
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Thank you sir... I think everything comes down to what Boise will or won't do.
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Top TigerNet [29862]
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What happens if Boise loses?
Dec 2, 2024, 8:56 AM
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I expect Boise to be ranked 10-12 this week. That way the committee won't have too hard a time explaining why they penalized Boise for playing an extra game. (Which will be the argument they use to put UGA in the field even if they lose to Texas 52-0.)
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 9:15 AM
[ in reply to Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff ] |
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Other thing I didnt mention is there is a possibility that All 3 Clemson, SMU and Miami make the playoff but that would only happen if they leave Indiana out and Boise losses.
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Commissioner [1212]
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great breakdown I think you are spot on
Dec 1, 2024, 9:13 AM
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to get the bye, we need UNLV to beat Boise
or
Be ranked close enough to B12 teams that it will. E a toss up for the final bye.
It will be interesting to see where we fall to Tuesday.
Btw— I agree about SCU. Hate it, but they should get in due to how they are playing right now.
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: great breakdown I think you are spot on
Dec 1, 2024, 9:24 AM
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That it period.. we have to have Boise lose.
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Commissioner [1204]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 9:31 AM
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So play that scenario out if Boise wins, which is far more likely. At least I understand how it works now.
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 9:57 AM
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If Boise wins it will come down to if the playoff rankings think we’re better than the big 12.
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Ring of Honor [22709]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 9:34 AM
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I think SC losing to both Alabama and Ole Miss is going to keep them out. Ole Miss beat them 27-3 so if those 2 are fighting for a spot, that head to head has to mean quite a bit.
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 9:58 AM
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Head to head should always matter, but I do t think we live in that world anymore.
If we win it wouldn’t shock me if they put the coots in.
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Paw Warrior [4755]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 10:15 AM
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I watched Boise State Friday night. They looked very strong. But UNLV has had a great season and have beaten some very good teams. I am especially impressed with how they have rallied given their big QB controversy at the beginning of the year.
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 10:28 AM
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UNLV has been a very solid group. I will be watching Friday for sure.
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Clemson Conqueror [11115]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 10:20 AM
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I will be there also! Let's go Tigers! All you crybabies be sure not to show up and do not watch on TV. We don't need fans like you. Once the season is over then we can talk about changes that need to be made. Yes I do think we need some major changes but now is not the time. This team needs our support with so much on the line.
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
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Dec 1, 2024, 10:29 AM
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Exactly...
I think the guys played well yesterday minus the missed tackles on the QB, but sometimes you go to tip your cap and say the kid had a hell of a day.
Cade was in position to win the game and just made a mistake.
If that game is played 10 times I think both win 5.
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Associate AD [1002]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 10:39 AM
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Good analysis, but I have a few thoughts:
--Miami is toast (and should be)
--USC lost to Alabama, that wipes them out imo
--If Clemson beats SMU, then USC would trump SMU since they beat Clemson on the road (and won 6-straight)
So that leaves Indiana an Alabama as last 2 standing I think. I believe it'll be these two regardless of acccg result
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CU Guru [1590]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 1, 2024, 10:43 AM
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very possible... they would have to make a decision over SMU and gamecocks.
If I had to put money on it I think they would go SMU and Bama... Leaving the coots out. But I'm not sure of what they will do honestly, they make things up as they go.
The only thing for sure is, we would be in the playoff with a win.
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Top TigerNet [29904]
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I think we could jump Iowa state
Dec 1, 2024, 10:53 AM
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But probably not Arizona State with how the rankings were last week.
I think it will end up being
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia
10. Indiana
11. Clemson (#12 if it’s Bama)
12. SMU (if they lose close, Bama if lopsided loss to us)
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1st Rounder [692]
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UNLV just takes Boises spot with win, right?
Dec 1, 2024, 11:12 AM
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Though they would for sure get the 12 spot. And guarantee the ACC and Big12 get byes along with Big 10 and SEC, correct?
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: UNLV just takes Boises spot with win, right?
Dec 1, 2024, 1:07 PM
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They only get a spot, not a top 4 seed with a bye. Only Boise can get that bye.
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All-TigerNet [5820]
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So are Coots odds better or worse if Clemson wins ACCCG?
Dec 1, 2024, 1:13 PM
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That would be some slick Chicken sh!t if they have to pull for Clemson.
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CU Guru [1590]
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Re: So are Coots odds better or worse if Clemson wins ACCCG?
Dec 1, 2024, 3:40 PM
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They 100% have to pull for Clemson... Don't let that ratbastard Beamer make you think he really wants us to win, just because.
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Freshman [4]
TigerPulse: 98%
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 2, 2024, 8:14 AM
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If Clemson beats SMU, we get a first round bye or a home game against the number 12 seed. The latter might be fun. 😄
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Rival Killer [2608]
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Re: Your offical breakdown of the playoff
Dec 2, 2024, 8:35 AM
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If we don’t get a bye we will be seeded 11 or 12
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CU Medallion [20883]
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+1 Thanks for investigation and post!***
Dec 2, 2024, 8:36 AM
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Top TigerNet [29862]
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Very good analysis. My only quibble is...
Dec 2, 2024, 8:53 AM
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... I don't think there are as many bubble teams as you do.
I think Bama has the distinct advantage over Miami and Sakerlina.
Clemson wins and the committee will have to equal last year's contortionism to put Bama in over SMU. They may or may not do that. So, Clemson wins means Bama and SMU are fighting for the last spot in the field. SMU wins and Bama is in.
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Replies: 25
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